Why the modest inflation?

Monetary destruction is happening behind the scenes at an extraordinary rate. There is still an incredible amount of bad debt being slowly defaulted on.

The massive amount of printing has still not caught up with the giant sucking deflationationary hole.
 
Why inflation is so modest with zero interest rates and after Q1 and Q2?

My own explanation (which might be bogus) is that government bonds are interchangeable with money, and when Bernanke printed money to buy bonds, he didn't in fact change the money supply, because bonds are part of the money supply. So banks now have one type of money (cash) instead of another type of money (bonds). So theoretically this shouldn't change much.

What do you think?


One thing that can offset the counterfeiting is defaulting on debt.

Still it is hard to see inflation up close for me. I'm guessing its been over 8% a year most of my life. I think once some time passes and we look back at the last few years we will be able to see it was alive and well. Actually I have been thinking the last year we had a nice break and had some counterfeiting easing.

Anyway if you look long term it looks heavy duty. Not like the figures they dish out anyway.

RobertSahrcurrencyvalue.jpg
 
Home equity, which consumers had been using like cash, has dropped substantially. Stock equity (measured in terms of gold or an undiluted currency) has gone down substantially as well. It seems to me that the evaporation of equity has had a significant countervailing effect on these QE maneuvers wrt expanding the money supply.
 
I don't know about all the broader arguments, but a personal example:

Around two or three years ago, we used to buy a 20 pound bag of cat food for around twenty bucks. Now, the exact same food comes in a 16.5 pound bag and costs about $35.

I'd say that's inflationary.
 
Home equity, which consumers had been using like cash, has dropped substantially. Stock equity (measured in terms of gold or an undiluted currency) has gone down substantially as well. It seems to me that the evaporation of equity has had a significant countervailing effect on these QE maneuvers wrt expanding the money supply.

Exactly. And don't forget deflation in wages and underemployment. Deflation offset by monetary inflation. And the net result is one of the greatest transfers of wealth in the history of mankind.
 
"Home equity, which consumers had been using like cash"

Can you explain this sentence please? What is the mechanism behind that?
 
"Home equity, which consumers had been using like cash"

Can you explain this sentence please? What is the mechanism behind that?

It's commonly called 'a second mortgage'.

Exactly. And don't forget deflation in wages and underemployment. Deflation offset by monetary inflation. And the net result is one of the greatest transfers of wealth in the history of mankind.

Rep 4U
 
Exactly. And don't forget deflation in wages and underemployment. Deflation offset by monetary inflation. And the net result is one of the greatest transfers of wealth in the history of mankind.

And most people just continue to blindly support their chosen Blue Team Leader, or Red Team Leader, and cheer them on towards our own destruction.

This is how liberty dies... with thunderous applause.
 
"Home equity, which consumers had been using like cash"

Can you explain this sentence please? What is the mechanism behind that?

Also see HELOC (Home equity line of credit). When unemployment started rising after the crash of the dot con bubble, it became "common wisdom" that taking out your home equity for spending cash was a relatively better idea than using credit cards, which were at a higher rate of interest.
 
"Home equity, which consumers had been using like cash"

Can you explain this sentence please? What is the mechanism behind that?

Home equity only means the difference between what you currently owe on your house and what it could sell for currently on the market.

Simplistically speaking, let's say you paid $300K for a home in 2000. That is what you owe the bank, and what your house would still sell for after taking out the loan. By 2005, within five short years, the market price for similar homes trading in that area shoots up to $500K. You don't know why, and you don't care. It's your windfall, so happy days! You now have a home that is "worth" $500K, because you could sell it to someone else for that amount. That also means you have $200K in additional "home equity", meaning that if you sold your home (at that time), you could pay off the loan for $300K and pocket $200K for yourself.

Banks during the housing boom saw this equity as a way of making more loans. Believing that your equity was indeed real (i.e., your house really would continue to be worth that much and more to others), banks would offer to loan you cash based on that equity. So home equity loan offers from banks were splashed out all over the place, as enticements to take out second mortgages. You could now borrow against your equity, and use that cash for anything you wanted; home improvements, a down payment on yet another overvalued home, a new car, send your kid to college, vacations, or anything else. You would now owe the bank(s) $500K total, but that's OK, because everyone knew that your house would be worth yet even more down the road, which meant that you would have even more equity! You could sell the house for that increased amount, pay off the first and second mortgages, and pocket that difference as well.

Many homeowners were so euphoric about what was happening in the real estate market, and all that "wealth" being "created", that they were literally using their homes as ATM machines. The mechanism for using home equity as cash was simply going further into debt. This was on the belief (shared by banks and homeowners alike), on the full expectation that there would always be another sucker down the road who is willing to pay even more than you did for it -- that real estate prices could only increase - exponentially even.

When the housing bubble finally did burst in 2008 (lots of triggering mechanisms for that inevitability), housing prices fell dramatically. Banks finally woke up to the fact that the free home equity ride was over. Now your house is back to being worth only the $300K you originally paid for it. But you took out a $200K second mortgage. That extra $200K was spent and is now long gone, but you are now "upside down", as you now owe $500K total for something that is currently only worth $300K. Much of the illusion of wealth was wiped out (the nominal market value of the home). Not the nominal price of the debts. You still owe that amount, regardless what the home is worth.

The entire housing boom was a phase in the business cycle where rampant speculation was fueled by low interest rates, easy credit, government guaranteed loans, etc., all of which combined to cause the general prices of real estate to skyrocket. But real estate was not the only market that was affected. That extra $200K that you and others had spent from taking out second mortgages on overvalued real estate -- that created yet other market distortions -- other market bubbles as artificial expectations spilled over into other markets. These other markets, many unrelated to housing, saw only increased demand for their goods and services. And there was a full expectation that this demand would continue as well. There was no reason to believe that demand would dry up, so everyone geared up accordingly. Nobody was paying attention to the fact that much of that extra spending was coming from banks in the form of a massive amount of debts that were about to go sour.
 
The only logical explanation I've heard for this is that since we "print" money and distribute it throughout the population we then ship it off seas to buy oil and goods and thus are exporting our inflation to China and the Middle East. Thus we won't have inflation until our holding in our own money supply increases.
 
My thought was that when foreigners used to buy our cash (bonds) they would hoard them in there bank vaults as an investment and so that money would never hit the streets so we never seen the real damage of inflation. If I print a hundred dollars and keep fifty in my drawer and never spend it, it's like it was never created, until I do spend it. I thought this was the way they were going to take down America. Hand out all this money and then boom and uncontrollable inflationary spiral when everyone sells their bonds on the market for pennies on the dollar. Now that the FED is buying them up I have no idea. Though I'm not the most educated in Fiat money manipulation.

This is why you have to have a PhD in economics from Harvard to understand what should be simple accounting. They bastardize the hell out of it and now it makes no sense.
 
That is why the Fed (as Brian pointed out recently) is paying interest on excess reserves banks leave with the Fed- it is basically keeping the money from purchases the Fed has been making "under the matteress" and not circulating. Excess reserves have soared along with the Fed balance sheet.
 
Why the modest inflation?

Another factor might be productivity. Instead of enjoying lower costs, any benefit from productivty is inflated away. We might make and distribute bread 10% more efficiently over a period of time, but inflation can wipe that out and result in a "modest" 5% price increase. The actual price increase, if adjusted for inflation, would be higher - like 15%.
 
One thing I heard about the mortgage purchases, is that the money homeowners pay off goes to the Fed. Though they really aren't paying off that much, I would think. And mortgages are long term propositions.
 
If that mortgage was repackaged into a mortgage backed security and resold and that was in one of the ones the Fed purchased, that would be true. The Fed then turns over profits at the end of the year (minus their costs) to the US Treasury.
 
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