We can win Maine

[Havax]

So far in 2012:

Romney:
- IA -1% less votes from 2008 (30k) to 2012 (29k)
- NH +29% more votes from 2008 (75k) to 2012 (97k)
- SC +41% more votes from 2008 (68k) to 2012 (167k)

Paul:
- IA +220% more votes from 2008 (11k) to 2012 (26k)
- NH +323% more votes from 2008 (18k) to 2012 (56k)
- SC +483% more votes from 2008 (16k) to 2012 (78k)

Now look at Maine in 2008:

Romney 52% (2,844)
McCain 22% (1,189)
Paul 18% (1,011)
Huckabee 6% (320)

Taking the two most important states to compare Maine too, Iowa because it's a caucus format, and New Hampshire, because of its proximity to Maine, we can get an idea of what could happen in Maine.

Ron doubled his support in Iowa, and tripled his support in New Hampshire. Romney decreased a little in Iowa, and increased a tad in New Hampshire. Everyone knows Romney lacks passion from his supporters which is essential in a caucus format. If we can have a similar +220% in Maine like we did in Iowa we would be around 2,224 votes. Assuming Romney stays the same or has a modest increase from 2008, he will be at 2,700 votes in best case scenario or 3,500 in worst case scenario. Factoring in Ron's popularity in neighboring New Hampshire (where our most passionate are probably in Maine canvassing), as well as he being the only one actively campaigning there, we should be able to get the additional 1,200 votes to get to around 3,500 votes. I assume Santorum/Gingrich will combine to be the 2008 McCain vote there and stay around the same.

In short we are looking for a 346% increase (~2,500 more) in number of votes from 2008 in order to win Maine. If Romney stays around the same amount of support as last time, we won't even need that much. At worst, I think we can take a very close 2nd. I think phoning from home for Maine is really important right now. I know there has to be 3,500 Paul supporters in Maine. If we simply get them to vote we should be able to win this.

 

[tsai3904]

We need Facebook ads targeting probable Ron Paul supporters linking to the list of caucus locations and times:

http://www.mainegop.com/2012/01/maine-g-o-p-2012-caucus-information/

We also need to stress that new voters and Unenrolled voters (not registered with any party) can show up and vote for Ron Paul.

 

[James Madison]

Caucus states like Maine, ND, SD, Montana, Idaho, and Washington should be easy pickings this time around.

 

[PaleoPaul]

We should aim for Nevada too.

 

[PauliticsPolitics]

We need Facebook ads targeting probable Ron Paul supporters linking to the list of caucus locations and times:

http://www.mainegop.com/2012/01/maine-g-o-p-2012-caucus-information/

We also need to stress that new voters and Unenrolled voters (not registered with any party) can show up and vote for Ron Paul.

Make sure to check with the Maine Ron Paul official people to make sure that a facebook campaign would not interfere with the stealth strategy or any other conflict of method.

 

[Havax]

Bump for Maine. We should be spending 40% of our resources on Nevada and 60% on Maine right now. We can rebuilt momentum with a Maine win, without it, our hopes dwindle.

 

[harikaried]

Now look at Maine in 2008:

Romney 52% (2,844)
McCain 22% (1,189)
Paul 18% (1,011)
Huckabee 6% (320)

Just a reminder that these are state delegate votes -- the last round of voting before selecting the actual delegates to the national level.

From the structure of the caucus last time, there was no straw poll at the precinct level, and people just voted for delegates.

 

[mello]

Nevada will be difficult. Mitt won last time because there are so many mormons in that state. I think we will also have a better chance in Louisiana.

 

[tbone717]

Nevada will be difficult. Mitt won last time because there are so many mormons in that state. I think we will also have a better chance in Louisiana.

The Mormon population in NV is 6.47% which makes it 4th in the nation behind UT, ID and WY. The largest concentration are found in Lincoln (~33%), Lincoln (~20%) and White Pine (~20%) counties. The remainder of the counties have a Mormon population that is 15% of less. Clark and Washoe counties are the most populated counties in the state and are on the lower end of Mormon population percentages. Paul can win the popular vote in the state by dominating in those two counties, though it is likely Romney will win delegates in the CD's with the highest Mormon population if we assume that he captures the majority of the Mormon vote.

 

[sailingaway]

Just a reminder that these are state delegate votes -- the last round of voting before selecting the actual delegates to the national level.

From the structure of the caucus last time, there was no straw poll at the precinct level, and people just voted for delegates.

This. People see that and think Ron should get many times that with a rally, not remembering that is the next to last stage of the winnowing process.

 

[sailingaway]

Nevada will be difficult. Mitt won last time because there are so many mormons in that state. I think we will also have a better chance in Louisiana.

Which is why they moved it so late, so it wouldn't be a spring board and would be more likely to take its flavor from earlier contests.

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

voting by religion =( makes me sad.

if a buddhist was on the ticket ^^;; if he wasnt a terrible guy, id vote for him lol.

 

[mello]

I guess we could counter the mormon contingent by advertising a lot to people working in the service industry. For example, Ron Paul has repeatedly introduced legislation to prevent the government from taxing your tips. Or we could organize pub crawls or leave a flyer with your tip when you eat at local restaurants. Stuff like that.

 

[bullterrier0]

Just a reminder that these are state delegate votes -- the last round of voting before selecting the actual delegates to the national level.

From the structure of the caucus last time, there was no straw poll at the precinct level, and people just voted for delegates.

This is not accurate, as the numbers you cited are the results from the non-binding "Presidential Preference Poll," essentially a straw vote. Just over 5,000 votes in the entire state for 2008. No delegates are awarded from this vote, it's done at the state convention the weekend of May 5-6.

Saturday 5 May - Sunday 6 May 2012: District Caucuses and State Convention. The National Convention delegates are elected during the 2nd day of the State Convention.

* 6 district delegates are elected by caucus participants from each of Maine's 2 Congressional districts. These delegates will attend the Republican National Convention officially unbound to any Presidential candidate.
o CD 1: 3
o CD 2: 3
* 15 delegates are elected by the Maine State Convention as a whole. These delegates will attend the Republican National Convention officially unbound.
* 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Maine's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unbound delegates by virtue of their position.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ME-R#0129

 

[presence]

This is the GRASSROOTS TIPPING POINT for RP 2012 MOMENTUM!

Could Ron Paul Still Win Maine?
February 12, 2012, 8:44 pm
By NATE SILVER

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/could-ron-paul-still-win-maine/

"Ron Paul’s campaign is claiming that it could still win the presidential preference poll in the Maine caucus because of a county that postponed its vote and will hold its caucus next Saturday, Feb. 18."

"A more likely scenario, perhaps, is that Mr. Paul ['s VOLUNTEER GRASSROOTS MACHINE] would work to turn out his supporters while the other campaigns would not. "

"If Mr. Paul were somehow to secure the 194-vote margin, that would create a messy scenario for the Maine G.O.P."

"A handful of Maine towns outside of Washington County have also not yet held caucuses. In those cases, however, the caucuses were scheduled for after Feb. 11 all along. Only 45 votes were cast in these towns in 2008,"

"Washington County might theoretically have some untapped potential for Mr. Paul. It is rural and relatively poor"

--------------------------------------



YOU HAVE FIVE DAYS!

NATIONAL RP GRASSROOTS TURN YOUR ATTENTION TO WASHINGTON CO MAINE!

Washington county, on the eastern most tip of the continental US, a rural county where folks were used to toughing it through bitter winters with little money, became the turning point in the defence of the Constitution, when after having been denied the LIBERTY to go out and vote because "the party" was concerned for their SAFETY in a snowstorm, voters stood up to be heard...


Tell the tale!

dirigo,

presence

 

[parocks]

Paypal Address for Washington County, Maine boots on the ground
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...r-Washington-County-Maine-boots-on-the-ground

*********************

Washington County Maine needs MONEY. This person (Valerie Page) has been working on the ground in Maine. I suggested we sent money to someone who can spend it.
Here's what I got back from her on Facebook.

*******************

I set up a paypal James. My email address is [email protected]. I would like to get a crew in place to 1: start calling the district, I will call Eric and get a list from him and 2: to head north for the caucus. Maybe we will have enough donations to cram a few of us into a hotel room, who knows?
Thank you for your help in all of this. We will be heard!!

*********************

Valerie Page is taking an organizational role, for those who are sending money, those who are planning on going to Wash Co., etc - see her email there.

By the way - she's trying to register here at Ron Paul Forums and is unable to.

 

[Aratus]

good luck Maine!

 

[digitaldean]

Now the guy is saying Romeny won by 15 in one area and not Paul by 15. It seems the new numbers will have Romeny winning by over 200 now.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73015.html

 

[RonPaul101.com]

Now the guy is saying Romeny won by 15 in one area and not Paul by 15. It seems the new numbers will have Romeny winning by over 200 now.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73015.html

I think that was done to make it easier to sell this as "random mistakes". You make one token mistake against Romney as to throw off the real plan. So if 15 out of 16 contests that were wrong hurt Paul, make sure you talk mostly about the 16th one were Romney was missing some votes.