What a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish means for Ron Pauls campaign.

[Proctor]

I believe Iowa was the way Nixon won his presidency. He had done poorly in national polling, and Iowa brought him up to eventually win the presidency. We have hope.

 

[DesignerJoes]

First place is very possible if we actually get our shit together...

It's all about turnout at 8:30 PM then staying till the better end to vote.... also THEY CAN REGISTER at the caucus. We could ALL hit the phones RIGHT NOW...I MEAN THE ENTIRE RON PAUL ARMY.......

 

[Menthol Patch]

I also think we can take first place. However, even if we are last we need to keep focusing on New Hampshire!

 

[CelestialRender]

7th would be embarrassing, 6th might be a campaign-killer, 5th would be a disappointment, 4th would be on-target, 3rd would be great, 2nd would be phenomenal, 1st would be one for the record books. IMO.

 

[Channing]

If we make 1st place it will not be a given that Ron Paul gets the nomination.

The media will spin it as an anomalous event and point to past elections (e.g. 1988) where the Iowa winner did not get the nomination.

 

[LFOD]

Where do you get your logic that anything short of 1st place is winning? If Ron Paul doesn't have enough name recognition to win in New Hampshire, I don't see him winning any states. We are NOT going to get free press from the media for getting 2nd or 3rd. Even if Ron Paul wins Iowa, I can almost guarentee the headlines will be something like

"POLLS WERE WRONG, FRONTRUNNER COMES IN 3rd!"

"MCCAIN PLACES 4TH, LOSES TO HUCKABEE & ROMNEY!"

"GUILIANI THE BIG LOSER IN IOWA, CAN HE WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE?"

The media will fight Paul to the bitter end. Yes, he coudl recover from a 2nd or lower place finish in Iowa, but it will be hard. Paul needs first in Iowa, in NH, in almost every state.

I think your perception of how a 2nd or 3rd place would play both in the media and nationally to people who aren't familiar with him is way off the mark. 2nd would be the biggest political news of the year. It would send shockwaves throughout the establishment. Even 3rd would shock. Of course winning would be great, but 2nd or 3rd is a HUGE victory.

 

[Karrde]

If we make 1st place it will not be a given that Ron Paul gets the nomination.

The media will spin it as an anomalous event and point to past elections (e.g. 1988) where the Iowa winner did not get the nomination.

but considering Paul wasn't supposed to even be competing for the nomination, I can't imagine this argument will hold much water.

A 1st or 2nd place finish will throw off alot of expectation for what the polls show and probably give Ron enormous media exposure while the pundits try and sort out the reasons (this will consume days, some will disparage, some will support the underdog). After that, its just a matter of gathering up the people that share Ron's message and getting them to vote, because name recognition will close the gap with the front runners (remember, most voters haven't really paid attention to the race yet)

3rd proves Ron is a front runner and will bump him in the national polls I'm sure, but it still means hard work and lots of money spent to guarantee a win or 2nd in NH.

More than anything we need momentum to win, as I think we've already accomplished our goal of demonstrating the pent up desire for true republican and not another RINO liberal/fascist.

 

[Greg in VA]

I have to agree with the sentiment about a third or higher place finish. Iowa is not everything, Iowa frequently goes to the extremes of either ends of the party. Personally I would like to see a good showing in Iowa (3rd or better), first in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

 

[PubliusPublicola]

I think your perception of how a 2nd or 3rd place would play both in the media and nationally to people who aren't familiar with him is way off the mark. 2nd would be the biggest political news of the year. It would send shockwaves throughout the establishment. Even 3rd would shock. Of course winning would be great, but 2nd or 3rd is a HUGE victory.

Yes,

I think the tinfoil hatters want to believe there is a true conspiracy to undermine Paul in the MSM. However, quite the opposite, they give him quite a bit of positive coverage.

The thing is... they don't take him seriously.

That's what is at stake. Him being taken seriously. I guess this also depends on what type of Paul supporter you are...

There are two types of Ron Paul supporters.

Camp A. Those in it to win it

Camp B. Those in it to at least make sure his message changes america

For those in Camp A, you would indeed feel Paul has to win NH even if he places 3rd in Iowa. What matters to you is that Paul is winning it all, against the odds and against popular perceptions.

For those in Camp B, you would be thrilled with 3rd and probably be thrilled with 3rd again in NH. What matters to you is that Paul is BEATING folks like Giuliani, Mccain and Thompson... and thus his message is getting louder and clearer to more americans.

Respect both camps...

 

[parocks]

First place is very possible if we actually get our shit together...

It's all about turnout at 8:30 PM then staying till the better end to vote.... also THEY CAN REGISTER at the caucus. We could ALL hit the phones RIGHT NOW...I MEAN THE ENTIRE RON PAUL ARMY.......

830 pm?

 

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

I think your analysis on "what it means" is off by one.

If we pull 2nd in Iowa it means we've won and we start attacking Hillary and
Obama who is our biggest threat.

Pulling #3 means we exceeded expectations and we start to see a ton
of free media.

Pulling 4th means we're on a good track. MORE than what we expected 1 month ago.
MORE than what the medis expects right now. Our media attention may or may not go up.

5th place means we keep working as hard or harder than ever with the media
set against us. But we have STILL beaten Guliani.

+1

People need to STOP raising expectations unnecessarily by saying we HAVE to get 3rd or above, you're only hurting us in the long run.

 

[reduen]

1st Place: Amazing, Amazing! Media and everyone will be talking about it, but probably put a negative spin to it. Doubt it will happen.
2nd Place: Next best thing next to 1st place (obviously), with less hysteria/spin from media and everyone else. Not very [un]likely.
3rd Place: To be excepted from most of the campaign and a win. Media will take us slightly more seriously, as will everyone else.
4th Place: Beginning of the end of the Ron Paul Republican campaign. RP critics and detractors will be vindicated and media will go in 100% blackout mode.

Bingo!! +1

Anything less than 3rd is total failure... (I expect a 1st here!)

 

[Adamsa]

Finishing ahead of McCain, no matter where you are is the most important for NH.

 

[parocks]

Bingo!! +1

Anything less than 3rd is total failure... (I expect a 1st here!)

Hey, let's try to step back from equating where we are in the polls and total failure.

Look up "expectations game"

 

[Silverfish2910]

1st is the best! If somebody comes from behind to win Iowa that's huge. It's a big smack down to those that have been saying Ron Paul had no chance. Ballot stuffing? Come on! Read up on how the caucuses work... there are no ballots. There are just people who count how many people showed up for each candidate. The totals are tallied up and then sent by phone to a central gop hq.

That's kinda scary. Here in the Philippines, it doesn't matter who votes, what matters is who counts the votes.

 

[parocks]

Finishing ahead of McCain, no matter where you are is the most important for NH.

Agreed.

 

[vegetarianrpfan]

7th would be embarrassing, 6th might be a campaign-killer, 5th would be a disappointment, 4th would be on-target, 3rd would be great, 2nd would be phenomenal, 1st would be one for the record books. IMO.

That is more along the lines of reality. 4th place in Iowa will be thought of as amazing by many and will not be bad at all. That means we would be finishing above either Giuliani and Thompson or Giuliani and McCain. Not too shabby. To call 4th place a "campaign killer" is weird and makes me think the OP is a troll of some sort.

Keep in mind that in many cases, Iowa is totally wrong and the winner does not go on to be the nominee. They chose Bush over Reagan, then Robertson over Bush, I think. They've pretty much only been right on Kerry in recent years.

----------------------
Libertarian Girl
http://www.libertariangirl.com

 

[j6p]

If Ron gets third in Iowa and beats Mc.cain Then in NH Ron will come into 1st or 2nd. We should try not raise the bar to high. By not rasing the bar to high we can ever surprize ourselves.

Iowa -

Hucklebarry
Rummy
Ron Paul

 

[Todd]

Regardless of where we finish....This is not over until the last primary vote is counted.

 

[reduen]

parocks
Senior Member About:
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 180



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by reduen
Bingo!! +1

Anything less than 3rd is total failure... (I expect a 1st here!)

"Hey, let's try to step back from equating where we are in the polls and total failure.

Look up "expectations game" "



Where did you people learn to compete? Special Olympics?

Seriously please tell me what school of competition you all went to so I can be sure and keep my children from attending!!

It scares me to think of what condition some of you must be in personally... In my family winning is all that counts when in competition. (No excuses, no explanations..)

There are winners and there are loosers. Dr. Ron Paul is a winner!