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A big hat tip to internet contributor RG, whose message was relayed by the Midas Report. Consider verbatim his message, in which he gleefully proclaims to be calling all Rocketeers of the Happy Silver Ship. The goodfellow RG wrote,
"The latest Commitment of Traders Report for silver is now screaming out at full volume BUY BUY BUY. In fact, the Commercial Short-Long Ratio that I have already bored you with at great length in recent correspondence is now down at a multi-year super extreme of 1.79. Below is an up-to-date chart of the COT picture. In summary there have only been four other weeks in this whole bull cycle where the ratio has dropped below 1.80, four weeks. The first two weeks of these was the 28th August 2007 and the following week of the 4th September 2007. The second tranche was the 21st October 2008 and the following week 28th October 2008. If you study below both the chart of silver over that period and also the HUI gold mining index, you can see how these extreme lows below 1.80 in the ratio coincided on both occasions very markedly with a bottom in both the silver price and the mining index. On each occasion this proved to be a multi-year opportunity to take positions in both the metal and the precious metal mining stocks. Each time the price of silver rose by some 60% to 90% within a six month period! And the HUI index rose some 90% to 160%. Folks, there is no such thing as a risk-free trade. There is no such thing as a free lunch. And there is no such thing as a one-way bet. However, there are certain times in an investment cycle when an outstanding opportunity presents itself and advantage should be taken. The evidence above shows very clearly the historic correlation between an extreme low below 1.80 on the Commercial Short-Long Ratio and a multi-month bottoming in the price of both silver and the precious metal mining stocks. I have been trading the precious metal sector since 2003 and I would consider this to be one of perhaps four of the most suitable buying opportunities within the last eight years!"
The man RG makes a compelling argument, without providing the background factors that push the gold & silver prices upward. He simply points out the COT signal and the resulting performance after two significant lows were registered in precious metals prices. Very convincing inded. Thanks to RG also for the fine chart.
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