What a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish means for Ron Pauls campaign.

[AgentOrange]

That might work for a 3rd party bid, but he needs first to get the Republican nomination. It's not impossible, but when was the last time a 3rd party candidate won the presidency? Ron Paul needs to get first and win the Republican nomination.

 

[Molly1]

Iowa ---

1st place - Huckabee
2nd place - Romney
3rd place - Ron Paul
4th place - John McCain
5th place - Fred Thompson
6th place - Rudy Giuliani

New Hampshire

1st Place - McCain
2nd Place - Romney
3rd Place - Ron Paul
4th Place - Giuliani
5th Place - Huckabee
6th Place - Thompson

This is my prediction. Anything better would be grand. However, if Dr. Paul can finish 4th or better in Iowa, and 3rd or better in NH, he is in it to the finish line.

Why would mccain beat ron paul in new hampshire? He's a hawk. 70 percent of new hamphire is against the war.

 

[Mastiff]

3rd place would be awesome. I'll be thrilled with that. Iowa is not fertile ground for Ron Paul. If we can get that exposure, we can crank it up from there.

 

[Perry]

That might work for a 3rd party bid, but he needs first to get the Republican nomination. It's not impossible, but when was the last time a 3rd party candidate won the presidency? Ron Paul needs to get first and win the Republican nomination.

I Really have no idea where you're getting your logic from.

 

[lbadragan]

What the hell? We can and must take 1st place. The polls are bogus. We're likely at 15-17% in Iowa if you take into account all the new people that will caucus for Paul and the dems that will switch. Then it's all about turnout and I don't think anybody's gonna have a bigger turnout than Paul supporters. If we come out at double the rate of the others, it's a WIN.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Setting the bar too high...

2nd place means we have excelled and are ahead of the curve. Media coverage from this point on is easier to obtain less 6 million dollar fund raising events.
3rd place means we have met expectations and are on the mark. The fight continues on much as it has. Ron Paul does not lose supporters so as long as the momentum continues to progress our positioning is healthy.
A 4th place finish in Iowa means we have fallen short and the only way to recover is a 1st place finish in New Hampshire. 4th place in unacceptable.

You're setting the bar too high. A 2nd place finish would be extraordinary, and would make Ron Paul the front-runner, as the candidate with all the momentum, the most money, and the most volunteers. It would stun the media, not just put us ahead of the curve.

Even a third place finish would be a major, major victory, because it would mean Ron Paul comes in ahead of John McCain, the media's anointed candidate to stop us in New Hampshire. A third place finish would make everyone realize that Fox News is ridiculously unfair and unbalanced, and poor at analyzing political races to boot.

Fourth place wouldn't be too bad at all, because it would mean we beat TWO of the presumed (by the media) top five candidates. It wouldn't get us a lot of press, but would probably sink both of them.

Fifth place is what the media is expecting, and what the polls predict, so no one should give up and go home if that's what happens. It would be disappointing, but not the end of the race. We have too much money and too many supporters to give up until February 6th, at the very earliest.

That being said, we've done a lot so far to get to this point, and my hat is off to all the volunteers in Iowa, and to everyone who has helped support the campaign throughout the year. Tomorrow we find out where we are, but it's just a benchmark, not a make or break event.

 

[AgentOrange]

I Really have no idea where you're getting your logic from.

Where do you get your logic that anything short of 1st place is winning? If Ron Paul doesn't have enough name recognition to win in New Hampshire, I don't see him winning any states. We are NOT going to get free press from the media for getting 2nd or 3rd. Even if Ron Paul wins Iowa, I can almost guarentee the headlines will be something like

"POLLS WERE WRONG, FRONTRUNNER COMES IN 3rd!"

"MCCAIN PLACES 4TH, LOSES TO HUCKABEE & ROMNEY!"

"GUILIANI THE BIG LOSER IN IOWA, CAN HE WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE?"

The media will fight Paul to the bitter end. Yes, he coudl recover from a 2nd or lower place finish in Iowa, but it will be hard. Paul needs first in Iowa, in NH, in almost every state.

 

[JMO]

I will be disappointed if Ron Paul doesn't get 15% or better. I will be surprised if he doesn't get double digits.

 

[Perry]

Where do you get your logic that anything short of 1st place is winning? If Ron Paul doesn't have enough name recognition to win in New Hampshire, I don't see him winning any states. We are NOT going to get free press from the media for getting 2nd or 3rd. Even if Ron Paul wins Iowa, I can almost guarentee the headlines will be something like

"POLLS WERE WRONG, FRONTRUNNER COMES IN 3rd!"

"MCCAIN PLACES 4TH, LOSES TO HUCKABEE & ROMNEY!"

"GUILIANI THE BIG LOSER IN IOWA, CAN HE WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE?"

The media will fight Paul to the bitter end. Yes, he coudl recover from a 2nd or lower place finish in Iowa, but it will be hard. Paul needs first in Iowa, in NH, in almost every state.

I've been talking about Iowa not NH.

 

[noiseordinance]

I almost fear Ron Paul getting second or higher. Imagine if he placed really high and then all of Super Tuesday's republican ads targeted Ron Paul. You guys know how easy it is to twist his words and spin him... It seems like one of those damned if you do and damned if you don't sorta things.

 

[phoenixrising]

I don't think the place will determine success, but the percentage of votes.

If Paul ends up outperforming the "established" polls, THAT will be the true victory.

i agree!! personally...i think everyone is in for 1 hell-of-a-shocker!!!!!! there r way 2 many first timers ...dem...lib...rep etc...for *anyone* to really calculate.

they think all the polling is rigged by us..what they have been unwilling to ACKNOWLEDGE.....is RP is bigger that anyone realizes!!

i'm anticipating 2nd. 1st is AWESOME...3rd --no problemo...cuz NH we ARE coming out on top!!!

a special note to a previous poster:
"...The Price of Liberty is Eternal vigilance!"

you are soooooooooo right-- & no matter the outcome--God help us if we EVER become lax again!!!!!!!!!

 

[thekeeper]

My point is this. If we finish 3rd or 4th in Iowa and NH, don't give up. Keep working in other states. In case you haven't noticed the dollar is having serious problems and this will continue. The stock market hasn't decided which way to go. It is bouncing up and down like a yo-yo. Gold is going up. Oil is right at $100 a barrel. Ron Paul's monetary message could out-trump his foriegn policy message on Super-Tuesday. If we are in it, anything can happen.

We are headed for a recession. The dollar is in serious trouble. A couple of months could

 

[rasheedwallace]

2nd in iowa is utter victory. it would translate to an easy 1st in NH.

 

[Flex]

Placing third in Iowa is a victory in my opinion. Nobody should be expecting any higher than that, but we can sure hope.

 

[Magsec]

I'll be happy for 4th, actually, as that meets the requirement to be in the ABC debate.

Pray hard, please.

 

[parocks]

Third is expected. Heck, even Keyes got double the amount the polls showed! Paul's going to get more than Keyes! Paul brings people from all parties!

Really? We're third in the polls in Iowa across the board?
I must've missed that. Fox is excluding RP from their debate based on an expected 3rd place finish in Iowa.

We are expected to finish 5th or 6th. If we finish there, we "met expectations". If we finish below Duncan Hunter, we fell below expectations, it was a disappointment and a loss.

If we meet expectations, we're "on track" we're pleased but not overjoyed with our success. We have money in the bank, and we're in it for the long haul.

4th, 3rd, 2nd or 1st is a massive success, a victory. We are jubilant about it. The campaign puts out the spin, and we hammer home that message.

There is no reason to raise expectations to 3rd. It doesn't benefit us. The MSM has not put us at the 3rd spot. We haven't benefitted from that MSM designated 3rd spot. Some people who like to vote for front runners might choose another candidate because the MSM has set expectations so low.

We want good stories after Iowa, and the best way to get a good story is to exceed expectations.

If we place 3rd, we want to be able to say it was a big victory for us, not that we merely "met expectations".

And I think that everyone on this board thinks that we will definitely exceed expectations.

 

[JohnDelano]

I've been hoping for 3rd. I expect either 3rd or 4th.

1st would set him up as a big target that the media and other candidates will go after. I think the attacks will be bad enough at 3rd.

I was talking to one of the campaign staff in Iowa, and he said he was hoping for 3rd too.

Remember also that this is really a straw poll. The caucus voters vote separately on delegates to the county convention that choose delegates to the state convention that choose the national delegates. (I hope I have that right.) Anyway, they aren't making a binding vote, nor are they choosing national convention delegates here. Hopefully Paul's people have enough folks volunteering to be delegates at the caucuses.

 

[PubliusPublicola]

2nd place means we have excelled and are ahead of the curve. Media coverage from this point on is easier to obtain less 6 million dollar fund raising events.
3rd place means we have met expectations and are on the mark. The fight continues on much as it has. Ron Paul does not lose supporters so as long as the momentum continues to progress our positioning is healthy.
A 4th place finish in Iowa means we have fallen short and the only way to recover is a 1st place finish in New Hampshire. 4th place in unacceptable. In my humble opinion if we fail to gain better traction than this after all the work we have done then the future of other primaries is bleak.
1st place in Iowa with 1st in New Hampshire means we need to begin focusing on doing battle with the democrats rather than the republicans.
Votes and %'s mean little or nothing. Placement is everything. It does not matter if you win or lose by an inch or a mile. Winning is winning and losing is losing.

There are two types of Ron Paul supporters.

Camp A. Those in it to win it

Camp B. Those in it to at least make sure his message changes america

For those in Camp A, you would indeed feel Paul has to win NH even if he places 3rd in Iowa. What matters to you is that Paul is winning it all, against the odds and against popular perceptions.

For those in Camp B, you would be thrilled with 3rd and probably be thrilled with 3rd again in NH. What matters to you is that Paul is BEATING folks like Giuliani, Mccain and Thompson... and thus his message is getting louder and clearer to more americans.

Respect both camps...

 

[Menthol Patch]

Regardless of what happens in Iowa we do NOT need to lose focus on NH!

 

[IRO-bot]

AAAAHHHHH!!!! This is so nerve racking. I am scared out of my mind. I remember us thinking we could place 3rd or 4th in Ames and we didn't. I am praying (which I never do) we get 3rd.