Why are there different delegate counts thus far?

[Just Flossin']

WSJ has Santorum at 14 and Paul at 3 yet CNN has Paul at 10 and Santorum at 8. What's the deal?

 

[Sematary]

Because the media make false assumptions - such as the Iowa delegates are beholding to a certain candidate, or that they are split a certain way, which is patently false. The Iowa delegates (for instance) are completely not dedicated to any single candidate based on the vote. That is why it is so important for Ron Paul supporters to become delegates. And, if this thing comes down to a brokered convention - all bets are off and all the delegates can vote for whomever the hell they want to - which is why it is SUPER important for Ron Paul supporters to become delegates.

 

[J. W. Evans]

If we're looking at just hard delegates, or delegates who are going to be required to vote for a particular candidate, we're looking at Paul being in 3rd with three. Santorum is actually in 5th behind Huntsman.

It'll be hard to actually figure out what's what until the Convention, so don't let it get to you.

 

[J. W. Evans]

If we're looking at just hard delegates, or delegates who are going to be required to vote for a particular candidate, we're looking at Paul being in 3rd with three. Santorum is actually in 5th behind Huntsman.

It'll be hard to actually figure out what's what until the Convention, so don't let it get to you.

 

[J. W. Evans]

Triple post!

Sorry, I Internal Service Error 500'd.

 

[bbartlog]

Some of the delegates are unbound (like the ones from Iowa) but the media wants to treat those contests as decided so they assign the delegates anyway. Also, it's hard even for an intelligent and informed person to analyze the situation, given the complexity of delegate allocation; your average news reporter has no chance .

 

[slamhead]

WSJ has Santorum at 14 and Paul at 3 yet CNN has Paul at 10 and Santorum at 8. What's the deal?

And Fox just had Frothy at 14 and Ron at 4.

 

[zadrock]

Here's the "hard" delegate count:
Romney: 59 (FL - 50, NH - 7, SC - 2)
Gingrich: 23 (SC - 23)
Paul: 3 (NH - 3)
Huntsman: 2 (NH - 2)

Additionally, I thought I read somewhere that certain party leaders had pledged for Romney already. Note that every state has three delegates for state party leaders (unless penalized by the RNC, which is the case for some of these early voting states), and they are free to publicly support any candidate. So certain calculations may include those delegates. I'd be grateful to anyone who knows where to find this info.

What makes things hazy is Iowa. There are 28 delegates there. Zero have been awarded so far, and they won't be until June. Right now, the media basically takes the straw poll vote and projects the delegates based on that. So the breakdown of Iowa is like this:

Santorum: 7
Romney: 7
Paul: 7
Gingrich: 4
Perry: 3

So the question is... how did the various media outlets go from the hard total above to the numbers that they are projecting?

First, some media outlets may have already given Huntsman's delegates to Romney. Technically, a pledged delegate cannot be subsequently pledged to someone else. Also, Huntsman SUSPENDED his campaign, which is different from ending it. So they are still his. Once he ends his campaign officially, then they are free to go to ANYBODY. They do not have to follow his lead and go to Romney, whom JH endorsed.

Santorum at 14 and Paul at 3 means that WSJ took ALL of Paul's projected Iowa delegates and gave them to Santorum. That's bullshit.

Paul at 10 and Santorum at 8 means that (probably) CNN took Perry's 3 Iowa delegates (since he dropped out) and divided them among the four remaining candidates. Hmm, guess who got the short straw on that one. Again, bullshit, but less then the above bullshit.

While I agree with previous posters that it is all projection at this point, we should totally call these media assholes on their contrived methods. If they are going to project a state like Iowa, then fucking do it consistently, or don't include it in the totals.

 

[Mordan]

well as long as people are dumb enough to blindly believe the mainstream media, they will continue to skew the facts to match their agenda.

all people watching TV have to pass away before a Ron Paul kind of guy gets elected president of the USA.

i stopped watching TV completely.

 

[Maestro232]

Drudge bomb

I think we need to drudge bomb though. He's linking to WSJ and many people are getting false info from this.

 

[mattdcw]

Additionally, I thought I read somewhere that certain party leaders had pledged for Romney already. Note that every state has three delegates for state party leaders (unless penalized by the RNC, which is the case for some of these early voting states), and they are free to publicly support any candidate. So certain calculations may include those delegates. I'd be grateful to anyone who knows where to find this info.

This is the best list of the state party delegates, aka superdelegates.