Warning Fools! Silver Will Fall by 66%

[phonetic lee]

There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value.

... Kool Aid drinkers ... FOOLS

It's always nice to know that if I buy something like IBM or Walmart and it goes down, I simply misjudged or made a mistake. But if I'm wrong about silver, I'm an imbecile who needs to be yelled at.

As the author notes, silver is a store of value rather than an investment. But I think the complaint about volatility is selective.

As an investment, I own shares of silver producing companies. There's nothing controversial about owning stocks, and if I can identify underpricing of silver (obviously a big "if"), then the producers are likely underpriced as well.

At the moment, prices are suffering an end-of-month smash, offering enhanced bottom-hunting opportunities

 

[TheCount]

Haven't the silver miners fared even worse than silver itself?

 

[phonetic lee]

Yes, miners have severely underperformed the precious metals.

For example, Newmont Mining (NEM) is currently below its 1989 high. Pan American Silver (PAAS) is below its 1997 high. (Dividends included.)

GDX (gold miners ETF) is down nearly 50% since its 2006 inception. SIL (silver miners ETF) is down nearly 40% during its 5-year existence. (Silver is down about 10% for the 5-year period, based on the SLV price.)

In part, I think the miners have been legitimately punished for poor corporate management, but current pricing appears to reflect an overdose of pessimism.

 

[oyarde]

Sure they did--when this was posted Silver was at like $40/Oz and foolish Kool Aid drinkers held on since advisors told them to sit tight=FOOLS

Well , I sold alot and bought alot since then .Today , I doubled my money on some nickels I had been sitting on for awhile.

 

[Dforkus]

Yes, miners have severely underperformed the precious metals.


For example, Newmont Mining (NEM) is currently below its 1989 high. Pan American Silver (PAAS) is below its 1997 high. (Dividends included.)

GDX (gold miners ETF) is down nearly 50% since its 2006 inception. SIL (silver miners ETF) is down nearly 40% during its 5-year existence. (Silver is down about 10% for the 5-year period, based on the SLV price.)

In part, I think the miners have been legitimately punished for poor corporate management, but current pricing appears to reflect an overdose of pessimism.

Miners are just terrible investments... It seems like they combine the negative aspects of commodity AND equity investments with neither of the upsides...
For metals, it seems like you are better off just sticky with the metal..

For energy it has always, at least to me, seemed just the opposite. You are better off sticking with large, stable, dividend paying equities

 

[phonetic lee]

Miners are just terrible investments...

Yes, they have been, but there must be some price level low enough to be attractive. Miners are difficult to value because they're so dependent on prices of metals (which themselves are difficult to value), but by my count, we already have silver trading below cost of production, and gold in the vicinity of cost.

It's hard for me to envision sustainable price declines from these levels unless mining costs fall sharply.

I think the miners have shown more enthusiasm for paying dividends, but it's difficult when they're in a crisis situation.

 

[edward222]

Haven't the silver miners fared even worse than silver itself?

Silver always have people,
people doesnt always have silver.

Reality...

 

[devil21]

PMs haven't moved more than a few bucks a day for many months. Very stable.

 

[NACBA]

BACK DA TRUCK UP

 

[roho76]

BACK DA TRUCK UP

Not yet! I'm looking at the $13.50 price range. If it breaks that support then we could be on our way to the sub $10 dollar range but I doubt it will go that far.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Where can we buy an oz of silver for $14.76?

 

[oyarde]

Where can we buy an oz of silver for $14.76?

I dunno , but I got lucky last Wed and got 15 Mercury dimes and a Walking Liberty Half for $21.25 , or , about an ounce and a third.

 

[oyarde]

I saw some 2014 silver eagles for $21 , they sold too , I did not buy any....

 

[Lord Xar]

nvm..

 

[Schifference]

http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_panam.php

Can purchase for as little as $15.57 an ounce.

 

[qh4dotcom]

Silver is now less than $14

 

[Brian4Liberty]

I dunno , but I got lucky last Wed and got 15 Mercury dimes and a Walking Liberty Half for $21.25 , or , about an ounce and a third.

Silver is now less than $14

OP thread prediction was prophetic. Seems like the bottom was hit, and the only way to go is up from here...

 

[angelatc]

OP thread prediction was prophetic. Seems like the bottom was hit, and the only way to go is up from here...

I think that's a buy price for me as well. I remember being excited to see it at $15.

 

[Zippyjuan]

OP thread prediction was prophetic. Seems like the bottom was hit, and the only way to go is up from here...

April 2011 (start of thread) Silver was about $45 an ounce. $17 currently.

 

[LibForestPaul]

April 2011 (start of thread) Silver was about $45 an ounce. $17 currently.

What caused the massive increase in jul10 and jan 11?