What a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish means for Ron Pauls campaign.

[ashlux]

Hannity: "Oh iowa really isn't representative of the entire country and ron paul got all of his supporters to go to the caucus.

Funny how getting your supporters to actually vote can be marginalized.

 

[New York For Paul]

This may be an unprecedented year. A third place in Iowa and third place in New Hampshire and Ron Paul will still be in the race. Very little will be decided untill the south votes.

It is likely no candidate will get enough delegates. Despite the frontloading of the primaries, later primaries may really matter because no candidate will want to drop out.

 

[Talldude1412]

I would be happy with 2nd or third, that alone would make us a "viable" candidate, which everyone keeps telling me he isn't

 

[GoneResistance]

4th place means nothing has changed in Iowa since the Ames straw poll. 3rd or better is a victory for Ron Paul in my eyes.

 

[762x54r]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1411

Ron Paul is at 10% now

 

[Jake!]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1411

Ron Paul is at 10% now

I would be delighted with a 3rd place finish!

 

[Heather in WI]

I'll be elated with 3rd.

I'll be happy with 4th.

I'll not be happy, but not devastated with 5th.

Lower than 5th? Ugh. I don't want to think about that.

 

[kaberUSA]

Really? We're third in the polls in Iowa across the board?
I must've missed that. Fox is excluding RP from their debate based on an expected 3rd place finish in Iowa.

We are expected to finish 5th or 6th. If we finish there, we "met expectations". If we finish below Duncan Hunter, we fell below expectations, it was a disappointment and a loss.

If we meet expectations, we're "on track" we're pleased but not overjoyed with our success. We have money in the bank, and we're in it for the long haul.

4th, 3rd, 2nd or 1st is a massive success, a victory. We are jubilant about it. The campaign puts out the spin, and we hammer home that message.

There is no reason to raise expectations to 3rd. It doesn't benefit us. The MSM has not put us at the 3rd spot. We haven't benefitted from that MSM designated 3rd spot. Some people who like to vote for front runners might choose another candidate because the MSM has set expectations so low.

We want good stories after Iowa, and the best way to get a good story is to exceed expectations.

If we place 3rd, we want to be able to say it was a big victory for us, not that we merely "met expectations".

And I think that everyone on this board thinks that we will definitely exceed expectations.

Exactly. The MSM is where hte majority of voters get their information. I recall seeing a graph that showed that McCain was mentioned tens of thousands of times in the last quarter but Dr. Paul was only mentioned a few hundred.. A 3rd or 4th place will be good. I hope for better but again, the MSM has had no mention of Dr. Paul. If you watch the junk on TV instead of just the few snippets on Youtube you'll realize just how infrequently they talk about Ron Paul.

 

[warmth of the sun]

The current phone polls have him tied for 3rd... we know we have more support than that... so I think we should count on atleast 3rd.

 

[JasonCYST]

I'm sticking to 3rd place.

2nd would be a great surprise.
4th would be a little disappointing, but not THAT bad.
Anything lower would be suspect.

 

[LFOD]

Yes,

I think the tinfoil hatters want to believe there is a true conspiracy to undermine Paul in the MSM. However, quite the opposite, they give him quite a bit of positive coverage.

The thing is... they don't take him seriously.

That's what is at stake. Him being taken seriously. I guess this also depends on what type of Paul supporter you are...

Well, I'm certainly in camp A. I don't see anyone saying they're just happy "if the message gets out"

It's just a question of what we need out of Iowa to get to the next level. 3rd or better will do that. 4th is mixed. We could say we beat Giuliani and Thompson, but losing to McCain before NH would be a negative. It's about building momentum and getting over that "2nd tier" hurdle convincingly.

 

[huchahucha]

What the hell, I'll play. Third place will be fantastic, especially if the percentages are close between the top three spots. Fourth would be OK, especially if it beats McCain. Second place is possible just because RP's supporters are dedicated enough to brave the weather and have been waiting for this night for months. 1st isn't very likely, but stranger things have happened.

 

[lloydian]

+1

3rd is exceeding expectations not meeting expectations

 

[Catatonic]

If the 'paulites' in Iowa drop the ball and get less than 1st I'll be disappointed.

I'd like to think you can refute the validity of the polls by the simple fact that a Ron Paul supporter is about 1,000 times more likely to actually go out and vote. Am I wrong?

 

[smtwngrl]

AAAAHHHHH!!!! This is so nerve racking. I am scared out of my mind. I remember us thinking we could place 3rd or 4th in Ames and we didn't. I am praying (which I never do) we get 3rd.

I understand. I'm a little nervous about that, too. I don't think we will finish less than 3rd or 4th today, though. Watch this video of (Iowa Chairman) Drew Ivers, especially what he says in the latter part about the curve (starting at about 5:00):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wo7G6j6bi4

 

[smtwngrl]

Here's what I think:

1st--I don't think we are there yet.
2nd--would be phenomenal, but we would be under a lot of attack
3rd--Great, this is what I'm hoping for. It would also surpass most MSM expectations, although a couple have suggested he might get 3rd or 4th After this, he could no longer be called a longshot. It would build momentum for NH and other states. Those people out there who like what they've heard from Ron Paul, but think he has no chance, would get a wake up. It would also prompt some people who haven't seriously considered him to take a closer look; and people who still haven't heard of him would have to find out who he is.
4th--would be a bit of a disappointment, though it would still mean he beat out Giuliani and Thompson or McCain If McCain is 3rd, it would give McCain some advantage in NH. But we would still be OK, as long as we did well in NH (preferably 2nd or 1st).
5th--would give the pundits an excuse to start to exclude RP, would make it difficult for him to get momentum

To any who believes that 4th is satisfactory, I think you are attempting to create a buffer for yourself.

We finished 5th at Ames.
1. Mitt Romney
2. Mike Huckabee
3. Sam Brownback out
4. Tom Tancredo out
5. Ron Paul
6. Tommy Thompson
7. Fred Thompson
8. Rudy Giuliani
9. Duncan Hunter
10. John McCain
11. John Cox

With Brownback & Tancredo out a fourth place finish in Iowa would mean we have lost momentum since Ames. We must place ahead of John McCain.

McCain and Giuliani did not even go to the straw poll. Iowans didn't like that, so they placed pitifully there. And Fred Thompson had not even entered the race yet.

 

[parocks]

parocks
Senior Member About:
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 180



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by reduen
Bingo!! +1

Anything less than 3rd is total failure... (I expect a 1st here!)

"Hey, let's try to step back from equating where we are in the polls and total failure.

Look up "expectations game" "



Where did you people learn to compete? Special Olympics?

Seriously please tell me what school of competition you all went to so I can be sure and keep my children from attending!!

It scares me to think of what condition some of you must be in personally... In my family winning is all that counts when in competition. (No excuses, no explanations..)

There are winners and there are loosers. Dr. Ron Paul is a winner!

The expectations are set by the polls. I think we beat expectations. 3rd place definitely beats expectations. A big victory. 2nd place really beats expectations. An even bigger victory. 1st place is the biggest victory of all, really really beating expectations.

5th or 4th is where expectations are. We have a better feel than the political pros, the polls, the pundits about what Iowa voters are going to do, about the work that we are putting in to do well.

We understand the relationship between polls and cell phones better than most.
We understand that cell phones undercount our strength. We understand the passion that Ron Paul inspires and how that passion is going to effect turnout.

Not everybody else expects us to do as well as we know we will however.
The "expectations" are not something we make up. They're an objective reality apart from our wishes.

We do all know that we will exceed expectations.

Front runners, second runners, third runners - they all get a lot of press, because they are the most likely (in theory) to be President. They're more relevant.

We have never gotten the attention given to a candidate predicted to finish first, second or third.

If we do, it's a major surprise, a NEWSWORTHY item.

News story - "This guy, who we neglected to talk about because we thought he would be last or something, ended up doing much better than expected. Because we, the news media, did a bad job of predicting the future, now we have to tell you all about this amazing guy who did much better than we thought, Ron Paul."

Please, try to get a feel for what I mean by "expectations"

I'm not inventing that word here within this political context.

 

[2young2vote]

Hmmm i am expecting a 5th or 6th place finish just to be safe so i am not dissappointed.

 

[PubliusPublicola]

Well, I'm certainly in camp A. I don't see anyone saying they're just happy "if the message gets out"

You missed the part where it's about the message getting out TO CHANGE AMERICA.

I think Paul is in Camp B himself.

Even if Paul doesn't win the primary, there's an opportunity to dramatically change the political landscape in america and to force politicians to respond to different, more sensible "interests" than they do now. There is victory to be had even without the White House. Changing america is possible.

We know this.

The longer and better Paul does in this election year... the more people will see that change is possible.