Virginia: A great place to get delegates or maybe not?

[Aratus]

lets try to win counties and districts and delegates!

 

[fisharmor]

If you look at the numbers for 2008:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VA

Huckabee got 41% of the vote last time and this year those people will mostly go to Newt/Santorum I think but correct me if I am wrong. All we need is over 50.1% and I think we can do it.

Um... look, people.
The highest population center is Northern Virginia.
It's one of the wealthiest areas in the entire country.
It got that way because of the military-industrial complex.
A Ron Paul administration is going to put a lot of NoVA residents out of work.
Without the BS contractor jobs that pay $150k a year to do nothing but leech resources, average salaries in the area go down, and then home values follow.
Put simply, an RP win means this place is going to turn into Detroit.

The next biggest population center is probably the tidewater area.
An area where the Navy has a really large footprint.

The in-between parts of the state are pretty fundamentalist boo-the-golden-rule type of territory.

I really hope Paul does well. There's always hope that Santorum & Newt supporters will vote for him, and also hope that disaffected democrats will come over (it's an open primary).
But emotionally I'm pretty prepared for him to get crushed like an insect underfoot.

 

[CaptUSA]

Maybe seeing Mitt win both states will drive the Newt/Santorum people to vote our way. I can not see people who back Newt/Santorum thinking its a good idea to give Mitt more delegates.

I understand the logic, but this is not how most people vote. Most people do not vote strategically (As Santorum has just found out). Most people will take a look at the names on the ballot and decide who they like more. (Even more people will vote for which ever candidate they have a more favorable impression of. And since the media is really good at giving people impressions...)

Now, it could be that people are so unfavorable toward Romney that they'll cast a protest vote against him, but I wouldn't count on it. We have to spend our time driving up Paul's favorables.