With Quinnipiac Poll coming out at 6am tomorrow - I'm going to call it for Rand he is in

[Joeinmo]

To the best of my knowledge there is one last Iowa poll tomorrow - Quinnipiac.

Rand has been up in the last 5 polls taken in Iowa, his trend has been upward in a slow steady fashion since November in Iowa, and lately in NH.

the last time Paul was in Quinnipiac he was at 2 and Bush was at 3

However, when Quinnipiac poll is rolled out, KBUR drops off (correct me if I'm wrong - this is a huge poll to drop off for Rand in a good way) in this poll Bush was at 7% and Rand at 3% or a 4 point spread.

so as long as Rand stays at 2%, and even if Bush rises to 6% it's still a 4 point spread and Rand is in. From the metrics and trends Bush has been nosediving in Iowa, I don't see him getting 5% or maybe not even 4%.

if this is the case, I'm calling it, Rand will be in the debate.

I ask the house for permission to revise and extend my remarks -- lol


UPDATE Rand should be in with the new numbers

 

[kbs021]

We actually don't know about all this stuff lol.. I will say this, If they count the Iowa State poll, we are in. If they count CBS we are in. They shouldn't be counting KBUR already. Chip said they aren't counting CBS OR KBUR. So a new poll would knock off DMR? Very confusing.... In my opinion, they are going to get hammered for banning us.. That would mean rejecting two polls (Iowa State, CBS) that we do very well in.

 

[derek4ever]

I hope Rand can get at least 5% in Quinnipac! They seem to be good when it comes to polling Rand. If you average all their IA polls between Rand and Bush, Rand should get about 6.2% and Jeb 5.1%, which would be enough to put Rand in 5th. Let's cross our fingers!!

 

[eleganz]

Would be great if he made the last debate. If he did, that would make his absence from the last one completely meaningless and all of the extra press he got from boycotting it EVEN BETTER.

His numbers didn't even drop from being absent from the last debate.

 

[derek4ever]

Would be great if he made the last debate. If he did, that would make his absence from the last one completely meaningless and all of the extra press he got from boycotting it EVEN BETTER.

His numbers didn't even drop from being absent from the last debate.

And plus he'd be able to have a last minute surge that can help him overperform!! A big majority of caucus voters are still undecided or atr giving certain candidates softcore support. Since us Paulites are passionate and to the core, we're backing Rand or nothing here!

 

[shenmue]

Rand is 5% ahead of Jeb 4% in the new Quinnipiac Poll

Now is it safe to say that Rand will be in the main stage?

 

[speciallyblend]

all this talk about polls, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8o5ZfnOHzY

 

[Chester Copperpot]

one issue i noticed with rand not being in the last debate was that some older people (my parents) thought rand had dropped out... my parents watch FOX news and Im sure they used the phrase "dropped from the debate" or "dropped out of the debate" as an inference that he dropped out of the race..so i had to correct them.. but im sure its prevalent among older folks.. so they might be surprised to see him in this debate.. it would be good especially before iowa

 

[CPUd]

Rand is 5% ahead of Jeb 4% in the new Quinnipiac Poll

Now is it safe to say that Rand will be in the main stage?

Yes.

 

[SilentBull]

Rand has to be in now. Worst case scenario he's tied with Bush. There is no combination that will keep him out.

EDIT: There is one. Check post #12.

 

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

one issue i noticed with rand not being in the last debate was that some older people (my parents) thought rand had dropped out... my parents watch FOX news and Im sure they used the phrase "dropped from the debate" or "dropped out of the debate" as an inference that he dropped out of the race..so i had to correct them.. but im sure its prevalent among older folks.. so they might be surprised to see him in this debate.. it would be good especially before iowa

Boy can't wait until cable "news" outlets and regular TV "news" outlets go the way of the newspaper. I'd give it another 20 years at most before they're all tugging at the Gman's tit even more than they are now when almost no one under 50 will be using traditional avenues to get their entertainment or news.

 

[SilentBull]

Including CBS & KBUR:

Paul: 4.2
Bush: 3.8


Including CBS, Excluding KBUR:

Paul: 4
Bush: 3


Excluding CBS & KBUR

Paul: 4
Bush: 4

Excluding CBS, Including KBUR:

Paul: 4
Bush: 4.2

 

[MarcusI]

At what time today will Fox announce the final line-up?

 

[Joeinmo]

Including CBS & KBUR:

Paul: 4.2
Bush: 3.8


Including CBS, Excluding KBUR:

Paul: 4
Bush: 3


Excluding CBS & KBUR

Paul: 4
Bush: 4

Excluding CBS, Including KBUR:

Paul: 4
Bush: 4.2

Well if they follow their own rules from the past debates, they always drop the oldest poll, that would be KBUR

 

[specsaregood]

one issue i noticed with rand not being in the last debate was that some older people (my parents) thought rand had dropped out... my parents watch FOX news and Im sure they used the phrase "dropped from the debate" or "dropped out of the debate" as an inference that he dropped out of the race..so i had to correct them.. but im sure its prevalent among older folks.. so they might be surprised to see him in this debate.. it would be good especially before iowa

A great many articles are blacking him out too; mentioning every candidate but Paul.
eg: no mention of paul or carson:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/27/u...nald-trump-republican-establishment.html?_r=1

although they do manage to mention Paul Ryan, lol.

 

[Joeinmo]

Rand has to be in now. Worst case scenario he's tied with Bush. There is no combination that will keep him out.

EDIT: There is one. Check post #12.

Maybe, but they have never used tenths of a percent, they either round up if you are 5 and above or round down if your are below. So should be a tie...but hey I don't make the rules

 

[CPUd]

Maybe, but they have never used tenths of a percent, they either round up if you are 5 and above or round down if your are below. So should be a tie...but hey I don't make the rules

For the final averages, FBN rounded to the tenth of a percent

-The rank order was determined by a simple arithmetic average of publicly available results. Averages were rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.

 

[Joeinmo]

For the final averages, FBN rounded to the tenth of a percent

Gotcha - I stand corrected - I notice KBUR is only a 1 day poll is that a normal demographic poll, I notice all other have at least a 48 hour window

 

[PCKY]

The goofy thing is that the actual main debate stage has never nade a difference for Rand in the polls. The people react to the pundits and their "call" on who won. The debate stage has only helped Rand in fund raising.

 

[69360]

Maybe he will make it. I hope he does.

But at this point it probably doesn't really matter. He's still polling low single digits. Some of you are obsessing about the difference between 3 and 4 when he is 25 back. It's kind of sad.