Will Rand surprise in Iowa? Keep an eye on Rand Paul

[kbs021]

1.5 weeks to go:
Who's making calls from home?

Me too!

 

[LatinsforPaul]

 

[kbs021]

Yep Thomas Massie will be there! Love that he has our back.

 

[simon1911]

Lets keep our heads out of the clouds. Fivethirtyeight aka Nate Silver is never wrong, has Rand's win chance at less than 1%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...wa-republican/

That's based on latest polls and can change. I doubt Nate Silver had Satorum's chances very high when he was polling around 5% in 2012.

If you look at the current prediction, you'll see the latest polling was from Jan 5-10. This was before the, let's call it, debate-exclusion-gate. Early indication seems to point that Rand's polling has improved by skipping. Let's hope this holds true for future polls.

I found this on Nate Silver prediction for 2012 for Iowa.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-iowa-six-candidates-compete-to-beat-expectations/ which placed Mitt in the first place.

It will be intresting to see how Rand does in recent polling and how they change Nate Silver's prediction. I know that Nate Silver does well predicting the general election outcome but I wonder his accuracy for the party nominees.

 

[derek4ever]

1.5 weeks to go:
Who's making calls from home?

Still waiting for a reply. One of the people in charge of the FB page told me that there's something for me, so I'm antsy and keeping my mind open to different ideas!

 

[PCKY]

By the way, on a conference call today with supporters, Steve Munisteri said that they will be bringing a "special guest" to Iowa in the few days before the caucus which should help energize the base. I wonder who that could be

And this from Thomas Massie...a big deal in the works? https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?....205278132830542.51687.100000450716058&type=3

 

[Rudeman]

If you look at the current prediction, you'll see the latest polling was from Jan 5-10. This was before the, let's call it, debate-exclusion-gate. Early indication seems to point that Rand's polling has improved by skipping. Let's hope this holds true for future polls.

I found this on Nate Silver prediction for 2012 for Iowa.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-iowa-six-candidates-compete-to-beat-expectations/ which placed Mitt in the first place.

It will be intresting to see how Rand does in recent polling and how they change Nate Silver's prediction. I know that Nate Silver does well predicting the general election outcome but I wonder his accuracy for the party nominees.

I tried to find one a couple weeks before the caucus but this was the closest I could find. Santorum had 1.6% chance and Romney was at 10.6%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rich-leads-paul-gaining-race-still-wide-open/

 

[VictorB]

By the way, on a conference call today with supporters, Steve Munisteri said that they will be bringing a "special guest" to Iowa in the few days before the caucus which should help energize the base. I wonder who that could be

I just posted this in another thread but I'll post it here too: I have a theory where they don't want Ron in Iowa too early as to avoid any "negative" hit pieces (see racist news letters). I think Ron will hit Iowa 2-3 days before Feb 1st to give the base and fence sitters that extra push and yet not leave the enemy enough time to formulate any attacks.

It'll be huge to have him there right before the caucus. Might be just enough to get Rand between 1st and 2nd or 2nd and 3rd.

 

[trey4sports]

President Paul!

The liberty triad
Rand Paul, Thomas Massie, Ron Paul.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

RON would be the best guy to excite Rand's supporters.

There's your answer big timer.