Write in Candidate Leads rival Bentivolio in race for Congress, Poll Shows

Michigan11 said:
Remember this same newspaper endorsed Nancy the write-in, and this poll looks a bit strange anyway... look at the questions...

This is Michigan politics, and Amash wasn't supposed to win either, and wasn't endorsed by this paper either, and was supposed to lose, and he won big time. This paper is trying to create a story, and press.

... This is pure propoganda
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Let's hope so. It not, it is truly sad that GOP voters would so easily be misled by backroom politicians and their crony media contacts.
 
I would have preferred a poll asking something like-
In the district 11 house race, are you voting for:
A. Bentivolio
B. Writing in a name
C. Undecided

Something tells me explicitly telling those polled about the write-in gives skewed results.
 
QWDC said:
I would have preferred a poll asking something like-
In the district 11 house race, are you voting for:
A. Bentivolio
B. Writing in a name
C. Undecided

Something tells me explicitly telling those polled about the write-in gives skewed results.
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It does. The two different results show that people are unaware that Nancy is running as a write in candidate. If they know, then they vote differently.
 
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Look at the questions, look at the media putting this out, and just look at the past for Amash's race in 2010. Same thing, different time. The media and establishment would go crazy once again for the time being, when Bentivolio wins this primary. There are other pieces we aren't looking at. Look at who is attacking who in this race? She is attacking him, and that is for a reason.

Look at this poll and the questions asked. We are only 6 days away from victory here, this is a hit piece by the same paper who supports this Nancy. 60% Bentivolio in this race
 
Pros and cons:

Pro:
The poll had some bad methodology. The easy way to do it is ask if you will vote for Kerry Bentivolio or write-in another option. If they answer write-in, then ask "Who?" That mimics the process the actual voter undergoes.

Con:
This will be a super low turnout affair for a special election primary. Those who bother to show up will probably know something about the race and are several times more likely to be familiar with Cassis.

Pro: The regular primary will have higher turnout with the US Senate primary and downballot races on the ballot.

Con: If Cassis wins the special election primary, she will get a major name recognition boost for the regular primary.

EDIT: Didn't realize the timing on this, as jct74 pointed out. That makes things easier.
 
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Imperial said:
Con: If Cassis wins the special election primary, she will get a major name recognition boost for the regular primary.
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The regular primary comes first - August 7. Special primary is on September 5.
 
Not good. Joe Miller losing in Alaska showed us that the establishment can't turn out the vote for a write in campaign. Bentivolio is going to have to do some serious campaigning to win this.
 
jkob said:
Not good. Joe Miller losing in Alaska showed us that the establishment can't turn out the vote for a write in campaign. Bentivolio is going to have to do some serious campaigning to win this.
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Cassis is using many dirty tricks too. I got a bad feeling about this considering the district. This is a very hoity-toity area, it's gotta be the richest district in Michigan. It seems like a place where people would be much more comfortable electing an establishment figure than a grassroots tea partier.
 
In order to win, though, Cassis will still have to execute an ambitious primary day plan, getting supporters to remember to write in her name. Her campaign said Wednesday it will hand out red silicone bracelets with her name on it to help supporters get the spelling right.
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Wouldn't that be illegal if it is done within the vicinity of the polling stations?
 
LibertyEagle said:
Wouldn't that be illegal if it is done within the vicinity of the polling stations?
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Can one take campaign materials into a polling station ?
I can remember something somewhere, where people had to cover their clothing because it supported a candidate, etc ?
 
IndianaPolitico said:
Looked at the poll again, in the first poll 39% are undecided. That is ALOT. When they go to the polls they will be greeted by only 1 name on the ballot, Bentivolio's. In the 2nd poll, even with both names given, there are still 12% undecided. Most of that I am guessing will swing towards Bentivolio. Also, I am almost positive that Cassis will slip a bit in the last few days, not just because she isn't on the ballot, but because of the 200,000 dollars in LFA ads that began running recently. We just need to keep pressing on.
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Forgot about the 60,000 dollars worth of Freedom's Defense Fund's ads against Cassis. This is still within our grasp, it is all down to the final week. If we out work them, we will win.
 
The way the questions were asked means that the 52% to 36% results are valid IF AND ONLY IF all likely voters within the 11th Congressional District KNOW that Nancy Cassis is running as a write-in candidate, which we all know will not be true.

It seems as though her attack ads are working though as those are not good favorable/unfavorable numbers for Kerry.
 
luctor-et-emergo said:
Can one take campaign materials into a polling station ?
I can remember something somewhere, where people had to cover their clothing because it supported a candidate, etc ?
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MICHIGAN ELECTION LAW (EXCERPT)
Act 116 of 1954

168.931 Prohibited conduct; violation as misdemeanor; “valuable consideration” defined.
Sec. 931.

(k) A person shall not, while the polls are open on an election day, solicit votes in a polling place or within 100 feet from an entrance to the building in which a polling place is located.
 
tsai3904 said:
The way the questions were asked means that the 52% to 36% results are valid IF AND ONLY IF all likely voters within the 11th Congressional District KNOW that Nancy Cassis is running as a write-in candidate, which we all know will not be true.
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Pretty much. It could be close but I'm not overtly worried about this. Between our phone-banking this weekend, GOTV next week, the setup of poll challengers/poll watchers and all the outside money coming to our rescue, I'm pretty confident in the outcome going our way.
 
I'm getting a Cassis mailer every single day that totally rips on Kerry. Makes me sick the lies that her campaign is putting out.
 
FSP-Rebel said:
Pretty much. It could be close but I'm not overtly worried about this. Between our phone-banking this weekend, GOTV next week, the setup of poll challengers/poll watchers and all the outside money coming to our rescue, I'm pretty confident in the outcome going our way.
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I am glad that you are still confident. I really hope that we can pull this off. Also, I sent you a PM regarding a possible endorsement.

Son of Detroit said:
I'm getting a Cassis mailer every single day that totally rips on Kerry. Makes me sick the lies that her campaign is putting out.
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Have you been recieving any that are Pro-Kerry and Anti-Cassis?
 
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