Watch the debt rise over the next few months.

Madison320 · Oct 18, 2017

Zippyjuan said:
$600 billion in two months?

Well they borrowed 300 billion the first day after the debt suspension so it's possible.

AZJoe · Nov 8, 2017

angelatc · Nov 8, 2017

Zippyjuan said:
"Budgeted" deficit may also be different from the actual deficit.

Why are there parentheses around budgeted?

In other news, your mileage may vary from the estimations provided by the manufacturer.

Zippyjuan · Nov 8, 2017

angelatc said:
Why are there parentheses around budgeted?

In other news, your mileage may vary from the estimations provided by the manufacturer.

Requested ("budgeted") spending is not necessarily the same as actual spending. Actual tax revenues may also be higher or lower than anticipated.

angelatc · Nov 8, 2017

Zippyjuan said:
Requested ("budgeted") spending is not necessarily the same as actual spending. Actual tax revenues may also be higher or lower than anticipated.

Doesn't explain why you're putting quotes around budget. By definition budget isn't spending.

A budget isn't requested spending after it passes, either. Assuming we're using it as a noun, it's approved and planned spending combined with approved and planned methods of raising revenue.

Golly a liberal who doesn't understand economic terms, so he uses "quotes" inappropriately.

NorthCarolinaLiberty · Nov 8, 2017

Why would anybody listen to Zip? He has 10 red bars. His major was political science and I'm not even sure he graduated.

Madison320 · Nov 28, 2017

It's slowed down a bit. We're up to 20,557,279,072,690. The debt ceiling suspension ends Dec 8.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current

I'm confused by all the articles I read 3 months ago when they re-suspended the debt ceiling from Sep 8 to Dec 8.

For example: "That means Congress must approve a new debt ceiling and create a new budget by December 8. That will create a situation like the 2012 fiscal cliff crisis."

I don't understand why they can't just go back to emergency measures like they normally do and stretch it out another 4-6 months. The articles make it sound like we start defaulting on stuff on Dec 8.

Zippyjuan · Nov 28, 2017

Madison320 said:
It's slowed down a bit. We're up to 20,557,279,072,690. The debt ceiling suspension ends Dec 8.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current

I'm confused by all the articles I read 3 months ago when they re-suspended the debt ceiling from Sep 8 to Dec 8.

For example: "That means Congress must approve a new debt ceiling and create a new budget by December 8. That will create a situation like the 2012 fiscal cliff crisis."

I don't understand why they can't just go back to emergency measures like they normally do and stretch it out another 4-6 months. The articles make it sound like we start defaulting on stuff on Dec 8.

There basically ins't a debt ceiling in place until December 8th. What the ceiling will be on December 8th I am not sure but yes, once the ceiling is back they can try to use "emergency measures" to try to extend things.

devil21 · Nov 28, 2017

Madison320 said:
It's slowed down a bit. We're up to 20,557,279,072,690. The debt ceiling suspension ends Dec 8.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current

I'm confused by all the articles I read 3 months ago when they re-suspended the debt ceiling from Sep 8 to Dec 8.

For example: "That means Congress must approve a new debt ceiling and create a new budget by December 8. That will create a situation like the 2012 fiscal cliff crisis."

I don't understand why they can't just go back to emergency measures like they normally do and stretch it out another 4-6 months. The articles make it sound like we start defaulting on stuff on Dec 8.

Seems to me that they've been running under a variety of "emergency measures" (aka accounting tricks) for the last two and a half years. The debt number has been frozen or suspended in some form about 75% of that time period. At this point what difference does it make? It's all good until it's not. I do think much of the general drama is about distracting and killing time until December when events have been planned to get very interesting.

Madison320 · Dec 6, 2017

Madison320 said:
It's slowed down a bit. We're up to 20,557,279,072,690. The debt ceiling suspension ends Dec 8.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current

I'm confused by all the articles I read 3 months ago when they re-suspended the debt ceiling from Sep 8 to Dec 8.

For example: "That means Congress must approve a new debt ceiling and create a new budget by December 8. That will create a situation like the 2012 fiscal cliff crisis."

I don't understand why they can't just go back to emergency measures like they normally do and stretch it out another 4-6 months. The articles make it sound like we start defaulting on stuff on Dec 8.

Dang. How can I know more than 99% of the financial reporters that cover this stuff? I was right, they don't go right into default on Dec 8. They can use extraordinary measures again.

"While markets expect the debt ceiling to be reinstated this week, they anticipate that the Treasury can avoid a breach of the borrowing cap by using extraordinary measures until as late as April."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/debt-limit-tracker-what-to-watch-in-markets-as-suspension-ends

Zippyjuan · Dec 6, 2017

Madison320 said:
Another 75 billion. Can we hit 21 trillion by the next debt suspension in Dec?

20,422,972,363,114.29

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current

According to Treasury Direct (with two days to go), current debt stands at $20,540,360,356,857.05

Don't think we are going to make $21 trillion.

Zippyjuan · Dec 6, 2017

Madison320 said:
Dang. How can I know more than 99% of the financial reporters that cover this stuff? I was right, they don't go right into default on Dec 8. They can use extraordinary measures again.

"While markets expect the debt ceiling to be reinstated this week, they anticipate that the Treasury can avoid a breach of the borrowing cap by using extraordinary measures until as late as April."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/debt-limit-tracker-what-to-watch-in-markets-as-suspension-ends

Just as I said.

Madison320 · Dec 6, 2017

Zippyjuan said:
According to Treasury Direct (with two days to go), current debt stands at $20,540,360,356,857.05

Don't think we are going to make $21 trillion.

Nope. But we're going to catch up next year.

devil21 · Dec 6, 2017

My bet: Dec 22 shutdown, Dec 24 midnight tax bill votes, all kinds of changes to everything slipped in that weren't in either chamber's bill. Probably some big distraction at the same time so that eyes are not on Congress.

Madison320 · Feb 12, 2018

20,669,079,408,408 just jumped 177 billion. No more debt ceilings to slow us down for awhile. We should be cruising past 21 trillion in the next couple weeks.

oyarde · Feb 12, 2018

Ya , looks like 21 T this year ?

r3volution 3.0 · Feb 12, 2018

oyarde said:
Ya , looks like 21 T this year ?

Maybe 22T

Zippyjuan · Feb 12, 2018

r3volution 3.0 said:
Maybe 22T

That would require a deficit of about $1.3 trillion for this year. $21.5 is more likely.

r3volution 3.0 · Feb 12, 2018

Zippyjuan said:
That would require a deficit of about $1.3 trillion for this year. $21.5 is more likely.

Absent a recession, that's probably about right, but I expect we'll be in recession by Q4.

Madison320 · Feb 13, 2018

r3volution 3.0 said:
Absent a recession, that's probably about right, but I expect we'll be in recession by Q4.

Remember that the amount the public debt goes up is almost double the deficit. We'll hit 22 trillion this year, easily.

Watch the debt rise over the next few months.

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