tbone717
Banned
- Joined
- Oct 21, 2011
- Messages
- 3,595
I know historically if someone wins Iowa, NH and SC, it is a lock, but maybe this year is different?
With the change in the delegate structure and primary schedule, this year is different than any year that has preceded it. The first three states this year are more about seeing which candidates will survive than crowning the eventual nominee. Additionally, the perceived frontrunner has a ceiling which he seems unable to break. It was evidenced in IA where Romney's vote total in IA was nearly identical to his 2008 total. So in four years Romney has been unable to increase his support in that state.
With every contest we will see candidates dropping out, because poor performance equals less money in their coffers. The NY Times did a piece in 2003 that estimated that it takes about 100K per day to run a campaign. As the lower tier candidates perform poorly, they will simply run out of funds to continue. You can't pay a staff, travel around a state, pay for lodging & meals, run ads on TV and radio if you don't have any cash.
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