Zogby Iowa trends: Paul at 10% heading to 3rd over Thompson and McCain

[mathamagician]

Zogby Poll: Paul 10% in Iowa

Tied with McCain and 1% behind Thompson. If this poll is right then Paul getting 3rd is a cake walk.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

 

[Micahyah]

http://www.c-span.org/pdf/zogby/Reuters_CSPAN_Zogby_Day_5_NR_010308.pdf

Republicans – Iowa Tracking
12-30/1-2-08
12-29/1-1-08
12–28/31
12–27/30
12–26/29
Huckabee
31%
28%
29%
29%
29%
Romney
25%
26%
25%
27%
28%
McCain
10%
12%
12%
13%
11%
Thompson
11%
12%
10%
8%
8%
Giuliani
6%
7%
8%
7%
8%
Paul
10%
9%
7%
7%
8%
Hunter
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%

The top number is the last day. You see we are rising daily.

 

[Micahyah]

http://www.c-span.org/pdf/zogby/Reuters_CSPAN_Zogby_Day_5_NR_010308.pdf

You just beat me to post this.

Double digits and trending upward. Looking good for 3rd place.

 

[RonRules]

I need to repeat this:

Don't forget that this is a TRACKING poll. It is an average of several previous days of polling. Each day they poll, they drop the last day in the average in the new day. This causes a damping of the results and does not reflect the immediate reality. This is how polsters can play with the numbers and claim to be honest.

With tracking polls, candidates on the downside are showing higher than they really are and upcoming candidates (like Ron Paul) are lower than reality.

Tracking polls do prevent daily spikes up/down which would otherwise make people go crazy. If the raw data would be shown, my guess is Ron Paul is at least at 15% right now. Huckabee is going down fast and is probably no more than 25% right now. Couple that with the fact that only land lines are being called, independents, democrats are not called, etc, you probably can expect RP to be at a tie with 25% or win this one.

------------------------------
The Paulite RevolUTION

 

[mathamagician]

I'd hope for that but I wouldn't expect it. I always hope for the best but expect the worst. Less dissappointment that way

 

[acroso]

Justice is coming baby!

We're coming!

 

[ashlux]

I can't find it on RCP's site. I saw it there last night though. I guess they removed it..

 

[mathamagician]

Sorry

 

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

that aint the last day number, it's the last 4-day avg number

meaning zogby has him @ 12 at least

 

[Bradley in DC]

Good news, I suspect the trend lines are right, but Zogby is not one of the more reliable polls.

 

[Duckman]

Peaking at just the right time!

 

[RonRules]

This is a TRACKING poll guys. It's a long average of previous days. Ron Paul is MUCH higher right now and Huckabee much lower.

You'll all see what I mean tonight.

 

[bjrnet]

Optimistic Prediction

OK, I took a look at these poll numbers. Here is my prediction based on these results:


Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby Poll
____________Poll 1/2/08 Converts New %
Huckabee_____31.00%___2.00%_____0.62%_____30.38%
Romney_______25.00%___2.00%_____0.50%_____24.50%
Thompson_____11.00%___2.00%_____0.22%_____10.78%
McCain_______10.00%___2.00%_____0.20%______9.80%
Paul_________10.00%
Guiliani______6.00%___2.00%_____0.12%______5.88%
Undecided_____6.00%__50.00%_____3.00%______3.00%
Hunter________1.00%___2.00%_____0.02%______0.98%

____________100.00%_______________________85.32%

New Ron Paul Estimate = 14.68%
Which reflects 3rd place finish in Iowa

What I did above is be a bit optimistic. If Ron Paul caucus goers can convert 2% of other voters and 50% of the undecided voters, Ron Paul should have no problem coming in 3rd. That is a win in my book!!!!!!!!

If the polls are way off and don't really reflect Iowan voters then who knows, Ron Paul could make it to 2nd place.

It would be amazing and shock the world if Ron Paul came in 1st.

We will know tonight!!!!!!!!

 

[RonPaulFTFW]

cant wait till tonight and we can see some reality.

 

[BGDubb]

50% seems unrealistic to me....

 

[Perry]

mathmegician just beat me to post this, so a mod can delete this thread

No. You're the first individual to request that their duplicate thread be deleted. I say you deserve a gold metal or something.

 

[mkrfctr]

No. You're the first individual to request that their duplicate thread be deleted. I say you deserve a gold metal or something.

doubt it. besides the people who know wtf they are doing generally don't f-up making a dup post, or if they do, know to use the alert function to directly ask an admin to delete or merge the thread

so maybe like a tin star or something.

 

[Zibblu]

This is the first time Paul has been at 10% in this poll I think. It's really going to be interesting to see how his real results compare to the polls. It really all comes down to this, will he really best the polls by a significant margin? If he does, Game On! If he doesn't... I'm both very excited and a bit nervous. I feel like this is either the beginning or the beginning of the end.

 

[greenwave88]

Top three gets Dr. Paul the recognition of being a top tier candidate and forcing the MSM to give him more coverage. That's a win in my book.