What a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish means for Ron Pauls campaign.

[jclay2]

I can imagine Hannity's post caucus coverage right now after a hypothetical first place finish.

Hannity: "Oh iowa really isn't representative of the entire country and ron paul got all of his supporters to go to the caucus.

 

[Michigan11]

I think if Ron takes third, in the mid to high teens, we are kicking ass, and Iowa will be a springboard to 2nd place in New Hampshire!

If we take 4th, nothing has changed, the top 3 will take all media coverage and spotlight, and be looked at more closely by voters in other states primaries.

 

[Cardinal Red]

I think your analysis on "what it means" is off by one.

If we pull 2nd in Iowa it means we've won and we start attacking Hillary and
Obama who is our biggest threat.

Pulling #3 means we exceeded expectations and we start to see a ton
of free media.

Pulling 4th means we're on a good track. MORE than what we expected 1 month ago.
MORE than what the medis expects right now. Our media attention may or may not go up.

5th place means we keep working as hard or harder than ever with the media
set against us. But we have STILL beaten Guliani.

I agree guys, this is 100% right-- Everyone can have their own opinion but the truth of this will be seen when you see media reactions to the results. Bottom line, if we are fourth, it means we will have beaten either Thompson or McCain, who have consistently been well ahead of us in average polling. We will have also beaten Giuliani. For the media perception, that is a success. Even fifth will not be peddled as a disaster by the media, though it will be somewhat of a disappointment and we will have to work harder to get media credibility going forward. Only sixth or seventh will be seen as a true failure and will be spun as such.

 

[jarmoore]

I can imagine Hannity's post caucus coverage right now after a hypothetical first place finish.

Hannity: "Oh iowa really isn't representative of the entire country and ron paul got all of his supporters to go to the caucus.

HAHA

 

[ronpaulitician]

I don't think the place will determine success, but the percentage of votes.

If Paul ends up outperforming the "established" polls, THAT will be the true victory.

 

[SPmachina033]

My opinion:

1st: A first place would actually be bad. No one would except it. They will say we stuffed ballot boxes, or something.
2nd: Second is probably the best place. It leaves room for improvement in NH and gives plenty of free publicity. Plus it will get the media hyped up in a good way.
3rd: This should be our target. It shows R.P. being a front runner, but doesn't allow the MSM to crucify us as easily.
4th: Not good, but still finishing ahead of 2 "national candidates" should get us into the ABC debate
5th: Finishing ahead of one front-runner, but any hope for later victory lies entirely on NH.
6th: Were the MSM told us we will be. A MAJOR problem.
7th or 8th: *Look for signs of voter fraud*

I don't think first place is ever a bad thing!

 

[SovereignMN]

If we aren't in the top 3 in Iowa then I don't see how we can win NH. if we can't win NH I don't see how we win any of the January states. If we don't win any of the January states then I don't see how we win any states on Super Tuesday.

 

[jeremycobert]

If we aren't in the top 3 in Iowa then I don't see how we can win NH. if we can't win NH I don't see how we win any of the January states. If we don't win any of the January states then I don't see how we win any states on Super Tuesday.

if huckabee wins iowa, romney will look like a fool (think steve forbes) and should be hurt in NH , Huckabee will go nowhere in NH. this leave 3rd place and 4th place finishers with more leverage in NH. NH is known for its libertarian support and the democrats wont come out for mccain this time as they have their own primaries to worry about. i think a 4th place finish for RP sets a stage for a RP vs Rudy showdown. which is winnable for RP.

 

[LinearChaos]

Well, since Dr. Paul is going to place FIRST, it doesn't really matter

 

[Paulitician]

1st Place: Amazing, Amazing! Media and everyone will be talking about it, but probably put a negative spin to it. Doubt it will happen.
2nd Place: Next best thing next to 1st place (obviously), with less hysteria/spin from media and everyone else. Not very [un]likely.
3rd Place: To be excepted from most of the campaign and a win. Media will take us slightly more seriously, as will everyone else.
4th Place: Beginning of the end of the Ron Paul Republican campaign. RP critics and detractors will be vindicated and media will go in 100% blackout mode.

 

[Molly1]

Somebody told me about matching funds. Can someone check this out? He told me if Ron Paul gets in double digits in either Iowa or NH, his 20 million is matched by the FEDS. He said this is why the big push to get mccain up in the polls because if he doesn't make the cutoff, he's out,he won't have enough money to cnotinue.

Check this out. It's important.

 

[squandertime]

http://www.infowars.com/articles/us/ron_paul_could_beat_giuliani_russert_predicts.htm

russert expects ron paul to come in 4th!

that is a good thing- because that assured me he will place 3rd!

i read somewhere that ron only went to iowa 19 times. that would mean iowa's grassroots totally kicks a$$ if he comes in 4th, or better! i am truly astounded by what iowa has done for ron paul

many thanks to them!!

><> robin

 

[patawa91]

talking heads

Does anyone else get tired of the talking heads being so ho hum about Ron? They always underestimate!! I heard one of them on CNN earlier saying that Ron "may" beat Rudy. No duh..He's going to blow Rudy out of the water.

 

[amonasro]

Somebody told me about matching funds. Can someone check this out? He told me if Ron Paul gets in double digits in either Iowa or NH, his 20 million is matched by the FEDS. He said this is why the big push to get mccain up in the polls because if he doesn't make the cutoff, he's out,he won't have enough money to cnotinue.

Check this out. It's important.

Hey Molly, we've been over this topic a lot. Matching funds would limit the way a candidate can spend their cash in each state. It's nice for candidates who are in debt and need to pay it off, like McCain, that's about it.

 

[thekeeper]

Iowa ---

1st place - Huckabee
2nd place - Romney
3rd place - Ron Paul
4th place - John McCain
5th place - Fred Thompson
6th place - Rudy Giuliani

New Hampshire

1st Place - McCain
2nd Place - Romney
3rd Place - Ron Paul
4th Place - Giuliani
5th Place - Huckabee
6th Place - Thompson

This is my prediction. Anything better would be grand. However, if Dr. Paul can finish 4th or better in Iowa, and 3rd or better in NH, he is in it to the finish line.

 

[AgentOrange]

Ummm people, we get NOTHING for a 2nd place fnish. We get NOTHING for beating the media polls. The only winner is the candidate who gets first place. If we get 2nd or 3rd, then we still have a chance in other states, but we aren't winners yet.

What in the world are the comments about going after Obama & Clinton if we get 2nd???? 2nd is STILL losing. Until after the GOP convention, Republican candidates are our competition, NOT democrat candidates.

As for predictions like this....

Iowa --- 1st place - Huckabee
New Hampshire 1st Place - McCain
This is my prediction. Anything better would be grand. However, if Dr. Paul can finish 4th or better in Iowa, and 3rd or better in NH, he is in it to the finish line.

If Ron Paul can't win a Libertarian state like NH, I think there is little chance he can win any state.

2nd & 3rd place are good for straw polls & "scientific" polls. We are beyond this. 1st place is the goal

 

[noiseordinance]

I don't know jack squat about politics but this is my wild guess: If Ron Paul finished at 2nd or 3rd nationally, I betcha running as an independant would be that much more appealing to him.

 

[thekeeper]

noiseordinance - that is my point!!!!

 

[thekeeper]

We will have to keep working no matter where Dr. Paul finishes. I am in it to the finish line.

 

[Perry]

Ummm people, we get NOTHING for a 2nd place fnish. We get NOTHING for beating the media polls. The only winner is the candidate who gets first place. If we get 2nd or 3rd, then we still have a chance in other states, but we aren't winners yet.

What in the world are the comments about going after Obama & Clinton if we get 2nd???? 2nd is STILL losing. Until after the GOP convention, Republican candidates are our competition, NOT democrat candidates.

As for predictions like this....



If Ron Paul can't win a Libertarian state like NH, I think there is little chance he can win any state.

2nd & 3rd place are good for straw polls & "scientific" polls. We are beyond this. 1st place is the goal

Ron Paul is the LEAST known republican candidate. I should think 2nd for a man that 75% of the nation has never heard of is quite impressive. The difference between Paul and the other candidates is that Pauls potential base has yet to be reached whereas the rest of the candidates are already, for the most part anyway, nationally known.