2012 is an unconventional year, and there will be an unconventional candidate. It won't be any of the people we are talking about in the polls now.
1. The Tea Parties will determine the Republican nominee in 2012. There will be any number of candidates that the GOP establishment will offer us, but they know nothing is possible without the Tea Party. The eventual nominee will have to appeal to the Tea Parties.
2. Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich were all establishment Republicans before the Tea Parties came to prominence. This is why I don't think they can appeal to them now.
3. Who does appeal to the Tea Parties? It will be a candidate who is: Christian, interventionist, seen as a "Constitutionalist", and pro-life. So who fits the bill? Palin, but I don't think she will run. Pence, but he may run for governor. DeMint, but I don't think he will run. Herman Cain won't get anywhere. The field is wide open, but I predict that the nominee will be christian, interventionist, and pro-life.
4. MOST IMPORTANTLY, I think the effect that Ron and Rand will have on the debate about budgets and monetary policy will be HUGE. History is coming around to Ron Paul. The grass roots is growing. Even if Ron doesn't win, his influence in 12 will produce a groundswell of liberty brushfires just like it did in 08.
IMO.