WHAS: Rand Paul winning by FIFTEEN EFFIN POINTS! Conway can't believe this sh**!

[sailingaway]

Someone is saying if you adjust for voting patterns of Dems/ independents/ gop it is a 6 point race (they don't pretend Conway is tied as Conway does.) But the pollster says it is a sign of the enthusiasm they just got a lot more people saying 'independent' than usual (they aren't asked how they are REGISTERED). Which would fit with being sick of the Dems, wouldn't it?

 

[Libertea Party]

52 to 44 in Louisville

 

[sailingaway]

Well than, relax and enjoy a good, long chuckle. It was funny then, now in hindsight it's a laugh riot:

hXXp://www.lisagraas.com/2010/02/johnson-overtakes-paul-in-polls.html

Isn't he running for something next year? I'm sure I saw that somewhere. Hope he gets a better pollster!

 

[sailingaway]

52 to 44 in Louisville

he was at 51% last time, and Lally was surprisingly up in yesterday's poll (though not as high as Rand). SUSA seems to be saying people are deserting the Dems and that it isn't so much they didn't poll the usual number of Dems as that people who used to be Dems don't identify themselves that way right now....

 

[Bergie Bergeron]

Isn't he running for something next year? I'm sure I saw that somewhere. Hope he gets a better pollster!

Secretary of State.

 

[skyorbit]

Conway pollster Pete Brodnitz of the Benenson Strategy Group also disputes SurveyUSA's methodology, saying the poll "overestimates the turnout of voters without a party registration, and underestimates Registered Democratic turnout. When adjusted to historical norms, their data shows the race is 6 point race."

Yep, because if one thing's obvious, this is a pretty run-of-the-mill election year. Nothing out of the ordinary really happening at all.

Move along, citizen.

With Rand 6 points up though right?

So we're still winning w/in the margin of error even then.

Tracy

 

[sailingaway]

With Rand 6 points up though right?

So we're still winning w/in the margin of error even then.

Tracy

LAST time he was ahead by 8. I sincerely doubt he went DOWN despite Jack's restricting his own contacts with voters to policemen who want more federal funding for drug prohibition.

and I don't know what the voter turn out was like in 1994, the last time the voter temperature was anything like this, either. And the Gallup poll gives a bigger edge to GOP than it has had EVER since they started measuring in 1942.

All along the Dems and everyone have been telling us that SUSA is 'the' poll that accurately predicts Kentucky, so we've been waiting for it.

 

[radiofriendly]

awesome

YouTube - Deltron 3030 - 3030

 

[eOs]

 

[Matt Collins]

Toady's the day that Jack accelerates his quick and painful downhill slide.

 

[Thargok]

take away from this poll: scaring seniors has worked to some degree for Conway.

Age: 65+
Rand Paul: 46%
Jack Conway: 49%


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=621b7962-d125-46d1-b276-45a6b0bc4833

Or the AARP is doing what it always does.

 

[libertybrewcity]

Or the AARP is doing what it always does.

Seniors are the ones that vote. They can make or break the election. Rand should be careful. We wonder why we have social security and medicare..old people.

 

[sailingaway]

Seniors are the ones that vote. They can make or break the election. Rand should be careful. We wonder why we have social security and medicare..old people.

He has to clearly say what he intends because the DNC and echo chamber are saying he wants to abolish everything and that is bunk.

 

[Libertea Party]

take away from this poll: scaring seniors has worked to some degree for Conway.

Age: 65+
Rand Paul: 46%
Jack Conway: 49%


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=621b7962-d125-46d1-b276-45a6b0bc4833

Crosstabs have a much larger margin of error than the entire survey. A good rule of thumb I've read is that they're double (in this case about 8).

So chances are that Paul is up more among more Seniors and down among Women and African Americans than the poll shows.

It doesn't mean the overall poll of 500 is wrong. It just means that at a sample size of seniors of 100 isn't statistically representative enough. To be accurate on a poll about seniors it would have to specifically sample 500 Seniors just like Survey USA sampled 500 likely voters to get a representative sample of likely voters.

 

[Eric21ND]

They polled nearly 1000 people for this poll, which is a huge sample size for polling, so it should be highly accurate.

 

[Libertea Party]

They polled nearly 1000 people for this poll, which is a huge sample size for polling, so it should be highly accurate.

Oh I agree about the whole poll but the crosstabs (65+, Women, Race etc) are unreliable.

The poll only accurately tells us one thing for sure: Paul is up 55 to 40.

The other sub-categories are statistically unreliable.

 

[itshappening]

no one has ever lost from such a lead

 

[itshappening]

Oh I agree about the whole poll but the crosstabs (65+, Women, Race etc) are unreliable.

The poll only accurately tells us one thing for sure: Paul is up 55 to 40.

The other sub-categories are statistically unreliable.

SUSA is the most accurate pollster in America, they're the standard bearer

 

[PatriotOne]

Now this is how I like to start my day. A cup of fresh ground coffee and a Randslide poll .

 

[itshappening]

pics of Conway next to Obama in the American crossroads ads have worked i think

the campaign should make sure they do that

voters in Kentucky seem to 'get' the fact that they're going to elect someone in opposition to Obama, someone who will have a national presence in opposing him rather than someone promising more pork.

Rand should continue the shots on Obama and not even mentioning Conway, it seems to be working