What's the likelihood of Romney not winning on the first ballot?

[LawnWake]

And if this has already been answered, by all means link me the thread. People are saying that the delegate strategy is working, but this is only the case if we get passed the first ballot.

 

[sailingaway]

We won't know until the time comes.

Believe what you like.

 

[Elwar]

Ron Paul will win on the first ballot.

 

[TrishW]

Ron Paul will win on the first ballot.

I like the way you think!

 

[69360]

In all seriousness, it's too soon to say right now.

 

[Gray Fullbuster]

We may not win today, we may not win in August, we may not win in 2016, 2020, 2024, but we will prevail and our children will salute us.

 

[pmbug]

Romney lost his soul to the Wall Street cabal a long time ago.

 

[Darguth]

We may not win today, we may not win in August, we may not win in 2016, 2020, 2024, but we will prevail and our children will salute us.

Depends on how you define "winning". I think we're winning right now, personally. The number of individuals just within my close circle of contacts that have opened their eyes to the message of liberty is amazing.

 

[DEGuy]

If you are looking for a crystal ball, Intrade might be a good place to start.

 

[S.Shorland]

Yes I think you are winning and as you are fighting for us in Britain by proxy,we are winning.

 

[smithtg]

the momentum has shifted greatly since newt and santorum are out. We have always been ready for this moment and now with more MSM stories on the delegate strategy I would say if it goes to a second vote Romney will lose

 

[CommonSense99]

..

 

[Algorres]

As the state conventions continue we should start to get a picture of how many delegates we end up with. Bound or unbound does not matter the sheer numbers do. Time will tell.

 

[ninepointfive]

We need to prevent him from receiving 1144 Delegates in total.

 

[Gray Fullbuster]

It's pretty much going to be down to the itty gritty, a hair, a sliver of a chance of preventing a first ballot Romney capture and we're only going to get that hole in the death star if we work our hardest and continue.

Then it's a shot in the dark, if Luke did it though, so can we.

 

[opinionatedfool]

As many rp delegates as possible should abstain on first vote (I know some states this may not work) or figure out how to get unbound before the convention.

 

[OrbitzXT]

I'm most afraid of the RNC cheating and preventing us from even having a chance. These people have displayed time and time again that they will cheat for the sake of their candidate of choice.

 

[NoOneButPaul]

I'd say about 10%

But it's still worth fighting for that 90.

 

[Jarg]

Real issue is paul needs to do more in the primarys's or main first votes...

If he does not get 40% or close in texas and california this race is over.

 

[Suzu]

It all depends on how many non-RP delegates receive a postcard like the one my friend Mike in Springfield suggests: