WOW, New Hampshire supporters PUMPING MONEY into RP2008 !! AD'S working !

[paulitics]

Balderdash!

One simply cannot go around equating correlation with causation. There are a number of things which might explain NH's increasing donation rate. One of those is the TV commercial. Another is the radio commercials which began airing recently. Still another is the fact that Ron Paul's NH HQ called a few hundred hard-core supporters yesterday evening and tonight, reminding them of upcoming events -- including today's money bomb.

thats why I said give it a couple days. I also said "advertising" not TV commercial. The money bomb will be over soon, and we will know for sure after that ends. Right now, something is going on in NH that is making it an outlier. Agreed?

My guess is that the advertising is unique to NH (the money bomb and emails aren't). But if it goes back down in a few days, than we know it may have been something else, or just an anomoly.

 

[margomaps]

its a 200% increase. It also suggests that perhaps the message is resonating which will translate into votes. A very small percentage of voters actually donate.

Very true that a small percentage of voters actually donate...although I think we can all agree that this is less true in Ron's case than with most other candidates.

But again, a little perspective is required. Meetup members are probably quite a bit more likely to donate than John Doe voter who just happens to have seen a Ron Paul ad on TV and like what he saw, don't you think? Yet the 14-16 new donors in NH over the last 24 hours represents less than 5% of the meetup members in NH.

I find it entirely plausible that the dozen or so new donors in NH were from the meetup groups. And even if seeing a Ron Paul TV commercial is what prompted them to get online and donate, I don't think we can extrapolate this behaviour to John Doe voter in NH.

 

[nyrgoal99]

This is great

we need to keep it up

 

[margomaps]

thats why I said give it a couple days. I also said "advertising" not TV commercial. The money bomb will be over soon, and we will know for sure after that ends. Right now, something is going on in NH that is making it an outlier. Agreed?

My guess is that the advertising is unique to NH (the money bomb and emails aren't). But if it goes back down in a few days, than we know it may have been something else, or just an anomoly.

Remember that NH has always had the highest per capita number of donors on the donor map. I don't have the historical data handy to quantify it, but I think NH was always about twice as high as the next state.

I agree: let's see what happens when the money bombs settle down (FYI, our HQNH meetup sent another e-mail to its 450+ members today about another money bomb tomorrow -- so we may need to wait a few days).

 

[Green Mountain Boy]

Here's what we know:

Per Capita donations for NH in last 24 hours: 21.3

Population of NH: 1.3 million


21 x 1.3 = 27 donations in last 24 hours

We also know that 22 people RSVP'd Yes for the money bomb in NH.

27-22= 5 donations that are not money-bomb related - which is about the average # of daily donations from nh so far this quarter.

 

[margomaps]

Here's what we know:

Per Capita donations for NH in last 24 hours: 21.3

Population of NH: 1.3 million


21 x 1.3 = 27 donations in last 24 hours

We also know that 22 people RSVP'd Yes for the money bomb in NH.

27-22= 5 donations that are not money-bomb related - which is the average # of daily donations from nh so far this quarter.

Ah, welcome to the conversation. I shall call you....the voice of reason.

I totally overlooked the 22 meetup RSVP's. That makes my argument much, much stronger. Although, someone claimed that NH's donation rate was going up prior to today -- I haven't looked into that.

 

[paulitics]

Remember that NH has always had the highest per capita number of donors on the donor map. I don't have the historical data handy to quantify it, but I think NH was always about twice as high as the next state.

I agree: let's see what happens when the money bombs settle down (FYI, our HQNH meetup sent another e-mail to its 450+ members today about another money bomb tomorrow -- so we may need to wait a few days).

Again, there is nothing that you are saying that I don't disagree with. What I said was that in a couple days if if the donations are still 3 times higher than the average for this state, than something unique is happening in NH, and one would have to attribute that to the advertising campaign. The advertising campaign and increase in donors have coincided thus far.

The other factor is the money bomb, but again this is nationwide, and every state has meetup groups with email reminders abut this. This is not unique to NH.
Nh has always had twice as high, but it is now 5 to 6 times as high. Its something to look at to see if it continues.

 

[0zzy]

Here's what we know:

Per Capita donations for NH in last 24 hours: 21.3

Population of NH: 1.3 million


21 x 1.3 = 27 donations in last 24 hours

We also know that 22 people RSVP'd Yes for the money bomb in NH.

27-22= 5 donations that are not money-bomb related - which is about the average # of daily donations from nh so far this quarter.

11.4 persons per million were NEW doners.

 

[margomaps]

Again, there is nothing that you are saying that I don't disagree with. What I said was that in a couple days if if the donations are still 3 times higher than the average for this state, than something unique is happening in NH, and one would have to attribute that to the advertising campaign. The advertising campaign and increase in donors have coincided thus far.

Again, correlation does not imply causation, unless you can prove that every other factor cannot explain the phenomenon. Everyone keeps ignoring the fact that this "spike" in donations also coincides with hundreds of phone calls that were recently made to Ron Paul supporters in NH by the campaign. I should know -- I was one of the guys making the phone calls. To me, these phone calls are much more likely to bear fruit in the form of donations, than TV ads shown to the audience of The Price Is Right.

The other factor is the money bomb, but again this is nationwide, and every state has meetup groups with email reminders abut this. This is not unique to NH.
Nh has always had twice as high, but it is now 5 to 6 times as high. Its something to look at to see if it continues.

NH almost certainly has a much higher per-capita meetup group membership -- something which I think you overlooked in your analysis. Therefore, any event such as the money bomb is likely to have a proportionally larger effect on NH than other states.

 

[margomaps]

11.4 persons per million were NEW doners.

Again, our pool of meetup members in NH alone is 800 or so. I think it's much more likely that those 11-12 people came from a pool of dedicated Ron Paul fanboys, than from the general population.

 

[0zzy]

Again, our pool of meetup members in NH alone is 800 or so. I think it's much more likely that those 11-12 people came from a pool of dedicated Ron Paul fanboys, than from the general population.

Tell them all to donate 100, 80,000.

 

[margomaps]

Tell them all to donate 100, 80,000.

We're doing our best!

 

[paulitics]

Again, correlation does not imply causation, unless you can prove that every other factor cannot explain the phenomenon. Everyone keeps ignoring the fact that this "spike" in donations also coincides with hundreds of phone calls that were recently made to Ron Paul supporters in NH by the campaign. I should know -- I was one of the guys making the phone calls. To me, these phone calls are much more likely to bear fruit in the form of donations, than TV ads shown to the audience of The Price Is Right.



NH almost certainly has a much higher per-capita meetup group membership -- something which I think you overlooked in your analysis. Therefore, any event such as the money bomb is likely to have a proportionally larger effect on NH than other states.

Again, the point you keep overlooking is I said you have to wait another couple days to see if the trend persists. Every argument you are making is predicated on me saying otherwise. There is a huge difference.

The phone donation drive I was not aware of, so if that translated into donors than that could be the main reason. If the spike continues over a period of days, while the money bomb is over, and phone drive is over, than yes it is very likely to be the advertising...and you keep thinking I said TV commercial, when there is much more to the advertising campaign than that.

 

[margomaps]

Again, the point you keep overlooking is I said you have to wait another couple days to see if the trend persists. Every argument you are making is predicated on me saying otherwise. There is a huge difference.

The phone donation drive I was not aware of, so if that translated into donors than that could be the main reason. If the spike continues over a period of days, while the money bomb is over, and phone drive is over, than yes it is very likely to be the advertising...and you keep thinking I said TV commercial, when there is much more to the advertising campaign than that.

I'm lumping the TV ads with the radio ads in the "probably not effective in getting donors" category. Besides, the radio ads have been running for weeks...so which is it: The TV ads are bringing in donors after 1-2 days on the air? Or the radio ads which have been playing for weeks, started to suddenly bring in donations yesterday?

But seriously, I agree we can revisit this topic (as you suggest) in a few days and see what we see at that time. Of course, if the donation rates remain higher than the recent average, we'd still have to rule out other factors before proclaiming the advertisements a boon to campaign donations. There are Ron Paul meetup events happening every day or two recently, and these will continue to be likely contributors to increased donations amongst meetup members in NH.

And I just remembered that those glossy, high-quality 12-page brochures were sent out to NH Republicans late last week by the campaign. These are directed solicitations that could easily result in a prolonged increase in donations -- though I would expect many of those donations to be mailed in.

 

[Revolution9]

Ok, I know we've gone back and forth on this a few times...no hard feelings, OK?

Let's suppose that the recent increase in NH donations is entirely due to the new TV commercial. If I recall correctly, previous levels in NH were more along the lines of 6-8 donors per million per day. So now we're at 22. With our previous assumption, that means the commercial is resulting in 14-16 new donors per day in NH.

Still excited?

I'm glad NH has a higher donation rate than the rest of the country -- I really am! But all the numbers are still too low. It's like getting a C- on an exam, and being happy about it because everyone else failed.

The flaw in your scenario is that the primaries will be based on a percentile of the population of NH...just as the donor graph is based on a percentile. Regardless of the actual number of people who have donated the excitement is due to the fact that all these donors will vote RP in the primary. If the donor percentile is an indicator, as it well may be, then it does carry some weight to it and there is reason to be positive about it.

Best Regards
Randy

 

[margomaps]

The flaw in your scenario is that the primaries will be based on a percentile of the population of NH...just as the donor graph is based on a percentile. Regardless of the actual number of people who have donated the excitement is due to the fact that all these donors will vote RP in the primary. If the donor percentile is an indicator, as it well may be, then it does carry some weight to it and there is reason to be positive about it.

Best Regards
Randy

I'm all about being positive, but I'm not going to paint a rosy picture when it's not warranted. We need 40,000+ votes to win the NH primary. When we're talking about daily donors averaging 5 or so -- and likely most of these coming from our already-on-board meetup members -- and that's not going to add up to 40,000 any time soon unfortunately.

Then again, it doesn't have to: we don't need each potential voter to be a donor. Heck, we're only getting ~ 5% of our meetup groups donating at the moment. Right now we need each of our meetup members to get 50 other NHers to vote for Paul in the primary. That's a lot. But we're trying.

 

[saahmed]

I think the fact that Maine is second in donations per capita is a sign that the ads are working. No doubt some of those TV stations leak into Maine.