What Happens After NH?

[eric4186]

well now that we're in the lead in Iowa I think it's time we start taking a hard look at how to use a win there to propel ourselves to victory, and that means analyzing the states after Iowa and NH.

let's say we get 1st in Iowa and a strong 2nd in NH. Next comes South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and Maine. South Carolina and Florida are not looking too good, and have Gingrich with a strong lead. They may just be behind the times and Gingrich will fall there over the next few weeks just like in Iowa and NH but I don't think there's much of a chance we'll do too well there. A strong 3rd place finish in both these states would be advantageous though and is pretty likely.

Then comes Nevada and Maine. Both of these states I think we could really win. In 2008 we got second place in Nevada with 18% of the vote and 3rd place in Maine with 14% of the vote. In 2008. With the kind of campaign we've got going this time I don't see why we can't win these states. However, I can't find much polling data on them so it's hard to really say.

Next comes Colorado and Minnesota, both of which I think we have reason to be optimistic about, especially Minnesota. In 2008 we got 15% of the vote there. Colorado we got about 8%.

I'd really like to see some recent poll numbers on these post-NH states, but they seem to be no where to be found. Does anyone have any data on these?

 

[PauliticsPolitics]

This is a week or so old, but it lays out some bidnus pretty well.
http://technorati.com/politics/article/year-of-the-caucuses-ron-pauls/#ixzz1fuCoqBDL

 

[tsai3904]

These are all from PPP and these surveys only contacted likely primary voters, which is very different from likely caucus voters.

Nevada
10/10 - 10/23

Romney 29%
Cain 28%
Gingrich 15%
Paul 7%
Perry 6%
Bachmann 3%
Huntsman 2%
Santorum 2%
Johnson 0%

Maine
10/28 - 10/31

Cain 29%
Romney 24%
Gingrich 18%
Paul 5%
Bachmann 5%
Perry 4%
Santorum 2%
Huntsman 1%
Johnson 1%

Colorado
12/1 - 12/4

Gingrich 37%
Romney 18%
Bachmann 9%
Paul 6%
Perry 4%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 3%
Johnson 1%

Minnesota
5/27 - 5/30

Pawlenty 38%
Bachmann 19%
Romney 11%
Cain 10%
Paul 9%
Gingrich 5%
Huntsman 1%

 

[milo10]

It is too early to have the least idea re what things will look like in South Carolina or Florida. We don't even have a really clear idea of Iowa, especially with Newt falling right now.

If we win both Iowa and New Hampshire, we have probably won the nomination. If we lose Iowa, we have probably lost the nomination. The only exception on that last I can think of is if there is some weird dynamic going on.

 

[steacj78]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwrTR2iNqGU#t=2m15s

Yeah!

 

[eric4186]

It is too early to have the least idea re what things will look like in South Carolina or Florida. We don't even have a really clear idea of Iowa, especially with Newt falling right now.

If we win both Iowa and New Hampshire, we have probably won the nomination. If we lose Iowa, we have probably lost the nomination. The only exception on that last I can think of is if there is some weird dynamic going on.

yeah, I agree top priority should be winning NH along with Iowa. I hope the campaign is now redoubling their efforts there in light of these poll numbers. A win in NH is definitely not out of the question if we can bring Romney down, and winning both Iowa and NH would be a much better way of shocking the establishment and gaining the necessary momentum needed to secure a nomination.

However it's nice to see states like Nevada, Maine, and Minnesota on the horizon as possibilities for winning after the likely relatively poor performance in South Carolina and Florida. I think in those two states a strong second place finish would be excellent news.

 

[nasaal]

I don't see us doing better than 3rd or so in Florida, but we can still put in the work there. Nevada and SC are where Paul can make a huge statement. What are his chances in VA btw? Just curious because I plan on doing work here, is it a foregone conclusion state or a state up to grabs for all?

 

[milo10]

However it's nice to see states like Nevada, Maine, and Minnesota on the horizon as possibilities for winning after the likely relatively poor performance in South Carolina and Florida. I think in those two states a strong second place finish would be excellent news.

I agree, although I don't like the winner-take-all aspect of Florida. Hopefully that will be overturned.

Elections are very much about momentum, as Giuliani learned in 2008. Probably every single Republican candidate wrote off Florida that year, as the frontrunner Giuliani campaigned there almost exclusively. But by the time Florida came around, Giuliani was easily defeated even there by McCain, who had picked up momentum along the way.

Anyway, if Ron wins Iowa, expect an absolute explosion of grassroots interest, volunteers, and donations.

 

[speciallyblend]

It is too early to have the least idea re what things will look like in South Carolina or Florida. We don't even have a really clear idea of Iowa, especially with Newt falling right now.

If we win both Iowa and New Hampshire, we have probably won the nomination. If we lose Iowa, we have probably lost the nomination. The only exception on that last I can think of is if there is some weird dynamic going on.

totally agree ,i do see a window if we place 2nd in iowa and strong top 1-3 thru out the rest of the states! If we win iowa and nh. Then i think we should outright win the gop nomination. If the gop voters draw this out to convention. I think we have a strong chance to win the gop nomination. Win IA/NH and i think it paves the road for Ron Paul 2012 very early. Ron Paul for the Long Haul

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t724bHjCa-I<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t724bHjCa-I">


I want us to sweep it early but the longer it goes to the convention and we pull top 3 and 1st finishes. Then we crush it at the convention unless the gop wants obama!