What cottage industries will profit in a depression/ recession?

[phill4paul]

Candidly, Haves don't care about You/General enough to care whether you care. Price and reliability, that's what they care about. I wouldn't be shy about inserting ENGLISH SPEAKING, nor about playing the Patriot Card.]

I am going to have to disagree with this. Caring is the #1 thing that separates my crew from the competition. We are lucky enough to be able to pick and choose who we want to service. We are in this position because of referrals.

Everyone on the crew honestly cares about not only how our lawns look, but whose lawn we are caring for.

Earlier I mentioned the one client we lost. This gentleman had a start up business right at the beginning of the downturn and lost any hope of venture capital. He decided to sell his 1.25 mil home to keep this business afloat in hopes of a turn-around. Now this is a man that during the good times gave to us $7,000 just to plant flowers for a Fourth of July party.

There was also the time that a side job kept us from giving his home the full treatment for about two weeks. He came out and said "Guys, were ya been? You've just been in and out over the last coupla weeks. What's the matter do I need to pay ya more money?" The thing is he meant it.

So when he told us he needed to cut our service and the reason why, our response was that we would service him for free till he sold his home. That's part of caring. It makes no business sense.

Then there is Mrs. Hovey. Her home-made jellies are worth every bit of caring.
and she always makes a special batch for the crew.

I could go on but my point is they may have money, but they still have problems. They have feelings.

Caring. Truly caring has made all the difference in our case.
. With us its Lawn/Care. Equal parts of each.

 

[cheapseats]

I am going to have to disagree with this. Caring is the #1 thing that separates my crew from the competition. We are lucky enough to be able to pick and choose who we want to service. We are in this position because of referrals.

Everyone on the crew honestly cares about not only how our lawns look, but whose lawn we are caring for.

Earlier I mentioned the one client we lost. This gentleman had a start up business right at the beginning of the downturn and lost any hope of venture capital. He decided to sell his 1.25 mil home to keep this business afloat in hopes of a turn-around. Now this is a man that during the good times gave to us $7,000 just to plant flowers for a Fourth of July party.

There was also the time that a side job kept us from giving his home the full treatment for about two weeks. He came out and said "Guys, were ya been? You've just been in and out over the last coupla weeks. What's the matter do I need to pay ya more money?" The thing is he meant it.

So when he told us he needed to cut our service and the reason why, our response was that we would service him for free till he sold his home. That's part of caring. It makes no business sense.

Then there is Mrs. Hovey. Her home-made jellies are worth every bit of caring.
and she always makes a special batch for the crew.

I could go on but my point is they may have money, but they still have problems. They have feelings.

Caring. Truly caring has made all the difference in our case.
. With us its Lawn/Care. Equal parts of each.

Now, see, I LOVE this. And I have been preaching to hard-nosed Skinflints about a few things for YEARS -- notably the tangible and intangible costs of treating people like shit and the tangible and intangible benefits of spending some resources on Worker Morale. But it is not often that I encounter it in practice. The wealthiest people I know are the dearest with a dime.

Then -- while I still applaud what you've got going and advocate for more of it -- people need to know some stuff about the Moneyed Class, ESPECIALLY when THEY start experiencing Reversal of Fortune. Assholes and Shenanigans far far outnumber great clients/bosses like you have and are. In the same way that Men typically derive more of their identity/confidence/self-worth from their Work than women do -- I am speaking in generalities -- the Rich derive more of their identity/confidence/self-worth from their Money.

Reglar Americans have been on the deteriorating quality of life spectrum -- from "mere" downsizing to roughing it to plain old Unemployment -- for some time now. The Moneyed Class only started to feel the pain when, not coincidentally, the Bailouts began.

In 2009, people will be looking for Savings more than Sweethearts, I'm afraid. How much can we shave? Where can we cut? As you pointed out, many of them will scramble for awhile yet, maintaining appearances, but Price will be Issue Number One.

As well, bear in mind that I am talking about diverting work that is presently being handed to Illegal Immigrants, tax-free, at below par wages -- in other words, securing work from people who are NOT the most ethical.

Moving forward, your way is the high way. One of a hundred essays I am struggling to write beyond the first paragraph -- in no small part because I get swept up in this Board -- is geared toward making Big Business more cognizant of the true long-term cost of losing a customer, and the true long-term benefit of a contented workforce.

 

[Sandra]

I would rather hire a caring lawn service that a cold uncaring lawn service.

 

[Sandra]

What about the wood pellet stove business?

 

[slacker921]

Have a care, however. I have not researched statistics but I have thrice been told by credible people that a startling percentage of private security guards have jail/prison records.

very true. I was thinking of the industry of installing security systems - sensors, cctv, etc. It's a fairly specialized job so as demand rises it'll be hard to get good quality people and that equates to higher wages for those with the skill.

 

[Josh_LA]

very true. I was thinking of the industry of installing security systems - sensors, cctv, etc. It's a fairly specialized job so as demand rises it'll be hard to get good quality people and that equates to higher wages for those with the skill.

I've actually worked in that industry, I can tell you the dos and donts.

 

[AmericasLastHope]

I totally disagree that bonds are less safe than FRN
And I totally disagree that small businesses are less safe than real estate.

BUT, I am not in real estate, I just think if you do your homework , and are willing to take loss, reduce risk , both small biz and RE can be profitable.

Why aren't commodities near gold?
And why aren't foreign currencies near FRN?
Hell , shouldn't diamonds be near FRN too?
(I seriously don't think this graph is accurate)

I'm no expert on the Kondratieff Cycle, but here's an explanation by Ian Gordon.

Winter

• Stocks start major bear market, the bear market is in proportion to the preceding bull market
• Debt repudiation significant
• Bankruptcies
• Banks and quasi banks in crisis
• Credit crunch – interest rates rise
• International currency crises – a la 1931-34
• Gold and gold equity prices rise as deflation takes hold


The onset of the Kondratieff Winter is signaled by a peak in stock prices at the end of the great autumn bull market. So it was in 1929 and 2000. This means that we are now in the deflationary/depression stage of the cycle.

'Winter is the worst of times, and the best of times'. It is the worst of times for stocks, real estate and bonds, just as autumn was the best of times for these investments. But it is the best of times for gold and cash. Thus, investment risk has increased dramatically for stocks, bonds and real estate; whereas investment risk in gold and cash is at the lowest point of the entire cycle.

At the height of this autumn bull market an investment manager deemed cash 'trash'? It isn't any more. Cash is king now. Why? Because it's liquid and because its purchasing power rises during the deflationary winter.

If cash is king, what is gold? Well, according to John Exter, a New York Federal Reserve banker in the 1970s, it's a more powerful king than cash. Indeed, during the deflationary winter depression, gold is the most liquid of all assets. In the 1970s John Exter produced an inverse pyramid in which he showed assets in descending order of liquidity. At the top of the pyramid, he deemed small business the most illiquid asset. At the very bottom of the pyramid is gold, considered the most liquid of all assets; more important than cash, which Exter pronounced 'IOU Nothings'. Gold has no IOU attached to it. It is easily transportable and is accepted as money in any country.

There are several reasons why gold performs so well during the Kondratieff Winter and why investment risk in gold is at its lowest during this time.

1. During winter there is a high probability of severe financial and economic dislocation. The massive debt bubble disintegrates, causing bankruptcies and banking problems. The largest debtors and the largest creditors are always vulnerable during the winter debt cleansing process.

Other likely occurrences include the following:
· Derivatives debacle.
· Real estate bust.
· Private Pension plan failures.

2. The world monetary system is collapsing just as it did in the previous Kondratieff Winter. At that time, after Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931, all other countries followed suit and the world monetary system disintegrated. This Winter, the world is abandoning the US dollar. This portends monetary chaos.

Reserve monetary leadership always goes to the world's largest creditor nation. The US is the world's largest debtor nation.

3.. American leadership in the financial, economic and political arenas is waning. This leadership too, passes to the leading creditor nation.

4. Under British stewardship throughout the 19th Century, gold was money. For the first time in more than 5000 years, following US refusal to back the dollar with gold in 1971, the entire world has been subjected to a fiat money system based on the dollar. Governments, particularly the US government, want to convince you that their paper (debt) is as good as gold. You be the judge.

Fiat /Paper money systems have never survived. History is filled with examples like the Assignant and the Confederate dollar.

5. Gold and gold equities are scarce. Annual gold production amounts to a measly 2500 tonnes, which is approximately 75,000,000 ounces. The total market capitalization of all the publicly traded gold stocks is only $200,000 billion versus $17 trillion US equity market cap. Imagine what happens to the price when real demand comes into both the physical metal and gold equities!

Full Article: http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/junior_mining.html

 

[danberkeley]

I would go with any local business.
Farming
Woodcrafting
Auto Mechanic
Etc.

 

[Josh_LA]

I'm no expert on the Kondratieff Cycle, but here's an explanation by Ian Gordon.

Winter

• Stocks start major bear market, the bear market is in proportion to the preceding bull market
• Debt repudiation significant
• Bankruptcies
• Banks and quasi banks in crisis
• Credit crunch – interest rates rise
• International currency crises – a la 1931-34
• Gold and gold equity prices rise as deflation takes hold


The onset of the Kondratieff Winter is signaled by a peak in stock prices at the end of the great autumn bull market. So it was in 1929 and 2000. This means that we are now in the deflationary/depression stage of the cycle.

'Winter is the worst of times, and the best of times'. It is the worst of times for stocks, real estate and bonds, just as autumn was the best of times for these investments. But it is the best of times for gold and cash. Thus, investment risk has increased dramatically for stocks, bonds and real estate; whereas investment risk in gold and cash is at the lowest point of the entire cycle.

At the height of this autumn bull market an investment manager deemed cash 'trash'? It isn't any more. Cash is king now. Why? Because it's liquid and because its purchasing power rises during the deflationary winter.

If cash is king, what is gold? Well, according to John Exter, a New York Federal Reserve banker in the 1970s, it's a more powerful king than cash. Indeed, during the deflationary winter depression, gold is the most liquid of all assets. In the 1970s John Exter produced an inverse pyramid in which he showed assets in descending order of liquidity. At the top of the pyramid, he deemed small business the most illiquid asset. At the very bottom of the pyramid is gold, considered the most liquid of all assets; more important than cash, which Exter pronounced 'IOU Nothings'. Gold has no IOU attached to it. It is easily transportable and is accepted as money in any country.

There are several reasons why gold performs so well during the Kondratieff Winter and why investment risk in gold is at its lowest during this time.

1. During winter there is a high probability of severe financial and economic dislocation. The massive debt bubble disintegrates, causing bankruptcies and banking problems. The largest debtors and the largest creditors are always vulnerable during the winter debt cleansing process.

Other likely occurrences include the following:
· Derivatives debacle.
· Real estate bust.
· Private Pension plan failures.

2. The world monetary system is collapsing just as it did in the previous Kondratieff Winter. At that time, after Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931, all other countries followed suit and the world monetary system disintegrated. This Winter, the world is abandoning the US dollar. This portends monetary chaos.

Reserve monetary leadership always goes to the world's largest creditor nation. The US is the world's largest debtor nation.

3.. American leadership in the financial, economic and political arenas is waning. This leadership too, passes to the leading creditor nation.

4. Under British stewardship throughout the 19th Century, gold was money. For the first time in more than 5000 years, following US refusal to back the dollar with gold in 1971, the entire world has been subjected to a fiat money system based on the dollar. Governments, particularly the US government, want to convince you that their paper (debt) is as good as gold. You be the judge.

Fiat /Paper money systems have never survived. History is filled with examples like the Assignant and the Confederate dollar.

5. Gold and gold equities are scarce. Annual gold production amounts to a measly 2500 tonnes, which is approximately 75,000,000 ounces. The total market capitalization of all the publicly traded gold stocks is only $200,000 billion versus $17 trillion US equity market cap. Imagine what happens to the price when real demand comes into both the physical metal and gold equities!

Full Article: http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/junior_mining.html

This is assuming

1. the future will be like the past
(unlikely due to new regulations and new attitudes)
2. what you see today in numbers is wrong (or not sufficient)
3. you know how long each period in a cycle lasts

The cycle model is very dangerous because it keeps people thinking inside the bubble of a peaceful and well maintained economy (not considering the deck of cards can collapse and go downward way too long to recover)

 

[AmericasLastHope]

Since a good many of us will be looking for a new way to make income in the coming months, what small businesses will prosper in these times?

Liquor stores.

 

[liberteebell]

I am going to have to disagree with this. Caring is the #1 thing that separates my crew from the competition. We are lucky enough to be able to pick and choose who we want to service. We are in this position because of referrals.

Everyone on the crew honestly cares about not only how our lawns look, but whose lawn we are caring for.

Earlier I mentioned the one client we lost. This gentleman had a start up business right at the beginning of the downturn and lost any hope of venture capital. He decided to sell his 1.25 mil home to keep this business afloat in hopes of a turn-around. Now this is a man that during the good times gave to us $7,000 just to plant flowers for a Fourth of July party.

There was also the time that a side job kept us from giving his home the full treatment for about two weeks. He came out and said "Guys, were ya been? You've just been in and out over the last coupla weeks. What's the matter do I need to pay ya more money?" The thing is he meant it.

So when he told us he needed to cut our service and the reason why, our response was that we would service him for free till he sold his home. That's part of caring. It makes no business sense.

Then there is Mrs. Hovey. Her home-made jellies are worth every bit of caring.
and she always makes a special batch for the crew.

I could go on but my point is they may have money, but they still have problems. They have feelings.

Caring. Truly caring has made all the difference in our case.
. With us its Lawn/Care. Equal parts of each.

I salute you! I know that I keep going back to business that are caring and have good customer service and I refer others.