What do you see gold doing over the next several weeks? Buy now, or wait?

youngbuck

youngbuck

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I'm wanting the buy an ounce of gold to diversify the ~200 ounces of silver I got. It'll be my first gold purchase, and I'm wanting to make it within the next 3-4 weeks.

Is there anything going on right now in the markets that indicate a price drop over the next several weeks? Just today (at the time of this post), gold has dropped nearly $30. Any indicators it will continue to fall, or should I just pull the trigger now?
 
youngbuck said:
I'm wanting the buy an ounce of gold to diversify the ~200 ounces of silver I got. It'll be my first gold purchase, and I'm wanting to make it within the next 3-4 weeks.

Is there anything going on right now in the markets that indicate a price drop over the next several weeks? Just today (at the time of this post), gold has dropped nearly $30. Any indicators it will continue to fall, or should I just pull the trigger now?
Click to expand...

Buy when you are able.

Jim Rogers says "I am the worse guy to pick a high or a low in any market. I suck at it."

If HE can't do it, YOU can't do it.

You buy because the fundamentals say "Buy"
You sell because the fundamentals say "Sell"

What the price of your good happens to be at that time is irrelevant.

The fundamentals for gold says "Buy"
 
Nobody can predict what anything like gold may do in the short term or predict when it will move higher or lower. The important thing is do you think it will go up in the future by the time you think you may want/ need to sell it? If this is the case, don't worry about what it may do in the next few weeks. If you aren't sure what it may do by the time you sell or think it may go lower, then I would say don't buy. The only way you can know for certain if a particlar time was a good time to buy is when it is in the past- and by then it is too late to get in at that price.
 
Gold at this price point is NOT very risky, but I can see it falling a bit further in the short term.

This year is likely to be rough for PM's...Election cycle...central banks are doing their best to pump equities, credit markets and put a lid on PM's.

To be honest, a "buy when you can" mentality for this year is solid. This year is a definitive accumulation year.

NEXT YEAR will likely be the real pop off for PM's.

My word is not gospel, of course, but I'm doing my best to buy in all year and then watch the fireworks come Nov 2012 and after.
 
I am well aware of the concept of buying based on fundamentals. That's why I'm buying gold in the first place. But, like Seraphim mentions, there are some things that may depress the price of gold, such as the elections, etc.

Maybe I'll have to be more flexible in my time period: I'll set the cash aside and buy only if it drops below, say, $1600. I'm buying because I see some serious inflation problems in the next 5 years, and I think I'll be able to make at least a couple thousand profit. And if not, I'll just keep it as savings.
 
It may be wise just to buy it...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/japans-shocking-keynesian-slip-we-are-worse-greece


youngbuck said:
I am well aware of the concept of buying based on fundamentals. That's why I'm buying gold in the first place. But, like Seraphim mentions, there are some things that may depress the price of gold, such as the elections, etc.

Maybe I'll have to be more flexible in my time period: I'll set the cash aside and buy only if it drops below, say, $1600. I'm buying because I see some serious inflation problems in the next 5 years, and I think I'll be able to make at least a couple thousand profit. And if not, I'll just keep it as savings.
Click to expand...
 
youngbuck said:
I am well aware of the concept of buying based on fundamentals. That's why I'm buying gold in the first place. But, like Seraphim mentions, there are some things that may depress the price of gold, such as the elections, etc.

Maybe I'll have to be more flexible in my time period: I'll set the cash aside and buy only if it drops below, say, $1600. I'm buying because I see some serious inflation problems in the next 5 years, and I think I'll be able to make at least a couple thousand profit. And if not, I'll just keep it as savings.
Click to expand...

It will not go below 1650 - and it will not -for long- hang around this 1700 price point for long....
 
What if it never goes down to $1600 and instead goes to over $2000? OR what if it went to $1600- and kept going down?
 
personally I would not sell silver to buy gold at this point... silver/gold ratio is still way way way below historical average
 
Looking at a 20 year chart it doesn't look that far off:
http://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html
gold_20_year_silver.png


36 year chart:
gold_all_data_silver.png
 
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Why are you buying it? If you are buying it to store your wealth, then now is as good a time as any since gold is roughly as valuable as it has always been. The price of gold has been driven down by fractional reserve paper gold flooding the market, so actual physical gold is really dirt cheap at these prices.

If you are buying to cash them in for dollars in the near future then I guess you need to worry about these things, but it is still a good time to buy. The only thing the Fed could do to crash the price of gold is to jack interest rates up, and that isn't going to happen. They would bankrupt the federal government if they did. They would sooner destroy the dollar than bankrupt the federal government.

They can sell more paper to try and keep the price as low as possible, but at a certain point people will catch on and demand their gold, so they won't want to trigger a run on the paper gold funds. There is very little they can do to bring down the price, they can only fight to keep it from rising too much.

Being an election year though, you could see the Fed printing money to give Obama a better looking economy, you could have a new war or two, you could have more and bigger Euro bailouts. All of these would shoot up the price of gold. I would say no matter the reason it is a good time to buy if you are able.
 
Zippyjuan said:
What if it never goes down to $1600 and instead goes to over $2000? OR what if it went to $1600- and kept going down?
Click to expand...

Yes, I know how commodities and stocks can change in price. I was just trying to get a feel from others, considering they may have knowledge and insight that I don't, on whether the dollar might be appreciating in the near term for some reason, thereby causing the price of PMs to go down.
 
"Those who live by the crystal bill are doomed to eat broken glass"

The price could go up, the price could go down. There might be wild gyrations.

How long is the investment for? Do you still like the fundamental story?
 
youngbuck said:
Yes, I know how commodities and stocks can change in price. I was just trying to get a feel from others, considering they may have knowledge and insight that I don't, on whether the dollar might be appreciating in the near term for some reason, thereby causing the price of PMs to go down.
Click to expand...

It's been ticking down in price. Since Bernanke is considering doing a modified QE3 by late summer, I can see the price tick down as long there is no abrupt moves with Iran. Usually the markets creep down before a QE3 which allows the big player to buy in before the sudden spike. Keep a eye on the ME and oil prices for now and monitor gold daily. If you see a big dip down, make a partial buy in then wait and see if it drops again and do another partial buy in. Do that until you see a noticible uptick and go the rest in.
 
Ammunition is a a better investment currency with less downside risk than gold or silver. I would still buy precious metals if there's a price drop but here's something to consider. In non-inflation adjusted dollars Gold did not regain it's previous 1980 high until 2008 and that's in non-inflation adjusted dollars. Using .223 / 5.56 ammo for comparison, a 1,000 rounds in 1985 could be found for just under $100, now it will cost you over $400 (non-inflation adjusted). There's more downside risk with Gold as it was below $400 an oz as recently as late 2003. Unless you own physical Gold it might be difficult to redeem investments if there's an economic/societal collapse which ironically what Gold investors are betting on. Those that do time it right and cash out at the last moment will still end up with paper dollars. Ammo has limited downside risk, maybe 25% where as Gold could drop 75%. It's also highly liquid and can easily be disbursed in incremental quantities making it an ideal currency instrument. Finally, without it that sackful of Gold in your hand will end-up in the ammo investors pocket anyway.
 
I have this morning increased my reserv0ir of the pretty yell0w shiny stuff. And it has gone down by a bit since I placed my order. It may go down further - but this was definitely a good time to acquire some more.

Gold is money, and silver is money. FRNs are not money.
 
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