UNSTOPPABLE: Ron Paul now in 3rd place on Intrade, ahead of Fred Thompson

[Zydeco]

For the first time, Ron Paul has jumped into third place on Intrade to get the Republican nomination, ahead of Fred Thompson. Paul is at 8.9% chance to get the nomination, while Thompson has plummeted from the 20s in recent week's to today's low of 8.1%.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Giuliani 40.0% (as if)
Romney 29.3% (yeah, sure)
Paul 8.9%
Thompson 8.1%
McCain 7.1%
Huckabee 4.5%

 

[James R]

The provided link did not mention Paul for some reason.

 

[ItsTime]

damn I should have bought at 4! But they did not have the cash option I wanted.

 

[Zydeco]

The provided link did not mention Paul for some reason.

Click "home" and then "2008 US Election."

For some reason there's no permalink (that I can find) to the relevant page.

 

[Zydeco]

Next one to reel in: Mitt!

 

[ItsTime]

heres the link to the GOP:

http://www.intrade.com/partners.jsp?ZID=4775&AID=1&CID=2&page=trade&selConID=253435

 

[JAHOGS]

Just about an hour ago is what only at +.5 and now it is at +1.9. Hopefully it will stay above 8.9%

 

[Zydeco]

Whether it holds or not it's a new high for RP, he hadn't been at 8 before this. And he hadn't been ahead of the tanking Fred Thompson.

What has happened to the top tier? There are only two of them left! And one of them can't win a single straw poll, while the other would be in debt $9 mil if he hadn't written himself $17 mil in checks.

Opportunity knocks!

 

[bp2519]

I got in at 6.7 and I'm in it for the long haul.

 

[James R]

Click "home" and then "2008 US Election."

For some reason there's no permalink (that I can find) to the relevant page.

That worked... and I did see the approx. 9% score. Thats really good news.

 

[shepburn]

Whether it holds or not it's a new high for RP, he hadn't been at 8 before this. And he hadn't been ahead of the tanking Fred Thompson.

What has happened to the top tier? There are only two of them left! And one of them can't win a single straw poll, while the other would be in debt $9 mil if he hadn't written himself $17 mil in checks.

Opportunity knocks!

excellent analysis

 

[Zydeco]

Update: Ron Paul now at a new high, 9.0% chance to get the Republican nomination!

 

[bc2208]

I am in at a cost avg of 2.8 :-D

 

[jake]

everyone should throw down 10 bucks on Paul once you've maxed out your contributions to the campaign at $2300

 

[Nash]

Looks like he's catchin on I'm tellin ya.

 

[RP4ME]

hes a 7 now?

 

[brumans]

What is intrade and what do you guys mean when you say "got in" at a certain number?
How does it work?

 

[Zarxrax]

Yea, how does this work? Is it just gambling? Is it legal?

 

[murrayrothbard]

Yea, how does this work? Is it just gambling? Is it legal?

It's a traded futures contract. The contract expires once the event takes place (eg. Republican convention). Each contract pays out $100 @ expiration if the event in question takes place (e.g RP wins Repub nom) or $0 if it doesn't. So if the RP-to-win-nomination contract is currently trading @ $8 it means that according to intrade market participants RP has an 8% chance to win.

 

[MadEmperor]

Why isn't Ron Paul on Fox New's Political Poll area??
They use InTrade, and he isn't listed....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

However, the other people combined equal 89%.... wonder where the other 10% is!