'08 New Hampshire Results, and my '12 prediction
- Thread starter Michael Landon
- Start date
The_Ruffneck
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I don't see 1st happening , they vote on diebold electronic voting machines there remember?
I do however think Paul will finish second , i just don't see any candidate that they can pump up to ~20% in time to combat Paul , no-one is close.
I do however think Paul will finish second , i just don't see any candidate that they can pump up to ~20% in time to combat Paul , no-one is close.
I had higher expectations for NH thank I did for Iowa back in '08...yeah, that turned out pretty well. Personally, I'm hoping for a solid 2nd place and a 20 to 25 percent polling number, but something tells me we're gonna get screwed. NH is Diebold central, innit?
Warrior_of_Freedom
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This is why we get disappointed. We overestimate. The same people were estimating we win Iowa by a wide margin. If we get 1st it's not going to be more than 0.1%. THOUGH every 1% we take away from Romney, he statistically loses 2%.
speciallyblend
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A win in nh is anything over 21% for ron paul for a solid 2nd place finish and a 1st and 2nd place margin under 10% in the single digits between romney and ron paul. I was deeply dissapointed in iowa. I was expecting a 2nd place finish in iowa but hey top 3 in iowa is fine.
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Nice find!
Right now (according to the latest polls) we have roughly 40,000 - 55,000 voters in our corner if you go by 2008's turnout.
anaconda
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I'll bet Santorum comes in less than 10%. Easily.
Svenskar_för_Ron_Paul
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Imagine if MSM would push Ron Paul.... Then he would be leading with a big margin in NH, and basically everywhere...
PaulConventionWV
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The pessimist isn't always the objective one. So many people act like you have to be pessimistic in order for your views to reflect reality. I don't think Ron will get third, considering his recent trends. He will probably be second.
LiveForHonortune
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The debate is the key guys.
It could mean the difference between an Oops Perry or a Gingrich surge.
It could mean the difference between an Oops Perry or a Gingrich surge.
The_Ruffneck
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I think they will let him get second.
My opinion is Perry stayed in the race after suspending his campaign because he got word from the GOP elite that they were going to stage South Carolina to give him good results.
South Carolina could be 1.Gingrich 2.Perry 3.Romney 4.Paul.This would give the "MSM" ammo to use in their fringe candidate barrage.
Michael Landon
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Friday morning bump so that others can pile on me for my optimistic view that Ron Paul will surge and win in New Hampshire. Using math and historical trends, I'm sticking by my view. Others, who have been hurt by Iowa's results hold a more pessimistic view, that's not me, because the math and historical trends for Iowa didn't show that Ron Paul would win, the polls leading into Iowa did, that was the mistake for most of us when we thought that he win in Iowa.
And like I said earlier, if I'm wrong so be it. But I don't think I will be.
- ML
And like I said earlier, if I'm wrong so be it. But I don't think I will be.
- ML
I see you were around in 2007. It is going to take all you say to win. Remember the ballot boxes being chased down the road trying to hide them? I think it can be done if people google Santorum corruption and those you mention show up and vote. Need a big turn out for Ron to make it hard for them to try and fix the vote this time.
The Goat
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This would still be a win for Paul. romney has to break 38% or he is going to take some heat for not turning out his supporters in the state he was viewed as running away with.
SenseForMiles
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Not to be a debbie downer, but Dr. Paul was polling in 1st/2nd place for weeks in Iowa and still ended up in third. New Hampshire seems to be even more "undecided" than Iowa was. Alot of people here seem to think the undecideds could break for Paul, but I completely disagree with that. I think those that support our man have already decided to do so. He may get 1% of those undecideds, but the majority will break for one of the establishment candidates. This is why I believe Santorum will come in 2nd place again ahead of Paul, regardless of what the current polls are saying. Ron has a solid 17% there, Santorum a solid 8%, but he'll get an extra 10-12% come primary day, just because those undecideds will believe he is the only one that could beat Romney. It's mostly soft support, but I think he'll get enough of that support to come in 2nd place. Believe me, I hope I'm wrong, but with such a huge undecided percentage there right now, it is the only logical outcome imo.
iamse7en
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Surprised to see someone who's been following RP since 2007 to predict a win with 37% of the vote. I will do a naked snow angel if RP even breaks 30% in NH. Mark it. I'll post pictures to prove it. Primaries are more easily manipulated than Caucuses.
Peace&Freedom
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My NH Prediction:
Romney: 31%
Paul: 27%
Gingrich: 19%
Santorum: 17%
Huntsman: 11%
Perry/etc: 6%
Romney: 31%
Paul: 27%
Gingrich: 19%
Santorum: 17%
Huntsman: 11%
Perry/etc: 6%
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