Bruno
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Why would you would say that after he had an awesome debate night?
Tweet from PPP: New SC numbers due out tonight
- Thread starter RonPaulFever
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Why would you would say that after he had an awesome debate night?
At this point, we can only pity the fine people of South Carolina who have been misled into a vile mindset that they embrace Newtl'roy and Froth as being the embodiment of good, while rejecting RP as being bad. The fruits of their malignant thought are born by their continued support for the likes of Lindsey Graham.
Let's get this South Carolina thing behind us and move along. I'm in it for Ron Paul's involvement at the Convention.
Let's get this South Carolina thing behind us and move along. I'm in it for Ron Paul's involvement at the Convention.
BrittanySligar
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As much as i don't want to, you have to. The polls have been accurate.
See second sentence for my explanation of why I would say the first sentence.
thoughtomator
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After the events of the past 48 hours I suspect the ex-wife thing was a deliberate hoax to get Gingrich's numbers up.
RonRules
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January 20, 2012
Newt expands South Carolina lead
Newt Gingrich heads into South Carolina election day as the clear front runner in the state: he's now polling at 37% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Rick Santorum, and 14% for Ron Paul.
Gingrich's lead has actually increased in the wake of his ex-wife's controversial interview with ABC. Although one night poll results should always be interpreted with caution, he led the final night of the field period by a 40-26 margin. One thing that continues to work to his advantage are the debates. 60% of primary voters report having watched the one last night, and Gingrich has a 46-23 lead with those folks.
The other reason his ex-wife's interview isn't causing him much trouble is that there's a lot of skepticism about it. Only 31% of voters say they think her accusations are true while 35% think they are false and 34% are unsure. 51% of voters say that they have 'no concerns' about what came out in the interview.
The skepticism of Republican voters toward the media is helping Gingrich as well. Just 14% of likely voters have a generally favorable opinion of the media, while 77% view it negatively. Gingrich's attacks on the media have clearly played well with the party base.
Gingrich is leading with pretty much every key segment of the Republican electorate. He's up 41-21 on Romney and Santorum with Evangelicals, he has a 52-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Partiers, he leads Santorum 44-21 with 'very conservative' voters with Romney at 20%, and he's up 39-26 with men.
In the final week of the campaign Gingrich rose from 24% to 37% in PPP's polling while Romney basically stayed in place, going from 29% to 28%. Romney saw a 15 point decline in his net favorability in the closing stretch from +24 (57/33) to just +9 (51/42). Gingrich saw a modest increase in his numbers over the final week from +14 (51/37) to +17 (54/37).
Usually when we poll in the closing days before an election and find someone ahead by 9 points we'll say with a pretty high degree of confidence that person's going to win. I'm not comfortable saying that about South Carolina. A primary election with a lot of new news in the closing days for voters to absorb is fertile ground for a final result that's at odd with the polls. Mark Blumenthal's piece today for Huffington Post about 'expecting the unexpected' tomorrow is well worth a read. Gingrich will probably win tomorrow- but there's a higher than normal chance for a surprise given everything that's gone down in the last 48 hours.
Newt expands South Carolina lead
Newt Gingrich heads into South Carolina election day as the clear front runner in the state: he's now polling at 37% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Rick Santorum, and 14% for Ron Paul.
Gingrich's lead has actually increased in the wake of his ex-wife's controversial interview with ABC. Although one night poll results should always be interpreted with caution, he led the final night of the field period by a 40-26 margin. One thing that continues to work to his advantage are the debates. 60% of primary voters report having watched the one last night, and Gingrich has a 46-23 lead with those folks.
The other reason his ex-wife's interview isn't causing him much trouble is that there's a lot of skepticism about it. Only 31% of voters say they think her accusations are true while 35% think they are false and 34% are unsure. 51% of voters say that they have 'no concerns' about what came out in the interview.
The skepticism of Republican voters toward the media is helping Gingrich as well. Just 14% of likely voters have a generally favorable opinion of the media, while 77% view it negatively. Gingrich's attacks on the media have clearly played well with the party base.
Gingrich is leading with pretty much every key segment of the Republican electorate. He's up 41-21 on Romney and Santorum with Evangelicals, he has a 52-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Partiers, he leads Santorum 44-21 with 'very conservative' voters with Romney at 20%, and he's up 39-26 with men.
In the final week of the campaign Gingrich rose from 24% to 37% in PPP's polling while Romney basically stayed in place, going from 29% to 28%. Romney saw a 15 point decline in his net favorability in the closing stretch from +24 (57/33) to just +9 (51/42). Gingrich saw a modest increase in his numbers over the final week from +14 (51/37) to +17 (54/37).
Usually when we poll in the closing days before an election and find someone ahead by 9 points we'll say with a pretty high degree of confidence that person's going to win. I'm not comfortable saying that about South Carolina. A primary election with a lot of new news in the closing days for voters to absorb is fertile ground for a final result that's at odd with the polls. Mark Blumenthal's piece today for Huffington Post about 'expecting the unexpected' tomorrow is well worth a read. Gingrich will probably win tomorrow- but there's a higher than normal chance for a surprise given everything that's gone down in the last 48 hours.
tuggy24g
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Things can always change. Most polls only poll a small amount of people. Also this is open to everyone to vote so who knows the final outcome. We have to hope for at least third place so maybe Santorum will think about giving it up. I do not think it will happen after what he said yesterday, but you never know.
Tod
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No way. Paul's debate performance was great. Media is who we are battling.
Ron Paul not Campaigning for four days right after New Hampshire has hurt......we are reaping the results......very poor Campaign decision to loss all of the Momentum that was built after finishing 2nd in the Live Free or Die State.
Pray we beat Santorum or it will be a big setback!!!!
Pray we beat Santorum or it will be a big setback!!!!
RonRules
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It can still all change: (See first crosstab)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1201023.pdf
Committed to Candidate or Might Change
Your Mind?
Strongly committed
to that candidate
Might end up supporting
someone else
2012 GOP Pres
Primary
Newt Gingrich
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
39% 40% 35%
15% 14% 18%
29% 31% 23%
17% 15% 24%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1201023.pdf
Committed to Candidate or Might Change
Your Mind?
Strongly committed
to that candidate
Might end up supporting
someone else
2012 GOP Pres
Primary
Newt Gingrich
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
39% 40% 35%
15% 14% 18%
29% 31% 23%
17% 15% 24%
fkkkkkkk this, i AM going to get my hopes up!!! i expect ron to do really really well tomorrow, no poll, no msm, no killjoys are going to bring me down!!! i know what i saw in that debate, i saw how the audience was looking at ron that night, they were in awe.... they made cnn they forced cnn they forced the msm to get him involved in that debate, and i think that is a direct sentiment among the south carolina people!! i dont trust ANY polls at all at this point, who knows whos paying them off, i know im knew to this political stuff and voting, but again i know what i saw in that debate and ron WILL do good tomorrow!
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Don't fret too much about this. I will be happy with 16% of the vote in SC and winning one district. The real litmus test for us is Nevada, Minnesota and Maine. We'll really know where we stand by then.
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