What's the likelihood of Romney not winning on the first ballot?

[tbone717]

The results tonight should be an indicator of where Paul stands at this juncture. Given that the convention victories have gotten a decent amount of coverage in the media (Sunday it was the lead story on the Fox News radio report they play at the bottom of the hour here), and that turnout is expected to be low in all these states, we will be able to see if Paul has been able to capitalize on these successes and positioning himself as the means to block Romney from winning the nomination outright.

 

[Jarg]

The results tonight should be an indicator of where Paul stands at this juncture. Given that the convention victories have gotten a decent amount of coverage in the media (Sunday it was the lead story on the Fox News radio report they play at the bottom of the hour here), and that turnout is expected to be low in all these states, we will be able to see if Paul has been able to capitalize on these successes and positioning himself as the means to block Romney from winning the nomination outright.

Did paul campagin in any states tonight or put in time there?

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

If anything happens to Romney between now and then - scandal, Romney drops out, a lawsuit with tempory order from a judge unbinding delegates due to cheating, etc, and it is all over.

 

[69360]

If anything happens to Romney between now and then - scandal, he drops out, a lawsuit cases a tempory order from a judge that unbinds delegates due to cheating, etc, and it is all over.

No it's not. Gingrich or Santorum would come back or a new candidate like Jeb would emerge.

 

[VictorB]

The way to measure it is based on how hard Romney tries to stop us, or how desperate he becomes. Romney has his internal numbers. If he thinks he's not going to make it on the 1st, then he will fight us tooth and nail for delegates.

He's already started to in Maine and Mass. That speaks volumes.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

No it's not. Gingrich or Santorum would come back or a new candidate like Jeb would emerge.

In context to the subject of the title, it will be all over. Ron Paul could win on the first ballot.

 

[sailingaway]

The results tonight should be an indicator of where Paul stands at this juncture. Given that the convention victories have gotten a decent amount of coverage in the media (Sunday it was the lead story on the Fox News radio report they play at the bottom of the hour here), and that turnout is expected to be low in all these states, we will be able to see if Paul has been able to capitalize on these successes and positioning himself as the means to block Romney from winning the nomination outright.

it generally takes longer than that to percolate before a response occurs, but I hope it happens.

 

[sailingaway]

Did paul campagin in any states tonight or put in time there?

No, and he did in Ca and TX to some extent.

 

[Tyler_Durden]

the momentum has shifted greatly since newt and santorum are out. We have always been ready for this moment and now with more MSM stories on the delegate strategy I would say if it goes to a second vote Romney will lose

On a 2nd Vote, we can convince more of Romney's delegates on the floor to swing our way than they can swing us. we are entrenched and dedicated. Romney's delegates aren't.

 

[wgadget]

Neither Ron nor Romney campaigned in any of today's states.

 

[VictorB]

Neither Ron nor Romney campaigned in any of today's states.

I don't think Romney has been, or will go to TX or CA anytime soon. He will not campaign for upcoming states when he is already the "nominee" because it is a sign of weakness. People are going to say he's scared of RP.

 

[Jarg]

No, and he did in Ca and TX to some extent.

Then if he loses he can only blame him self

 

[Barrex]

***FOLLOWING STATEMENT/JOKE IS NOT TO BE REPEATED, DISCUSSED,READ ALOUD, OR QUOTED***

We still got that "vote flipping" card. (if they would actually move, make some viable plan and executed it...)

 

[tbone717]

it generally takes longer than that to percolate before a response occurs, but I hope it happens.

True, but there has been a week since Newt official suspended, and really two weeks considering he announced he was going to suspend almost a week before he did. We will just have to see tonight if Paul benefits from being the only remaining challenger left in the race or if his numbers remain flat. I think the numbers to look for would be as follows:

NC: Romney's highest poll numbers came in late April at 48, but prior to that he was in the low 30's. Paul would want to keep Romney in the 30's and capture the state.
IN: That would have been Santorum's state if he stayed in the race. Can Paul capture the Santorum and Newt vote there and win the majority of votes?
WV: Romney has never been strong in WV, polling in the high teens. If Paul can keep Romney at that level he could walk away with 70% or more of the vote.

What will be concerning is if Romney wins these states by large margins, especially IN and WV which were never particularly favorable to him. Given that turnout should be low, Paul should be able to mobilize his support and the support of other anti-Romney voters to secure victories.

 

[tbone717]

I don't think Romney has been, or will go to TX or CA anytime soon. He will not campaign for upcoming states when he is already the "nominee" because it is a sign of weakness. People are going to say he's scared of RP.

This is correct. Romney was in MI today or yesterday I believe. It seems like that at the present time Romney will be focusing on the November battleground states instead of the remaining primary states. Paul does have an opportunity here. After tonight there are 11 states that will vote, it would be very smart for Paul to campaign heavily in those states presenting himself as the only means to prevent Romney from winning the nomination outright. I have seen on other sites that people are considering voting for Paul not because they want him to be the nominee, but because they want a do-over in Tampa.

 

[opinionatedfool]

I don't think Romney has been, or will go to TX or CA anytime soon. He will not campaign for upcoming states when he is already the "nominee" because it is a sign of weakness. People are going to say he's scared of RP.

He's been forced to focus on Obama, which is great.

 

[DEGuy]

True, but there has been a week since Newt official suspended, and really two weeks considering he announced he was going to suspend almost a week before he did. We will just have to see tonight if Paul benefits from being the only remaining challenger left in the race or if his numbers remain flat. I think the numbers to look for would be as follows:

NC: Romney's highest poll numbers came in late April at 48, but prior to that he was in the low 30's. Paul would want to keep Romney in the 30's and capture the state.
IN: That would have been Santorum's state if he stayed in the race. Can Paul capture the Santorum and Newt vote there and win the majority of votes?
WV: Romney has never been strong in WV, polling in the high teens. If Paul can keep Romney at that level he could walk away with 70% or more of the vote.

What will be concerning is if Romney wins these states by large margins, especially IN and WV which were never particularly favorable to him. Given that turnout should be low, Paul should be able to mobilize his support and the support of other anti-Romney voters to secure victories.

Judging by the 2008 numbers, Paul didn't break 8% in either of the three states voting today. Of course we are in a different situation now, but judging by performance this primary, I'd bet Paul doesn't get more than 20% in any of those states. Just trying to be realistic. I really do hope I'm wrong though, and that we have stronger grassroots in those states than last time.

BTW, where are the state-by-state polling results?

 

[opinionatedfool]

Then if he loses he can only blame him self

-

He's been spending a lot of time in CA and TX. There may be a strategy to it... As in, stay on the down low so that Romney doesn't bother campaigning. If Romney bots think he's already won, why would they bother showing up?

Maybe you are a Romney bot?

 

[wgadget]

Lol. So Romney's campaigning is restricted so he doesn't look weak. That is doubly true, because even when he DOES campaign he looks weak. In Ohio the crowd was small, and he deferred to Obama.

 

[wgadget]

This is correct. Romney was in MI today or yesterday I believe. It seems like that at the present time Romney will be focusing on the November battleground states instead of the remaining primary states. Paul does have an opportunity here. After tonight there are 11 states that will vote, it would be very smart for Paul to campaign heavily in those states presenting himself as the only means to prevent Romney from winning the nomination outright. I have seen on other sites that people are considering voting for Paul not because they want him to be the nominee, but because they want a do-over in Tampa.

Paul can also capitalize on goodwill by campaigning where Romney won't. Some states are funny that way..