The model to look at is of course Perot in 1992. A lot of people on this forum are too young to remember the Perot race, but he was actually leading both Clinton and Bush in 1992. Out of curiosity, I went to a MASSIVE rally in Denver for Perot, just to see what it was all about. Perot was literally on the way to possibly winning the White House when he suddenly dropped out of the race and sabotaged his own campaign. Ed Rollins' book details the bizarre behavior of Perot during this time. If he had not flipped out, Perot could have WON that race. Even after all his bizarre behavior, he still pulled 20 million votes!!