Which States do you think that Rand could realistically win?

[r3volution 3.0]

All of them if he wins Iowa.

Yup

 

[euphemia]

I agree with New Hampshire, Colorado, and Kentucky. If he has a strong showing tomorrow, I think everyone will have to give him another look.

 

[65fastback2+2]

since one of the next debate qualifications is top 3 placement in iowa, if rand takes 1st...they would have to put him center stage. that'd be a huge game changer for the campaign

 

[Matt Collins]

Sadly at this point in time I would have to say none. That could change, anything is possible, but not likely.

Unfortunately I agree.... He will probably do worse than Ron did in 2012.

 

[CPUd]

 

[Matt Collins]

Didn't Ron nearly win Louisiana, Nevada, & Maine but shenanigans from the Republican Party literally stole those away from him?

Yes... Rand has no operations in LA or ME this time around, but he does have operations in NV.

Unfortunately Rubio will win Nevada (unless Trump wins Iowa)... not only was Rubio Mormon but Nevada also has a ton of former Cubans that fled Castro when he marched in after Batista.

 

[Matt Collins]

That is the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen....

 

[CPUd]

 

[Michael Landon]

Unfortunately I agree.... He will probably do worse than Ron did in 2012.

How about Minnesota? What are you hearing?

- ML

 

[Matt Collins]

How about Minnesota? What are you hearing?

- ML

They are putting in some effort there for sure, but again, it is not as widespread as it was in 2012. He won't do as well as Ron did.


I suspect he will drop out after New Hampshire.

 

[CPUd]

He would have to get beat really bad to drop out before the KY caucus. Could happen the week after that though, or March 16 if someone has a big lead.

 

[afwjam]

I guess we will see.

 

[Makes Interesting Points]

Maine. Ron Paul almost won Maine in 2012. I will be caucusing for Rand Paul in Maine. I already requested the entire caucus day off from work over a month in advance, just to make sure nothing gets in the way of it.

As for the other winnable states, maybe ones that Ron Paul did well with in 2012 that take place after some of the big competition might drop out? Louisiana perhaps. Though Ron did better with delegates there than the popular vote suggests.

 

[Uriah]

I wish that were true, but you know that the mainstream networks would downplay Sen. Paul's victory in Iowa by reminding the public that "an Iowa victory has never led to a Republican nomination." From that, they would probably shift the focus back to their top-tier trinity of Trump-Cruz-Rubio.

I just think Sen. Paul's campaign needs to be ready to deal with that backlash, should he win Iowa. When that happens, the first thing he should do is expose how much the polls are unreliable and unscientific, just to set the record straight for the next primaries.

Candidates with primary support from evangelical voters tend to do well in Iowa. When those candidates win they've largely pigeonholed themselves to gain that support. And by doing so they forgo many moderate supporters thus greatly reducing their chances of winning the nomination.

Rand Paul's primary support is not from evangelical voters so non sequitur that he'll lose other states. He could win Iowa and lose other states but Iowa is a test of his organization and strategy. If he wins, and that is an if, he will have broken American politics as we know it.

 

[dannno]

Iowa, New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada, Kentucky, Utah, Washington, Colorado, Texas I think may be most likely, I could be missing some though, and I think he could win a lot more if he got traction including California. edit: also Louisiana

 

[Mani]

Also, the Fox Graphic of Rand's win would look something like this:

Cruz 21%
Trump 18%
Paul 24%

More Like:

Cruz 21%
Trump 18%
Rubio 10%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Christie 3%
Kasich 3%
Santorum 3%
Carly 2%
Huckabee 2%
Other 24%

 

[mello]

Iowa, New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada, Kentucky, Utah, Washington, Colorado, Texas I think may be most likely, I could be missing some though, and I think he could win a lot more if he got traction including California.

I gotta feeling that Bush will get Texas.

 

[maxoutco]

If Rand wins Iowa, it will waken the Ron Paul liberty movement that's been sleeping. Plus he gets the snowball effect going into the next states. *crossing my fingers*

 

[dude58677]

It depends on how Donald Trump does. If Donald Trump has a poor showing such as 4th place or worse then he drops out and then Rand like in 2013 and 2014 will be the front runner the rest of the way. If Donald Trump wins then it will be like Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012 unless nobody gets above 50 percent with the new rules and wind up with a brokered convention.

 

[PCKY]

ME (even though Paul LePage flaked on the liberty movement), MT, and ND are good bets as well if he wins IA and NH. If he continues to do well NV, NC, WA, VA, WV, UT, are all possibilities.

We can count out all of the south. We're for Bush and Cruz down here. NY, FL, CA rule out as well.

You don't think he has a shot at CA? Who gets them?