Warning Fools! Silver Will Fall by 66%

[oyarde]

Wages falling, metals falling, oil falling, gas falling, stocks falling... is it deflation time?

Ammo , Nat Gas , diesel , pork bellies , beef look fairly steady .

 

[Dforkus]

Ammo , Nat Gas , diesel , pork bellies , beef look fairly steady .

Natural Gas is under 4$ a therm.. which is dirt cheap, corn is still fairly cheap, diesel is falling, just like gasoline, although winter supply chain realities mean it doesn't fall as fast as gasoline, it is still falling.. It's through the 3 dollar barrier here in the Atlanta area.

Natural Gas, gasoline, diesel, corn: these core products, in some combination are involved in the production and/or consumption of nearly every good or service sold in the economy.

I know some people like to hold on to the idea that there is some conspiracy of secret, runaway inflation and dollar devaluation in the economy like Linus believes in the great pumpkin, but it's just not there...

Maybe someday... sure, predicting the future is a difficult business, and I'm not very good at it..

But I am good (reasonably) at looking at economic data dispassionately, without warping it to fit some internal version of how things are, or to fit some previous prediction of a future that I made that was obviously wrong...

 

[NACBA]

Based on this, I should have jumped on OIL at $100/bbl

 

[oyarde]

Natural Gas is under 4$ a therm.. which is dirt cheap, corn is still fairly cheap, diesel is falling, just like gasoline, although winter supply chain realities mean it doesn't fall as fast as gasoline, it is still falling.. It's through the 3 dollar barrier here in the Atlanta area.

Natural Gas, gasoline, diesel, corn: these core products, in some combination are involved in the production and/or consumption of nearly every good or service sold in the economy.

I know some people like to hold on to the idea that there is some conspiracy of secret, runaway inflation and dollar devaluation in the economy like Linus believes in the great pumpkin, but it's just not there...

Maybe someday... sure, predicting the future is a difficult business, and I'm not very good at it..

But I am good (reasonably) at looking at economic data dispassionately, without warping it to fit some internal version of how things are, or to fit some previous prediction of a future that I made that was obviously wrong...

I could go for some deflation , but I am not hopeful in energy and groceries to see things other than where things are now .

 

[NACBA]

I think it really is time to buy now.

 

[NACBA]

Price of Silver in 2015: Why It Could Bounce Higher

In 2014, silver once again suffered a substantial loss, following up a 36% crash in prices during 2013 with more double-digit percentage declines. Yet even though investors have had to live through a crushing precious-metals market environment during the past two years, many investors now believe that the price of silver in 2015 could finally bounce higher and give bullion owners some long-awaited relief. Let's look more closely at what's moving silver prices, and how those factors are likely to affect silver prices in 2015 and beyond.

Can the price of silver in 2015 really rise?

Silver offers a unique mix of attributes of both precious and industrial metals. On one hand, silver has traditionally moved closely with gold, given the two metals' historical use in monetary systems around the world. Yet, to a much greater extent than gold, silver has many industrial uses, and industrial demand gives silver a more concrete connection to the health of the global economy than gold.

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ilver-in-2015-why-it-could-bounce-higher.aspx

 

[Dogsoldier]

Well what is the lowest silver could go?

Could it ever go to 3$ an ounce?

It would seem to me to be a good time to buy but I'm no expert.

 

[NACBA]

Well what is the lowest silver could go?

Could it ever go to 3$ an ounce?

It would seem to me to be a good time to buy but I'm no expert.

It was $7.00 or so in 2005 and $3.50 in 1993 when Clinton took office

So yes it could but will it?

 

[Zippyjuan]

Well what is the lowest silver could go?

Could it ever go to 3$ an ounce?

It would seem to me to be a good time to buy but I'm no expert.

That's OK. Experts don't know either- otherwise they would all be billionaires. They only way to know a high or low price is by looking in the past and see where the peak occured. Nobody knows what it will be in the future. Some think its recent price moves look like a bubble which still needs to deflate more lie we saw with housing prices. (yes, I am one but do not claim any "expertise").

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

 

[Dogsoldier]

Well in that case its not a good time to buy...lol

Even if its gets down to 3.50 it will still be selling at 10 or 15$.

 

[oyarde]

Well in that case its not a good time to buy...lol

Even if its gets down to 3.50 it will still be selling at 10 or 15$.

It will not go to $3 , but if it did , you could buy none for that .That is my guess ,look at what gold really goes for now ....

 

[Dforkus]

I think the commodity sell off has a little more to go; 10-20% on silver 10-15% gold is my wag...

I have a small hobby stock trading acount aside from my 401ks; When the dividends come in next February, I may considered plowing the cash into some silver eagles. That would be the first time I bought since I got some on the front side of the recent bubble at around 22

I think oil is going to bottom at 50, and natural gas is going to bottom around 3.00, the big move down today in natural gas (which took it damn near 3) might have been a classic capitulation moment there actually.. My advice for oil and gas is unchanged, don't play the commodity yourself, that's a billionare's game. Play the commodity through best of breed corps and MLPs.

 

[Peter4Paul2016]

Now is an excellent time to purchase more silver (and gold). As soon as our "recovering" economy shows any indication of weakness... the house of cards will come falling and precious metals will rise again. Will it be a Peter Schiff style collapse? I don't know... But weakness in the stock market in 2015 will boost our confidence in metals.

Gold & Silver Charts

I love corrections and price dips - if prices continued upwards beyond 2011 prices, I wouldn't be able to buy more. Let the scared investors jump in and out of favor with metals. I'm buying at a discount and I know I'm good for the long term.

 

[NACBA]

Maybe this will Help Silver

Gold jumped more than 1.5 percent on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank announced it was abandoning its ceiling against the euro.

The Swiss franc soared almost 30 percent on the move, which caught global markets by surprise.

Elsewhere, Asian equities rose and the dollar regained its footing, dulling demand for the safe-haven metal.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102338987

 

[NACBA]

Silver over $20 is Insanity

 

[NACBA]

Silver is so confounding

 

[Bossobass]

Dunno why people don't look at the obvious when interested in silver against the USD:

In order for silver to fall to the thread-predicted $16, the USDX would have to rise to around 100.

Of course, there are circumstances that exaggerate the relationship, but how many USD it takes to buy an ounce of silver starts with the USDX. Will it rise to 100? That's the Q. Not in my humble opinion, but that's the fun of it, eh?

Eventually, the USD will be worth nothing. Silver, OTOH, will never be worth nothing.

Bosso

Bump and quote for reference^^

Here's a chart of the USDX laid over a composite chart of Silver from my post to last month or so ago:

Crudely done, yes, but the trend is still obvious (or should be). As I said then, I wasn't betting the $ would ever hit 100 again, but, as I also said then, that's the fun of it.

The whole ballgame is the when of it. For now, I'm gladly trading my USD for silver, USDX notwithstanding.

 

[NACBA]

Will this shit ever bounce back? Damnit APMEX --quit showing your ads here telling me that THIS is the perfect time to buy--you said that at $30/oz.

 

[edward222]

No one can really predict if the silver will really go down by %66.
But if that will really happen,
many will surely buy silver,
and many will keep their silver.

 

[NACBA]

No one can really predict if the silver will really go down by %66.
But if that will really happen,
many will surely buy silver,
and many will keep their silver.

Sure they did--when this was posted Silver was at like $40/Oz and foolish Kool Aid drinkers held on since advisors told them to sit tight=FOOLS