Michael Landon
Member
- Joined
- Dec 22, 2007
- Messages
- 2,147
Candidate/Votes/Percentage/Delegates
John McCain: 88,571 / 37.71% / 7
Mitt Romney: 75,546 / 32.17% / 4
Mike Huckabee: 26,859 / 11.44% / 1
Rudy Giuliani: 20,439 / 8.7% / 0
Ron Paul: 18,308 / 7.8% / 0
Fred Thompson: 2,890 / 1.23% / 0
The reason I bring this up is this, Romney received about 30% of the vote in Iowa in '08 and '12. So I'm assuming he'll receive about the same amount in New Hampshire this time around that he received in '08, 32%. I see Santorum bringing in about the same as the Huckabee vote from '08 with Huntsman taking the Guiliani percentage. That leads me with Paul's spot, McCain's spot and Thompson's last place spot. So here is how I ultimately see this years voting going:
1) Ron Paul - 37% of the vote, this is mainly because of the independents, libertarian/conservatives and tea partiers.
2) Mitt Romney - 32%, that is his ceiling and it'll be what he get's this time around.
3) Rick Santorum - 11%, that is the amount of strictly social conservatives I see in NH.
4) John Huntsman - 8%, the liberal/moderate vote goes to him.
5) Newt Gingrich - 6%
6) Rick Perry - 4%, the remaining scraps for Gingrich and Perry
According to CNN in '08, "the religious voters made up 14 percent of all Republican primary voters in New Hampshire." I just wanted to note that because a big part of Huckabee's and Santorum's supporters are the religious voters.
According to wikipedia's entry on the '08 primary, "Independent voters made up 44 percent of the New Hampshire electorate." This is the key. Also note the polls leading up to the '08 election: "Average support from polls were McCain, 31.8%; Romney, 28.2%; Huckabee, 12.2%; Giuliani, 9.3%; Paul, 8.2%; Thompson, 2.2%." According to the polls and the final results, McCain ended up gaining 6% and Romney gained 4% while the rest stayed fairly close to what they ended up receiving, but to truly see where Paul's support comes from this year you need to look at the amount of voters that voted in the Democratic Primary and you'll see close to 290,000 votes. More than 50,000 more than the amount of the Republican Primary (240,000). My point, there are almost 300,000 votes that won't be going to Clinton or Obama that Paul can pull from.
According to ABCNEWS in '08, "Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just over four in 10 voters in the New Hampshire Democratic primary are independents, compared with 48 percent in 2004 and a record 50 percent in 1992. In the Republican primary, preliminary results indicate again that about four in 10 are independents, similar to the previous high of 42 percent in 2000." This is where Paul pulls in a big part of his support, as the Iowa exit polls noted.
According to the NYTimes in '08, the exit polls for the Democratic primary in New Hampshire showed the following:
33% of voters were 18-39 years old, with Obama receiving 60% of those 18-24. (95,000 voters)
19% of voters were voting in their first primary, with Obama receiving 47% of those voters. (55,000 voters)
98% of voters were "somewhat or very worried" about the direction of the nations economy, with 38% feeling that this was their most important issue.
31% of voters felt the Iraq War was the most important issue. (90,000 voters)
54% of voters wanted a candidate that could "bring about needed change." (156,000 voters)
94% of voters wanted a timetable or immediate removal of our troops from Iraq.
These are all voters that didn't vote in the Republican primary in New Hampshire and hopefully, Ron Paul will pull a decent percentage of these voters next week.
- ML
John McCain: 88,571 / 37.71% / 7
Mitt Romney: 75,546 / 32.17% / 4
Mike Huckabee: 26,859 / 11.44% / 1
Rudy Giuliani: 20,439 / 8.7% / 0
Ron Paul: 18,308 / 7.8% / 0
Fred Thompson: 2,890 / 1.23% / 0
The reason I bring this up is this, Romney received about 30% of the vote in Iowa in '08 and '12. So I'm assuming he'll receive about the same amount in New Hampshire this time around that he received in '08, 32%. I see Santorum bringing in about the same as the Huckabee vote from '08 with Huntsman taking the Guiliani percentage. That leads me with Paul's spot, McCain's spot and Thompson's last place spot. So here is how I ultimately see this years voting going:
1) Ron Paul - 37% of the vote, this is mainly because of the independents, libertarian/conservatives and tea partiers.
2) Mitt Romney - 32%, that is his ceiling and it'll be what he get's this time around.
3) Rick Santorum - 11%, that is the amount of strictly social conservatives I see in NH.
4) John Huntsman - 8%, the liberal/moderate vote goes to him.
5) Newt Gingrich - 6%
6) Rick Perry - 4%, the remaining scraps for Gingrich and Perry
According to CNN in '08, "the religious voters made up 14 percent of all Republican primary voters in New Hampshire." I just wanted to note that because a big part of Huckabee's and Santorum's supporters are the religious voters.
According to wikipedia's entry on the '08 primary, "Independent voters made up 44 percent of the New Hampshire electorate." This is the key. Also note the polls leading up to the '08 election: "Average support from polls were McCain, 31.8%; Romney, 28.2%; Huckabee, 12.2%; Giuliani, 9.3%; Paul, 8.2%; Thompson, 2.2%." According to the polls and the final results, McCain ended up gaining 6% and Romney gained 4% while the rest stayed fairly close to what they ended up receiving, but to truly see where Paul's support comes from this year you need to look at the amount of voters that voted in the Democratic Primary and you'll see close to 290,000 votes. More than 50,000 more than the amount of the Republican Primary (240,000). My point, there are almost 300,000 votes that won't be going to Clinton or Obama that Paul can pull from.
According to ABCNEWS in '08, "Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just over four in 10 voters in the New Hampshire Democratic primary are independents, compared with 48 percent in 2004 and a record 50 percent in 1992. In the Republican primary, preliminary results indicate again that about four in 10 are independents, similar to the previous high of 42 percent in 2000." This is where Paul pulls in a big part of his support, as the Iowa exit polls noted.
According to the NYTimes in '08, the exit polls for the Democratic primary in New Hampshire showed the following:
33% of voters were 18-39 years old, with Obama receiving 60% of those 18-24. (95,000 voters)
19% of voters were voting in their first primary, with Obama receiving 47% of those voters. (55,000 voters)
98% of voters were "somewhat or very worried" about the direction of the nations economy, with 38% feeling that this was their most important issue.
31% of voters felt the Iraq War was the most important issue. (90,000 voters)
54% of voters wanted a candidate that could "bring about needed change." (156,000 voters)
94% of voters wanted a timetable or immediate removal of our troops from Iraq.
These are all voters that didn't vote in the Republican primary in New Hampshire and hopefully, Ron Paul will pull a decent percentage of these voters next week.
- ML
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