Warning Fools! Silver Will Fall by 66%

Okay not to sound smut, but there is a lot of uneducated talk going on here. I recommend using tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com to learn about what is going on.

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I would guess 36 at lowest, they are increasing margins effective tomorrow close and monday close. However, mining stocks may be bottoming and ready for a takeoff. Quarter 1 earnings reports are coming out and the results are stellar (record prices for metals = record earnings). For reference, the price of silver now is what it was a little over 2 weeks ago. The price of gold/silver now is higher than the avg price the miners will be showing record profits at...

Scott
http://thehardrightedge.com

Also, try:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
 
#39.05 and falling--hope y'all sold in the 40s and took some profits

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$37.99 here we come!
 
bobbyw24 said:
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$37.99 here we come!
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It´s the same move since 4 days, like clockworks: Hongkong closes, silver takes a dive. When the Crimex opens at 8 am ET there will be a short rally. Then at about 8:30 the trend will turn until 12 am ET (London pm price fixing!), then again a short rallly and finally the next major downturn. We had this for 3 1/2 days now. The closing price for the day will be visible at about 3 pm ET:
silver.gif
 
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Uh oh. $37.54 and falling. Should I buy or wait for $33/oz? I am confused. People here said that The Fed's Printing Press would assure that Silver will hold steady and that only a fool uses FRNs.

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Silver Investors Dump Futures as Comex Boosts Speculator Trading Costs 84%

The biggest slump for silver since 1983 may not be over as the Comex exchange in New York makes it 84 percent more expensive for speculators to trade the metal, triggering an exit by investors.

The minimum amount of cash that must be deposited when borrowing from brokers to trade silver futures will rise to $21,600 per contract after May 9, CME Group Ltd., Comex’s owner, said yesterday. That’s up from $11,745 two weeks ago. Open interest in futures has tumbled about 15 percent since the exchange began raising margin requirements on April 25.

Prices may drop another 12 percent to $34 an ounce by the end of next week, according to the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of six analysts. Silver has more than doubled in the past year as record-low U.S. borrowing costs and a slumping dollar prompted investors to buy precious metals as alternative assets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...omex-boosts-speculator-trading-costs-84-.html
 
Silver set for worst week in 20 years, gold holds

* Silver set for biggest weekly slide since at least 1989

* iShares Silver Trust holdings drop, most since early 2008


By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - Silver prices were on track for their largest weekly fall in over 20 years on Thursday, as investors pulled their money out of the metal after its rise last week to 31-year highs.

A fourth rise in margin requirements for U.S. silver futures added to the pressure on the market, while global holdings of silver in exchange-traded funds staged their biggest one-day decline this year.

http://www.sharenet.co.za/news/Silv...s_gold_holds/3281c52f35bc962c0f4d1e15649c8a64
 
bobbyw24 said:
Uh oh. $37.54 and falling. Should I buy or wait for $33/oz? I am confused. People here said that The Fed's Printing Press would assure that Silver will hold steady and that only a fool uses FRNs.

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Silver was also going full retard when priced in real money gold. What concerns me now is that the last two days also gold is going down. Now it already retreated over 5% from it's all time high.
 
silver is shaking off the weak bulls. That is what a market does. The dow crashed in 1987 and is barely discernable on a 20 year chart of the dow bull market.
 
bobbyw24 said:
... Should I buy or wait for $33/oz? I am confused. People here said that The Fed's Printing Press would assure that Silver will hold steady and that only a fool uses FRNs. ...
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The CME and brokerage margin hikes over the last week or so are unprecendented. The COMEX must really be in deep shit for them to do this. In any event, you can wait if you want to, but I would keep an eye on the inventory at whatever shop or dealer you prefer. I went by my local coin shop yesterday and their inventory was so bare I was shocked. While I was in the store, every customer who came in was looking to buy silver. The physical market is very tight and I don't see that changing dramatically.
 
Silver a Warning Sign for Everyone?

The price action in silver since late January has been dramatic to say the least. The derivatives marketplace CME Group raising margin requirements has been seen by many as the reason for the 20 percent correction in prices since the precious metal hit a record over $49 an ounce on April 28th.

Regular readers will remember that the currency team at Bank of New York Mellon [BK 28.75 -0.19 (-0.66%) ] have been drawing a number of comparisons between 2011 and 2008. The key comparison for Simon Derrick has been the commodities market which in 2008 acted as a lead indictor for stocks and the financial crisis in the autumn of that year.

“One of the most significant signals to emerge in early 2008 was a marked reversal in the price of a number of basic foodstuffs well before oil prices peaked in July 2008,” Derrick wrote in a research note on Thursday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42910646
 
Erik Sprott tells King World News he has more silver than ever

Here's a blog that Eric King sent me last night that also ended up as a GATA release shortly thereafter, so I'm just going to steal Chris Powell's most excellent preamble...and then post the link.

There's been some controversy over Canadian fund manager Eric Sprott's sale of some shares of his company's spectacularly successful physical silver fund, PSLV. In an interview yesterday with Eric King of King World News, Sprott remarked that the sale was small, that the proceeds were entirely reinvested in silver-related assets, that he continues to expect silver's price to return to a 16-1 ratio to gold's price, and that he now owns more silver than ever.

Here you have it from the man himself...and the link to this must listen audio interview is

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/3_Eric_Sprott.html
 
Are most of you just watching Silver? I'm seeing steep drops on just about every commodity, and just about every stock. Silver is falling only a few percentage points lower than other metals, and that isn't bad considering the huge run up it had.
 
How Far Does Silver Fall?

By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD

With silver dropping roughly 19% in the last three days, a correction is clearly under way. Let’s take a quick look at how far it might drop.

I’ve updated the “corrections” chart, which shows all major pullbacks in silver since our bull market began in 2001. The data measure any clearly visible drop in price greater than 10%, regardless of time length. As you’ll see, some drops occurred over short periods of time, while others were prolonged.

MajorCorrectionsinSilverintheCurrentBullMarket.png


http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/eliminating-need-organ-transplants-coming-soon
 
bobbyw24 said:
The silver bubble took on a new dimension this month, with the price of the metal rising nearly 30%. Last Monday, share volume in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV ) was five times its daily average in the first quarter. While many investors may cite capital preservation as a reason to buy silver, an analysis of the historical data suggests that those who pay nearly $50 an ounce will eventually suffer massive losses.

Gold's real return: aero
Like gold, silver has lived up to its billing as a store of value -- if you measure your holding period on a geological timescale. Using data from precious-metal dealer Kitco, I constructed a series of inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1800, according to which the metal generated a historical average return of 0.4% per annum. (Much of that small premium over inflation is due to price appreciation over the past 10 months. If we use the price of silver in mid-2010, the average annual return falls to 0.1%).

There is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value? But silver's price volatility disqualifies it even as a stable store of value. For proof, just take a look at 10-year trailing real returns since 1810 (based on average annual prices):


http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/04/29/warning-silver-will-fall-by-66.aspx
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Guess you had a little editing failure there.

Anyhow, both sides argue somewhat convincingly. We are in unprecedented times, so who knows how this will all shake out? The graph is interesting, but given the remarkable position in which we now stand, I am not quite sure that it can be trusted as a predictor. On the one hand, we do have every indication of a bubble, given what is beginning to appear as an asymptotic rise in price. On the other hand, we have the churning out of dizzying volumes of money by the fed, which should be triggering significant inflation. Inflation, while currently high, is not as high as I would have expected. What, exactly, is going on with that?

Several really weird, counterintuitive things are happening. Which way the shoe will fall... who can tell? I cannot.
 
Gideon said:
The FRN is fr*ckin doomed!
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Raising the question: what will replace it? The answer to that is the one over which we should be on pins and needles. When a new currency comes, "they" are not going to be kind. We are going to be collectively sheared until we bleed. Maybe even literally.

Get foods and medicines stocked. Don't go crazy, but have a year's worth anyway. Worst that happens: you eventually go through the stock as you would otherwise consume and the world doesn't come to an end.
 
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