Weather for Tomorrow

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...central-northern-plains-monday-night/55036213

So I was looking at the above article and noticed this...

"Women [voters] tend to be affected by the cold more than men," Radich said, adding that the conditions expected for the Iowa caucuses could be detrimental to the female vote.

Candidates like Bernie Sanders who target young people may also feel an impact. Voters between the ages of 18 and 24 have higher turnout rates when the weather is sunny and warm."

We've all been assuming that snow will help us, but this articles states the opposite. I'm wondering whether this only applies to normal candidates who students could care less about and not candidates like Rand that the youth vote is super excited about. What do you think? Do you feel there is a difference? I could see kids saying "meh, it's snowing so I'm not going" if their choice of candidates are boring to them, but I personally think their reaction will be different since Rand is in the race.
 
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http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...central-northern-plains-monday-night/55036213

So I was looking at the above article and noticed this...



We've all been assuming that snow will help us, but this articles states the opposite. I'm wondering whether this only applies to normal candidates who students could care less about and not candidates like Rand that the youth vote is super excited about. What do you think? Do you feel there is a difference? I could see kids saying "meh, it's snowing so I'm not going" if their choice of candidates are boring to them, but I personally think their reaction will be different since Rand is in the race.

Rand is providing transportation and food. No class the next day and I think many colleges have caucus location on campus. Snow should not have a significant effect on student turnout.
 
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...central-northern-plains-monday-night/55036213

So I was looking at the above article and noticed this...



We've all been assuming that snow will help us, but this articles states the opposite. I'm wondering whether this only applies to normal candidates who students could care less about and not candidates like Rand that the youth vote is super excited about. What do you think? Do you feel there is a difference? I could see kids saying "meh, it's snowing so I'm not going" if their choice of candidates are boring to them, but I personally think their reaction will be different since Rand is in the race.

That's referencing the history of all youth voters in general. I wouldn't consider Rand supporters to be the "norm" in that classification. They are much more passionate and willing to go the extra mile. I'm hoping the snow keeps the old people home.
 
The snow just might be a good thing. Any time you are the underdog in a game involving chance such as Risk or Mario Party, you want to create randomness; as the underdog, it's better to roll a dice for a random result than it is to have things played out as expected. A player that is in the lead wants the future path to be a predictable continuation of what has happened so far. As the underdog, you want more variables that add randomness; a variable that can either help or hurt you...is better than no variable at all and a probable loss by a little. More RANDomness please.

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I love how the ONLY place there's a blizzard is Iowa. It's as if God is saying "Dude, all these Republicans are so bad except for one. Time to add some RANDomness."
 
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The radar returns in eastern Nebraska and Kansas are interesting, as accumulating precipitation there wasn't modeled. I don't have time to check for ground obs. It'd be a great sign if those radar returns were reaching the ground. Regardless, it looks like weather deteriorates for western and southern Iowa around 9pm. Further north and east should get the caucuses done without weather issues, although I am hopeful that the *threat* of an impending blizzard keeps the old folks and soft support at home.
 
Looks like snow will be starting. Soon

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The radar returns in eastern Nebraska and Kansas are interesting, as accumulating precipitation there wasn't modeled. I don't have time to check for ground obs. It'd be a great sign if those radar returns were reaching the ground. Regardless, it looks like weather deteriorates for western and southern Iowa around 9pm. Further north and east should get the caucuses done without weather issues, although I am hopeful that the *threat* of an impending blizzard keeps the old folks and soft support at home.


Just starting to cross the western Iowa border and this is good, because this was Ron's weakest part of Iowa, his best part of Iowa was the eastern half. The snow is starting sooner and with more intensity, but 7pm look for the entire western half of Iowa to be snowing -- this is going to help
 
Just starting to cross the western Iowa border and this is good, because this was Ron's weakest part of Iowa, his best part of Iowa was the eastern half. The snow is starting sooner and with more intensity, but 7pm look for the entire western half of Iowa to be snowing -- this is going to help

This is good. I know many say this is Iowa they're used to it but so many people are last second people any more and if you're faced with going to the store to stock up or going to the caucus I'd guess people are going to choose going to the store. You have to think this has to help Rand more so than hurt.
 
By midnight, there should be a couple inches fallen over the SW half of the state. This should be good.
 
Ground observations snow has just started along the I 680 corridor from north of Omaha to almost Des Moines
 
I'm doing the PFH and a LOT of people are not going due to weather, especially among older voters...
 
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