What Happened to Rand Paul? (Redstate)

jllundqu

jllundqu

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http://www.redstate.com/2015/07/16/what-the-hell-happened-to-rand-paul/

Here is the guy who should be doing some cross-party fusion. He rallied a lot of Americans in bipartisan fashion on national security. He seemed to be playing his cards right. And . . . ? Bernie Sanders is kicking his butt in campaign fundraising. In fact, I dare say Sanders froze Paul’s chance at fusion. All the little rich libertine millennials that Paul was counting on, instead got excited for Sanders. But I am still really surprised by this.

Paul only raised $6.9 million. Ben Carson raised $10.6. And that is money raised by the candidate, not the Super PAC. The fact that a guy like Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) 84%, Mister Individualist, is having to depend on two outside Super PACs to raise money for him — and neither have released totals yet — is really surprising. I suspect it was a strategic miscalculation for Paul to enter the race when he did because it meant he could no longer coordinate with his Super PAC. Perhaps Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100%‘s strategy of jumping in early stroked Paul’s ego in a way that forced a strategic mistake. As long as Paul did not formally declare, he could fundraise with the Super PACs. But the moment Cruz got in, Paul felt compelled to jump in too.



To be fair, most of Paul’s contributions are less than $200.00 a piece. That shows he has some real grassroots support. But that’s not enough. He got in Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) 63%‘s bed in Kentucky and McConnell made kissy face through his re-election. The moment McConnell’s victory was secure he kicked Paul out of the bed. Paul has misplayed his hand on social issues and, for large donors, national security issues too.

The blunt fact of the matter is that between Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) 84% and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100%, it turns out the base loves Cruz more. Cruz raised $14.3 million to Paul’s $6.9 million, excluding SuperPAC dollars. Cruz is second in the GOP race, behind Bush, with Super PAC dollars and it does not seem Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) 84% will beat him when his Super PACs finally show what they raised.

I am genuinely surprised by this. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) 84% should be doing much better. He actually has a good story. He actually has positions that set him apart from the GOP field. He has a built in base of support from his father. But remarkably it appears Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) 84% will be less a factor on 2016 than his dad was in 2012. I really never expected that. And not only that, if you pay attention to the campaign schedule, Paul is marching to the beat of his own drummer in ways that suggest the drummer isn’t really headed toward the White House. Michigan? Really?

What the hell happened?
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What happened is that there are literally tons of candidates to choose from and the average GOP voter, right now, doesn't probably see a reason to pick Paul over anyone else.
 
Just a couple thoughts.

1. Erick Erickson has it entirely wrong when he says, "But the moment Cruz got in, Paul felt compelled to jump in too." It was exactly the opposite. Rand made it clear that he would be announcing on April 7th before we heard anything from Cruz. It was only after Rand made the announcement that he would be picking that date did Cruz later give short notice that he would be getting into the race. March 17th it was announced that Rand would be picking April 7th. March 21st is the first article that mentions Cruz would be entering the race. It was Cruz that rushed into it to be the first one in the race.

2. While some people, including Erickson, seem puzzled as to why Rand is focusing on states like Michigan or positioning himself more towards the general before even making it through the primary, I think Rand has his reasons for doing this. Running for the general in a sense is a plank for him to succeed in the primary. I think once the campaign really gets going Rand will be campaigning hard on the fact that he is the only one that can beat Hillary, especially in purple states. Rand every now and then brings it up, but hasn't been hitting that point too hard, but I think he will eventually. That alone won't be able to win the primary but I do think it is one thing that makes him more appealing. I'm positive Rand will be pounding Iowa, New Hampshire and the other states that are incredibly important in the primary at some point, but from the way I see it, positioning himself as the one to beat Hillary is what he's trying to do at this point, and he will leverage that later closer to primary season. That's just what I think he's aiming to do, whether it's good strategy or not idk, I think it could potentially work out well.
 
I can't really refute any of these points. He's just another candidate at the moment. That has to change. And the alliance with McConnell was totally misplayed. Where is the so-called money? Rand's rep took a hit and he gained little from it.
 
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Rand just lost a golden opportunity to set himself apart as the only Republican candidate to be against sanctioning Iran. I'm certain that hurt him quite a bit. And maybe it pushed a few foreign-policy-single-issue voters toward Bernie. But I doubt very many. Their philosophies as a whole are just too opposite.
 
Rand is getting ready to show everyone why he's the only one that can beat Hillary. I expect fantastic ads to come out just at the right time, showing republicans what the polls say; that with Jeb, they will lose AGAIN. And with Paul they will WIN, BIG.
 
He has a built in base of support from his father.
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That "base of support" has been told repeatedly for over 3 years now that it isn't enough, that pandering to the mainstream is the only way to win, that education campaigns are losing propositions, and, in short, that they're irrelevant.

If the mainstream continues not to bite, are we going to double down on that also-losing strategy, or are we going to figure out what worked from both approaches?
 
Nothing happened... this is the first quarter of fundraising. Ron raised similar in 08 and 12. People need to be patient
 
I'll explain why Rand Paul failed to gain traction.

(1) Throwing away his independent credibility for Mitch McConnell. It's hypocritical to say that you want to fight the Washington Machine when you pal around with one of the most influential architects of that Washington machine.

(2) utilizing SJW language - examine his ridiculous comments during the McDaniel primary to the recent Confederate Flag controversy. You do not utilize the language of the enemy to make policy points, no matter how earnest you may appear.

(3) trying to be the great unifier when people don't want to be unified. People desire someone with steadfast principles to take the fight to enemy. Citizens are naturally drawn to strength as opposed to mealy mouthed appeasing.

(4) carving your own tactful way to take on the brewing infection known as illegal immigration. You don't have to scream from the rooftops about illegal aliens to make salient points about the cronyism associated with such enterprise. I haven't heard Rand mention a peep about the Chamber of Commerce and their underhanded dealings regarding our illegal immigration problem. And why not bring up the NAU? Ron would never hide when these topics were brought up.
 
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AuH20 said:
I'll explain why Rand Paul failed to gain traction.

(1) Throwing away his independent credibility for Mitch McConnell. It's hypocritical to say that you want to fight the Washington Machine when you pal around with one of the most influential architects of that Washington machine.

(2) utilizing SJW language - examine his ridiculous comments during the McDaniel primary to the recent Confederate Flag controversy. You do not utilize the language of the enemy to make policy points, no matter how earnest you may appear.

(3) trying to be the great unifier when people don't want to be unified. People desire someone with steadfast principles to take the fight to enemy. Citizens are naturally drawn to strength as opposed to mealy mouthed appeasing.

(4) carving your own tactful way to take on the brewing infection known as illegal immigration. You don't have to scream from the rooftops about illegal aliens to make salient points about the cronyism associated with such enterprise. I haven't heard Rand mention a peep about the Chamber of Commerce and their underhanded dealings regarding our illegal immigration problem. And why not bring up the NAU? Ron would never hide when these topics were brought up.
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DUde, he hasnt failed to gain traction, he's doing better than Ron in 07 and 11. Some patience please
 
Warlord said:
DUde, he hasnt failed to gain traction, he's doing better than Ron in 07 and 11. Some patience please
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Given that he was a shooting star after his Randslide, he is under-performing. Rand was poised to be the anti-establishment foil to Bush, but his missteps created an opening for Trump.
 
If Rand Paul ran as the 2010 Rand Paul, he wouldn't be in this predicament. That dude was a scary opponent.
 
AuH20 said:
Given that he was a shooting star after his Randslide, he is under-performing. Rand was poised to be the anti-establishment foil to Bush, but his missteps created an opening for Trump.
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we haven't even had the first debate yet :rolleyes: Like I said show some patience. The campaign wont peak for another 6 months. That is the important time not right now
 
Warlord said:
we haven't even had the first debate yet :rolleyes: Like I said show some patience. The campaign wont peak for another 6 months. That is the important time not right now
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I hope you're right, man. I hope there is some grand strategy that I am not privy too. The media will ignore him, now that he's in the middle of the pack.
 
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AuH20 said:
I hope you're right, man. I hope there is some grand strategy that I am not privy too. The media will ignore him, now that he's in the middle of the pack.
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The strategy is on the ground in states like Iowa and NH. I assure yo the campaign is very active in building momentum
 
Wait until the debates. Nothing is going to change the field one way or the other until he can debate the others and show why he is the man to support.
 
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