[Youtube] Austrian vs. Keynesian Economists

Just want to take a step back for a second. You are talking about people studying and thinking about this Keynesian economic model that you have in mind. Are you telling us that if this model you have in mind was actually applied that we'd have different results than we having using the current model that is being applied?

I don't understand the point of digging in to this model if it falls flat on its face right out of the gate.

That is, why even bother using a model that starts off saying that we have to manipulate free market rates, rather than let the market set the rates? Do the people who study and apply the Keynesian economic model think about the consequences of manipulating the free market interest rates rather than allowing the free market to set those rates?

It seems like the Keynesian economic model goes out of its way to try and put shackles around the free market via price manipulation. If we accept that the Keynesian model is the best we have, must we also accept that the model does not allow for prices to be set organically and naturally?

I'd rather have the next best thing if it means we will actually have free markets that function the way they are supposed to. Wouldn't you? If you are telling me that the two are not mutually exclusive, I'd like to know how this new Keynesian model plans on dealing with the free market revolt against price fixing that will come one way or another.

I think this is a pretty good argument for why the basic keynesian model isn't the whole story, but that isn't a reason to dismiss the whole model as a positive description of how economies work. It has several basic predictions. On the monetary side, increasing interest rates tends to reduce output and there is a positive correlation in the short run between inflation and output. These are two of the strongest empirical facts about Macroeconomic data in the last several hundred years.

Of course, everyone in academia realizes that these models aren't enough to model the crisis. I think an honest economist may tell you that the problem with the models is that they assume people are too smart and predict the future too well. But the solution to that is not to throw everything out the window, but model beliefs and preferences of consumers better. A lot of the more promising work is about the idea of a leverage cycle and the corresponding asset booms. But of course you need stupid consumers to get a leverage cycle.

My bet is if the Austrians actually wrote down their models, they would find the same type of irrationality underlying a lot of the results.

Another approach economists are taking in response to the crisis is to more explicitly model the financial sector of the economy and what we call financial frictions that prevent economies from achieving optimal outcomes.
 
Austrian vs. Keynesian

These two economic models can be viewed as:

  • Keynesian: Privileged class controlling the money supply and interest rates while manipulating society.
  • Austrian: Laissez-faire free-market capitalism allowed to operate in a liberated world.
 
These two economic models can be viewed as:

  • Keynesian: Privileged class controlling the money supply and interest rates while manipulating society.
  • Austrian: Laissez-faire free-market capitalism allowed to operate in a liberated world.

No thats not true at all. You can be a Keynesian and support free markets. Keynesian economics is a positive description of how economies work. It is not a normative policy recommendation. Keynesian economists disagree about policy.
 
No thats not true at all. You can be a Keynesian and support free markets. Keynesian economics is a positive description of how economies work. It is not a normative policy recommendation. Keynesian economists disagree about policy.
Sure, Keynesians always argue about policy. They have all been wrong since the 30's.

Laissez-faire free-market capitalism is self-regulating and cannot operate efficiently when policies are forced on it. True capitalism operates on a contractual basis ... rule of law - "Sound" monetary systems.

Policies are only necessary when markets are manipulated - Counterfeiting "Fiat" monetary systems.

Policy: a high-level overall plan embracing the general goals and acceptable procedures especially of a governmental body.
 
Sure, Keynesians always argue about policy. They have all been wrong since the 30's.

Laissez-faire free-market capitalism is self-regulating and cannot operate efficiently when policies are forced on it. True capitalism operates on a contractual basis ... rule of law - "Sound" monetary systems.

Policies are only necessary when markets are manipulated - Counterfeiting "Fiat" monetary systems.

Policy: a high-level overall plan embracing the general goals and acceptable procedures especially of a governmental body.

This is just clearly not true. First you are saying all Keynesians have always been wrong even though they disagree, which is just a fundamental internal contradiction. The first sentence is not logically consistent with the second sentence.

The notion that government can never improve on the free market outcome is also just clearly wrong. Think about a simple case of an externality or a public good.

Say everyone in society values a park at 5 dollars and the total cost to society is 50 dollars and there are 20 people. Then the total benefit is 100 dollars but the park will not be supplied in a free market because the private benefit of each person is 5 dollars, less than the 50 needed to build it.

You could say, why don't they all get together and agree to build the park together. The problem with this is that every individual will want to deviate from that agreement and get the benefits of the park without paying their share of the cost.

You could say, why can't people that don't contribute be excluded from using it. There are clearly public goods that once they are produced, its very expensive to prevent other people from using them, thats half the point of a public good.

We can go on to disagree about whether a situation with a tax and government is better or worse than the market outcome of no park, but the notion that it is impossible for policy to improve market outcomes is clearly wrong.
 
This is just clearly not true. First you are saying all Keynesians have always been wrong even though they disagree, which is just a fundamental internal contradiction. The first sentence is not logically consistent with the second sentence.
Keynesians promote criminal activity which is always wrong. Central banks creating money out-of-nothing and government protection of fractional reserve banking is fraud. It is clearly fraud. It was designed as a criminal transfer of wealth, and it worked well for 97 years, so far. The elite own 1/3 of the world's wealth. Keynesians are accomplices.
The notion that government can never improve on the free market outcome is also just clearly wrong.
Government has limited legitimate functions. Manipulating markets (giving advantage to one person while denying opportunity to another) is not one of them.
Think about a simple case of an externality or a public good.
~ I'm thinking ~ the free market of ideas ... the Internet. Works excellent.
Say everyone in society values a park at 5 dollars and the total cost to society is 50 dollars and there are 20 people. Then the total benefit is 100 dollars but the park will not be supplied in a free market because the private benefit of each person is 5 dollars, less than the 50 needed to build it.

You could say, why don't they all get together and agree to build the park together. The problem with this is that every individual will want to deviate from that agreement and get the benefits of the park without paying their share of the cost.

You could say, why can't people that don't contribute be excluded from using it. There are clearly public goods that once they are produced, its very expensive to prevent other people from using them, thats half the point of a public good.
Government has no business in market policy, but public policy is different.
Alexis de Tocqueville writes,"A nation may establish a free government, but without municipal institutions it cannot have the spirit of liberty." Local governments can work with public policy.
We can go on to disagree about whether a situation with a tax and government is better or worse than the market outcome of no park, but the notion that it is impossible for policy to improve market outcomes is clearly wrong.
Government involvement in market policy is counterproductive to prosperity and clearly no friend of liberty.
 
@ Ababba although i disagree with most of what you say i have to thank you for being very respectful. Most times i see a pro-Keynesian debate they are dicks, you have been far from that. Its good to have a calm debate.
 
I thought of an interesting hypothetical situation. Lets say the economy is on a commodity standard and lets say the value of the commodity backed currency is expected to grow at -2% next year, so the dollar is expected to increase in value. Further lets say the optimal market real rate of interest is 1%. Now the question is how does a free market get us to the correct nominal interest rate (which is -1%)? The nominal interest rate can't be lower than zero because you can always earn zero by just holding currency. A fiat currency can obviously solve this problem, but how does a commodity currency solve it?

I think the reason this debate can remain respectful is that I don't think monetary policy can do a lot of good, even if I agree with the Keynesian model to some extent, the impact of even the best monetary policy is a slight positive benefit. In the 70s and earlier monetary policy was much more harmful and definitely did more harm than good.
 
Keynesians promote criminal activity which is always wrong. Central banks creating money out-of-nothing and government protection of fractional reserve banking is fraud. It is clearly fraud. It was designed as a criminal transfer of wealth, and it worked well for 97 years, so far. The elite own 1/3 of the world's wealth. Keynesians are accomplices..

This is similar to saying that Libertarians are crazy radical cop killers because of Richard Poplawski. Clearly although he did bad things and agrees with libertarians on some issues, whether the libertarian philosophy is correct has nothing to do with his actions. Even if some Keynesians are criminals, it really doesn't say much about whether Keynesian economics describes the economy better than another economic system.

It seems too much like Keynesian is just the word for whatever bad you see in the world of economic policy rather than a more accurate description of what a Keynesian is.

That being said, inflation that is fully expected to ocurr by itself is not a transfer of wealth, it is a tax on currency but it is not a tax on savings because nominal interest rates are higher when there is higher inflation. Currency is such a small fraction of savings that this is very small. A surprise inflation is a different story.
 
I think thats the problem I was trying to get at. Neither Keynesians nor Austrians have been right about the past 10 years. Both have made good and bad predictions. You can make videos by choosing either side's good predictions and the other side's bad predictions. The point is that this isn't a good way of determining which theory is true unless one side gets the overwhelming number of predictions right.

I think Keynesian and Austrian economists would agree that hyperinflations have always been a monetary phenomena. We will have a hyperinflation if the Federal Reserve chooses to monetize a large portion of the debt. If they only monetize a small portion of the debt, it should lead to a little bit higher inflation but not a hyperinflation. In the short run, inflation doesn't have to be linked to monetary growth if prices are sticky, but in the long run it does.

Keynesian economists would agree with you that monetary policy has no long run effect on the level of output. It seems like you would agree with Keynesian economists that monetary policy can have a short run effect on output as implied by your post above. So far, its not clear where you disagree with Keynesian economics as a positive theory of the economy.

Its a different matter entirely to disagree with the normative policy implications of some Keynesian economists. The consensus of mainstream economists is that monetary policy has a role in stabilizing the economy. Even if it can't affect output in the long run, monetary policy can lower the peaks and raise the troughs of a business cycle. They do not believe that monetary policy should be used to permanently prop up an economy forever. The consensus is that the stagflation of the 70's proved that expectations matter, and even if a phillips curve exists in the short run, it can't be used to permanently raise output with higher inflation. This is the type of economics which Ben Bernanke subscribes to.

Because your portrayal of Keynesian economics is not this mainstream idea of it, I think you are attacking a straw man.

You are saying something here i agree with.

1) mainstream does not equal Keynesian economics... (common misconception)
2) Mainstreams have similar concerns as Austrians do regard hyper-inflation. We have much more in common than we like to admit. (at least at the core of the logic)
3) Keynesian economists are not what will create hyper-inflation (my opinion: Politics in the FED will. If the FED doesn't tell the government it is on its own when those unfunded liabilities hit 'em hard... hello Zimbabwe. If it is free enough from political influence... the government is forced to cut spending or default... and that doesn't necessarily have to happen in the next few years)
4) mainstream economists do not believe in creating capital in the long run by printing money (again, they are not that stupid)
5) If we can say all Keynesians represent mainstream economists and Paul krugman represents all mainstream economists... then we need to accept that all classical economists are Austrians, and Peter schiff represents all Austrians.... I happen to think that kind of thinking is misplaced. This video is not an attack on keynsian economists. It an attack on Paul Krugman followers. It is important to make that distinction.

Regarding the above, why do I still like the Austrian economists?

I detest utilitarianism. Whether Austrian economics is the most effective or not (though i think it is), for me is not the true concern. I am concerned with the morality of economic theory. Austrian economists are the only ones who make that accommodation for me.

If everything Austrians have predicted in the last 100 years is proven wrong, I would still be an Austrian Economic mind.

Do I like the FED?
of course not... deliberate inflation, and a standing incentive for government to ban competing currency... forcing inflation down their throats? That is immoral in my opinion... and only the surface of it. The FED is a monument to utilitarianism, assuming some selective elite can determine the fate of everyone elses finances in the name of a greater good. The ends don't justify the means... especially if they happen to be wrong (and even if they are right).
 
I thought of an interesting hypothetical situation. Lets say the economy is on a commodity standard and lets say the value of the commodity backed currency is expected to grow at -2% next year, so the dollar is expected to increase in value. Further lets say the optimal market real rate of interest is 1%. Now the question is how does a free market get us to the correct nominal interest rate (which is -1%)? The nominal interest rate can't be lower than zero because you can always earn zero by just holding currency. A fiat currency can obviously solve this problem, but how does a commodity currency solve it?

I think the reason this debate can remain respectful is that I don't think monetary policy can do a lot of good, even if I agree with the Keynesian model to some extent, the impact of even the best monetary policy is a slight positive benefit. In the 70s and earlier monetary policy was much more harmful and definitely did more harm than good.

Forgive me if i mis understand you...

but you are asking how does the market correct interest rates if there is 2% deflation and a free market interest rate of 1%? Well, a correction here, would simply be for banks to raise interest rates unless savings permits such a low interest rate. hence, there is not correction because it is already correct. If there isn't enough savings to create incentive to risk funds for a 1% rate when simply holding it would create a 2% yield then rates will simply rise. the result of this would be a decrease in consumption and an increased incentive to save as the interest rate payout rises. Eventually savings would build up enough to lower interest rates back down. Whatever the interest rate is, is the correct rate...

As far as interest rates go... in the free market savings and investment are hand in hand. They are self correcting. As you probably know this isn't refuted by Keynesians even. The dispute here is, how long will self-correction take.

I feel like I misunderstood your question... I may be back to edit this later ;)
 
You are jumping all over and contradicting yourself.

This is where actually writing down realistic models of the economy using equations will help you realize some of these things, instead of just assuming you are correct. The standard New Keynesian model tells us that inflation targeting is an optimal way of setting market interest rates. If inflation is higher than your target, you should raise interest rates and if inflation is lower than your target you should lower interest rates to get closer to the natural rate of interest.

Why would I want to target a CPI rate (which is what you mean by inflation targeting)? And I dont care that a model incapable of predicting and modeling reality says that it makes some variable optimal.

This is another example of attacking a straw man. Your critiques of Keynesian economics are critiques of something that you made up and has very little to do with what people that study Keynesian economics actually think about.

This are your own words:

Modern New Keynesian monetary policy is basically the idea that the Fed should move the interest rate around to the natural rate of interest, which is defined as that rate of interest which would occur at the free market outcome.

I think the fact that Austrians are not willing to write down and calibrate a model of the economy shows that you can't take Austrian economics seriously. There have been many instances where I thought I clearly understand the intuition for something, but then when you actually write down a model, you get the opposite result. Math constrains the ability of people to just make stuff up. The fact that Austrians are not willing to put these constraints on themselves means that they are probably making mistakes like this all the time.

And then you check reality and you get the opposite result that in the model. What does that tell you about the model?

Until you discover a way to mathematically model human action your economic models are just vague aproximations, in some cases with some pedagogical value and thats all, and in most cases they are just useless.

I am an engineer, so I know the advantages of mathematics, but I also understand its limitations, which is something that most economists prefer to ignore.
 
Forgive me if i mis understand you...

but you are asking how does the market correct interest rates if there is 2% deflation and a free market interest rate of 1%? Well, a correction here, would simply be for banks to raise interest rates unless savings permits such a low interest rate. hence, there is not correction because it is already correct. If there isn't enough savings to create incentive to risk funds for a 1% rate when simply holding it would create a 2% yield then rates will simply rise. the result of this would be a decrease in consumption and an increased incentive to save as the interest rate payout rises. Eventually savings would build up enough to lower interest rates back down. Whatever the interest rate is, is the correct rate...

As far as interest rates go... in the free market savings and investment are hand in hand. They are self correcting. As you probably know this isn't refuted by Keynesians even. The dispute here is, how long will self-correction take.

I feel like I misunderstood your question... I may be back to edit this later ;)

I was just wondering how a commodity standard would deal with the zero nominal lower bound. Nominal interest rates cannot be negative because you can just hold currency. Under a commodity standard, there are cases where you would need a negative nominal rate to get the optimal level of the real interest rate. Therefore, it seems impossible for a commodity standard+free markets to always get the real interest rate correct.
 
And then you check reality and you get the opposite result that in the model. What does that tell you about the model?

Until you discover a way to mathematically model human action your economic models are just vague aproximations, in some cases with some pedagogical value and thats all, and in most cases they are just useless.

I am an engineer, so I know the advantages of mathematics, but I also understand its limitations, which is something that most economists prefer to ignore.


This is obviously hard, I realize that. That doesn't mean we should give up. It also doesn't mean the alternative of zero math zero empirical work is better. I think its clearly not. Both data and math are ways of putting constraints on models so we can't just say anything.

When the model doesn't match reality you seek to improve the model. You hope that the model can forecast out of sample. This would be the ultimate judge of success for a model.
 
This is obviously hard, I realize that. That doesn't mean we should give up. It also doesn't mean the alternative of zero math zero empirical work is better. I think its clearly not. Both data and math are ways of putting constraints on models so we can't just say anything.

When the model doesn't match reality you seek to improve the model. You hope that the model can forecast out of sample. This would be the ultimate judge of success for a model.

How exactly can you use math and empiricism to predict human behavior? Pyschology, sociology, incentivizations, reason, & logic are imminently superior in every aspect concerning human behavior, insight, and preferences than trying to plug in useless models which spew out wrong information after wrong information.

You would call me fucking stupid if I tried to use a regression model for a psychologist. That is how stupid math is for economics.

Besides if you want to use empiricism, the facts are on the laissez-faire side. The more interference between human interactions the worse off the economy will be. You get progressively worse the farther down the Statist slide you get.

Economics needs to seriously get back in-tune with their roots in philosophy & logic. Habermas, Hoppe & Nozick are far better than Samuelson, Krugman, and Schwartz.

-- I always love the quip by Murray concerning ordinal and cardinal preferences. I can say for certain I favor wonder bread over non-wonder bread, but I can't say I favor wonder bread 3.8 more times than I do non-wonder bread. No one thinks like that in the real world. No one. Just test it out for yourself one day. Without even thinking about you will come to an epiphany. You will see how screwed up orthodox economics is.
 
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You are saying something here i agree with.

1) mainstream does not equal Keynesian economics... (common misconception)
2) Mainstreams have similar concerns as Austrians do regard hyper-inflation. We have much more in common than we like to admit. (at least at the core of the logic)
3) Keynesian economists are not what will create hyper-inflation (my opinion: Politics in the FED will. If the FED doesn't tell the government it is on its own when those unfunded liabilities hit 'em hard... hello Zimbabwe. If it is free enough from political influence... the government is forced to cut spending or default... and that doesn't necessarily have to happen in the next few years)
4) mainstream economists do not believe in creating capital in the long run by printing money (again, they are not that stupid)
5) If we can say all Keynesians represent mainstream economists and Paul krugman represents all mainstream economists... then we need to accept that all classical economists are Austrians, and Peter schiff represents all Austrians.... I happen to think that kind of thinking is misplaced. This video is not an attack on keynsian economists. It an attack on Paul Krugman followers. It is important to make that distinction.

Regarding the above, why do I still like the Austrian economists?

I detest utilitarianism. Whether Austrian economics is the most effective or not (though i think it is), for me is not the true concern. I am concerned with the morality of economic theory. Austrian economists are the only ones who make that accommodation for me.

If everything Austrians have predicted in the last 100 years is proven wrong, I would still be an Austrian Economic mind.

Do I like the FED?
of course not... deliberate inflation, and a standing incentive for government to ban competing currency... forcing inflation down their throats? That is immoral in my opinion... and only the surface of it. The FED is a monument to utilitarianism, assuming some selective elite can determine the fate of everyone elses finances in the name of a greater good. The ends don't justify the means... especially if they happen to be wrong (and even if they are right).

This is a really good analysis of the discussion so far. I think most mainstream economists are utilitarians generally when they have to make policy judgement. As far as policy analysis goes, I think the utilitarian approach is the best standard. I don't think the utilitarian approach has to imply large government.
 
This is similar to saying that Libertarians are crazy radical cop killers because of Richard Poplawski. Clearly although he did bad things and agrees with libertarians on some issues, whether the libertarian philosophy is correct has nothing to do with his actions. Even if some Keynesians are criminals, it really doesn't say much about whether Keynesian economics describes the economy better than another economic system.

It seems too much like Keynesian is just the word for whatever bad you see in the world of economic policy rather than a more accurate description of what a Keynesian is.

That being said, inflation that is fully expected to ocurr by itself is not a transfer of wealth, it is a tax on currency but it is not a tax on savings because nominal interest rates are higher when there is higher inflation. Currency is such a small fraction of savings that this is very small. A surprise inflation is a different story.

Point taken. Not all Keynesians are accomplices. :o

However, Keynesian economics does not describe an honest system of economics. Keynesianism is obfuscation for a failed conniving money game specifically designed to manipulate markets and transfer wealth from the people to the privileged elite. Keynesian leadership knows that central banks are nothing but centers of fraud. Anyone who understands this principle and continues to promote the schemes is an accomplice.

There is only one truly legitimate honest economic system and that is the natural law of laissez-faire free-market capitalism.

Nonetheless, inflation is a transfer of wealth, plain and simple. Inflation in a commodity monetary system makes producers wealthy. Inflation in a fiat system makes counterfeiters wealthy, but it is deceitful criminal theft.

Ron Paul talks about inflation in this interview.​
YouTube - Ron Paul: Bernanke and Krugman are Destroying the Dollar

Watch these videos and read "The Secrets of the Federal Reserve" by Eustace Mullins if you are truly interested in the truth.
 
How exactly can you use math and empiricism to predict human behavior? Pyschology, sociology, incentivizations, reason, & logic are imminently superior in every aspect concerning human behavior, insight, and preferences than trying to plug in useless models which spew out wrong information after wrong information.

You would call me fucking stupid if I tried to use a regression model for a psychologist. That is how stupid math is for economics.

Besides if you want to use empiricism, the facts are on the laissez-faire side. The more interference between human interactions the worse off the economy will be. You get progressively worse the farther down the Statist slide you get.

Everything, psychology, sociology, incentivizations, reason and logic is all exactly equivalent to math. Anything you can say logically, you should be able to write down as an equation. Whenever you discuss something in these other terms, its like there is a puppet master behind the curtain of equations moving. We choose to write those equations down explicitly, because sometimes we find that what we thought was obvious was actually impossible.
 
I think the fact that Austrians are not willing to write down and calibrate a model of the economy shows that you can't take Austrian economics seriously. There have been many instances where I thought I clearly understand the intuition for something, but then when you actually write down a model, you get the opposite result. Math constrains the ability of people to just make stuff up. The fact that Austrians are not willing to put these constraints on themselves means that they are probably making mistakes like this all the time.

I will say here, that I think the Austrian's rejection of empirical formula is a strength. No school of economic thought tries to claim that their formulas comprise the entirety of all the factors of an economy. Another way to look at this, is that every single model is inherently wrong, and we all know it (and know attempts to deny it... that would be idiotic). The assertion is, that hopefully we have isolated enough of the most important factors that any model will be close enough.
Austrians often look to praxeology. This asserts certain axioms as being fundamental truths.

Both sides have pros and cons.

Empirical formula will get you an answer that is in some shape or form, close to the true answer. It is probably close much of the time. The problem is by what margin is it wrong? And how devastating is that margin? Are current factors permitting the model to appear correct... when in reality it is much diffrent... and will become apparent in the future?

Praxeology doesn't have the liberty of being in a grey area. You can't be almost right. You are either completely wrong or completely right... as far as each individual axiom goes. If your theory is wrong then either you were irrational or completely wrong. the nice thing about it is, you can be completely right. The bad thing is... if not obvious already... you can be completely wrong.

I would argue that, being almost right is being wrong... but I understand not everyone is as black and white as I am.


Interestingly Chicago school economists a very similar to Austrian economists, but they use empirical formula. The two do not agree on everything, but I know many libertarians (maybe even a couple here) subscribe to it.
 
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Everything, psychology, sociology, incentivizations, reason and logic is all exactly equivalent to math. Anything you can say logically, you should be able to write down as an equation. Whenever you discuss something in these other terms, its like there is a puppet master behind the curtain of equations moving. We choose to write those equations down explicitly, because sometimes we find that what we thought was obvious was actually impossible.

What exactly is the equation which tells you all unmarried men are bachelors? What is the equation which tells you all humans have goals and purposes?

You cannot quantify human action. It is impossible. You also cannot quantify deductive reasoning. It is impossible. Seriously, eschew the math. You cannot use math to try and determine or predict human behavior. It's silly. Just as silly as the above scenario where you go into your psychologist and instead of talking he or she plops down a regression model and says that in five days you will do such and such, and if I do this or say this to you, you will do x. The world doesn't work like that.

Just take a look at cardinal and ordinal preferences to see how silly orthodox economics is. No one goes shopping and says I would rather have 4.2 loafs of wonder bread, than 6.2 loafs of Food Lion brand bread. No one says I would rather have .4 of a house, instead of 2 xbox 360s. You can however say, I prefer wonder bread to non-wonder bread, and I prefer a house to an xbox 360, or I prefer roast beef than a steak.
 
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