What's the likelihood of Romney not winning on the first ballot?

[tbone717]

Judging by the 2008 numbers, Paul didn't break 8% in either of the three states voting today. Of course we are in a different situation now, but judging by performance this primary, I'd bet Paul doesn't get more than 20% in any of those states. Just trying to be realistic. I really do hope I'm wrong though, and that we have stronger grassroots in those states than last time.

BTW, where are the state-by-state polling results?

Polls are at realclearploitics, but they are old. Results tonight will be on the major news outlet sites and at http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

 

[tbone717]

Paul can also capitalize on goodwill by campaigning where Romney won't. Some states are funny that way..

Agreed. NE's delegates are all unbound, so the convention strategy can be employed here successfully. Winning the primary means nothing, but there can be some momentum obviously gained from it. Oregon would be a relatively easy state to campaign in since the population is somewhat centralized. (see the map here)

KY and AR are right next to each other, so Paul can make camp in Bowling Green and hit all the major stops in both states with ease.

TX is all by itself on the calendar, so after AR & KY he could have a full week in TX hitting every major city.

The tough stretch is the Jun 5 states (CA, NJ, SD, MT, NM). There is no practical way to hit all those cities, but they can cross that bridge when and if they come to it.

 

[MarcusI]

True, but there has been a week since Newt official suspended, and really two weeks considering he announced he was going to suspend almost a week before he did. We will just have to see tonight if Paul benefits from being the only remaining challenger left in the race or if his numbers remain flat. I think the numbers to look for would be as follows:

NC: Romney's highest poll numbers came in late April at 48, but prior to that he was in the low 30's. Paul would want to keep Romney in the 30's and capture the state.
IN: That would have been Santorum's state if he stayed in the race. Can Paul capture the Santorum and Newt vote there and win the majority of votes?
WV: Romney has never been strong in WV, polling in the high teens. If Paul can keep Romney at that level he could walk away with 70% or more of the vote.

What will be concerning is if Romney wins these states by large margins, especially IN and WV which were never particularly favorable to him. Given that turnout should be low, Paul should be able to mobilize his support and the support of other anti-Romney voters to secure victories.

Oh my goodness. Dont make yourself so much illusions, or it will be a very bad night for you...

For Paul everything over 20% would be good, and if Romney would be under 50% in any state it would be a huge night.

 

[Liberty74]

We need to prevent him from receiving 1144 Delegates in total.

The only way to accomplish that task is to win the vast majority of the remaining states. I mean actually win the popular vote. If Romney continues to rack up states, he will easily get to 1144. We can't do the 60/40 deal like in VA where we only received 3 delegates. We have to WIN. That will stop Romney immediately.

 

[Jarg]

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He's been spending a lot of time in CA and TX. There may be a strategy to it... As in, stay on the down low so that Romney doesn't bother campaigning. If Romney bots think he's already won, why would they bother showing up?

Maybe you are a Romney bot?

Dissagree one thing paul does be called romney bot....

To many overly defensive paul bots here.

 

[flynn]

We may not win today, we may not win in August, we may not win in 2016, 2020, 2024, but we will prevail and our children will salute us.

You should know in 2016, people between 18 to 35 are the largest voting block in the U.S.

 

[Karsten]

We may not win today, we may not win in August, we may not win in 2016, 2020, 2024, but we will prevail and our children will salute us.

Considering that in 2008, no one knew who RP was, and this year RP got ever so close from winning game changing first contests like Ames Straw poll, Iowa Caucus and NH primary -- and that now we have RP people taking over key early states at the conventions... I think our odds for 2016 are VERY high for Rand, even if the polls (it's 4 years away) don't show it yet.

 

[Jovan Galtic]

[video=metacafe;627199/nothing_is_impossible/]http://www.metacafe.com/watch/627199/nothing_is_impossible/[/video]

 

[DamianTV]

Ron Paul will win on the first ballot.

We're going to win. What I think is holding us back is how we phrase that we are going to win. Romney's campaign markets stuff like "make no mistake of who the Republican Nominee will be". Our statements are a little more realistic. So just replace Robama with Ron Paul. Thats right. It WILL be Ron Paul! Dont even worry about Bound Delegates, because there is quite a bit of stuff that indicate that Bound Delegates will be a Non Issue.

WE WILL SECURE THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR RON PAUL!

 

[dancjm]

Can someone explain to me what this means?

 

[gerryb]

The only way to accomplish that task is to win the vast majority of the remaining states. I mean actually win the popular vote. If Romney continues to rack up states, he will easily get to 1144. We can't do the 60/40 deal like in VA where we only received 3 delegates. We have to WIN. That will stop Romney immediately.

We've taken a majority of the delegates chosen out of VA so far...

 

[Eisenhower]

Romney WILL garner the most votes on the first ballot, but will not have enough to win. This will go past the first ballot most definitely.

 

[S.Shorland]

You mean a 'Mitt-Wit'?

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He's been spending a lot of time in CA and TX. There may be a strategy to it... As in, stay on the down low so that Romney doesn't bother campaigning. If Romney bots think he's already won, why would they bother showing up?

Maybe you are a Romney bot?