Voter:Doner ratio 10:1, Implication

[AlexMerced]

if we have a 10:1 donor ratio across the board, where does that put us in NH?

 

[goRPaul]

Good question. I wish I had the data to try to answer. I'd also like to see the same stat for other campaigns.

 

[Killaspike]

bump

I want to know too

 

[Mental Dribble]

where did you get 10:1?

 

[Killaspike]

~1000 people donated from Iowa

~10000 people voted in Iowa

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

if that donor to voter ratio holds true across other states, this doesnt bid well for the candidacy. Its great that RP supporters are more motivated than other candidates supporters, but in the end, we each only get one vote.

Its sad to say that without some larger mass media exposure we are facing a serious uphill climb. The supporter base has been growing at a rate of about 25% a month. With super tuesday looming a month out, Im not sure we have enough time.

No matter how this ends, we NEED to find a way to expand our mass media engines by abouot a thousandfold.

 

[AlexMerced]

trust me, california is our saving grace, and if we can ramp things up in NY too

 

[AlexMerced]

also don't forget mccain,huckabee, and thompson are near broke they can't stay in this much longer if donations don't pick up so we just need them to keep giuliani and romney down

 

[jake]

Iowa had 673 donors
NH has had 686 donors

(~ half the population) which means Paul's support should be roughly double: IE ~20,000 votes.

 

[RonPaulFTFW]

isn't NY all about ghouliani?

 

[bulloncoins]

~1000 people donated from Iowa

~10000 people voted in Iowa

if that donor to voter ratio holds true across other states, this doesnt bid well for the candidacy. Its great that RP supporters are more motivated than other candidates supporters, but in the end, we each only get one vote.

Its sad to say that without some larger mass media exposure we are facing a serious uphill climb. The supporter base has been growing at a rate of about 25% a month. With super tuesday looming a month out, Im not sure we have enough time.

No matter how this ends, we NEED to find a way to expand our mass media engines by abouot a thousandfold.

Doesn't that say we got 10 voters for every donor in the state? New Hampshire is a very strong donor state......How can that be bad?

 

[homah]

Iowa had 673 donors
NH has had 686 donors

(~ half the population) which means Paul's support should be roughly double: IE ~20,000 votes.

Why would he get twice as many votes from the same number of donors? His percentage might double, perhaps, assuming the percentage of people who turnout is about the same as in Iowa, but the raw number of voters should be about the same.

 

[Paul10]

....

 

[Rintrah54]

I might be reading this wrong.......or my math could be off but this is my take.


According to the donor map the donor per million ratio in New Hampshire is roughly twice that of Iowa. Assuming the votes per donor ratio stays the same, then wouldnt the voting outcome be roughly twice what it was in Iowa?

 

[Paulio]

I don't know about total donor numbers.

But thanks to ronpaulgraphs.com I know about per capita donor number. In NH this number is 521.7, in IA it's 225.7. So 2.3 times per capita more supporters in NH than in IA. 2.3 x 10% = 23% support.

It's not much of a analysis but at least there are some real numbers to work with.

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/donors.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

 

[pmbug]

All this speculation is not taking into account that Iowa's caucus and NH's primary are two different beasts. Iowa's system is more exclusive - requiring people to be at a specific place at a specific time. NH's all day system allows more people to participate. Apples and oranges.

 

[Paulio]

I would predict that in New Hampshire Ron Paul should get at least 3rd position with 20% votes or better. Given the numbers out there (polls, donor ratio, Iowa result) that's what I got after analysing US politics for about 15 minutes. If you fall for it, then it's your own fault ;-)

I'm not from US, never been to NH or IA.

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

The voter:donor figures we've been seeing for the Democrats in 2004 (Kucinich with the lowest at 32) are for donations over $200, which means the ratio for Paul will be higher than 10:1.

 

[Abyss]

NYC is all about Rudy...

 

[AlexMerced]

we can win NYC we beat him in the straw poll, and their losing faith since he's looking like a loser in the medias eyes. We made an indifferent show, so expectations have been lowered meaning a good showing NH will have even more impact.