Trump Will Lose in November - The Facts

[Zippyjuan]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/bar...ism-which-issue-most-important-voters-n495091

Foreign policy is pretty far down.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx

 

[Unknown.User]

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[oyarde]

Let's say 90%.

Given the electoral map , I guess a minimum of 60 percent .

 

[oyarde]

Do people forget how many states the dem machine has locked up ?

 

[Dianne]

He will lose in November, because the Globalist Republicrats are throwing every ounce of support, along with every billion in their war chest, behind Ms. Clinton. Can you imagine a world without Globalist paid for orgies, child molestation, the best drugs, the best booze. They will protect their "chosen one" status as long as possible. They were once called the "law makers", who are actually the "law breakers". The peeps are catching on. I hope all of them rot in hell where they belong.

 

[Unknown.User]

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[Zippyjuan]

Both the Pauls and Trump have said that Iraq is not just a foreign policy issue, it is an economic issue. See the videos below:


Ron Paul was one of the first to emphasize that the Iraq war IS an economic issue. Trump has made the message popular with the general public. When they say the economy, Trump will tie it back to Hillary's support for the war just like he did to Jeb Bush in the that video.

Grasping at straws now. How much time are the candidates spending discussing Iraq- in ads, in speeches, in the debates? If it is so important to being elected?

 

[Unknown.User]

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[enhanced_deficit]

Let's say 90%.

Ok, let's reveisit this thread in Dec.

I predict that Hillary will not be able to beat Trump, with 55% certainity.

Iraq war is old news.

Not at all.

13 years later, Iraq war still a major political issue
WCPO-1 hour ago
Little did anyone know that America's battle in Iraq was actually just ... estimated that 405,000 Iraqi citizens were directly killed in the war, along ...

Was Hillary Clinton Bribed for Her Iraq War Vote?
Mar 15, 2016

Hillary: ‘What certainly influenced me’ to support Iraq war was Bush’s billions aid to NYC



Hillary couldn't even beat a "community organizer" like Obama , she will have a much tougher battle against Trumpster hurricane.

Iraq war and its affects won't be "old news" for another 40-100 years probably, right now it is current news. US is still in Iraq and continues to pay a very heavy price for what was the biggest blunder in US history. Obama/Trump elections and that comes with them would not have been possible without Iraqi Freedom.

 

[Danke]

She'll be in prison before the elections.

 

[Unknown.User]

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[r3volution 3.0]

Do people forget how many states the dem machine has locked up ?

Yup.

I'd expect Trump to do about the same as Romney (i.e. total wipeout, loses all the major battleground states), and maybe worse in the SW.

Trump's net favorability among Hispanics is -65 (lol).

That's substantially worse than Romney, who himself did very poorly among Hispanics.

 

[oyarde]

She'll be in prison before the elections.

Then amerika gets Bernie ?

 

[Peace&Freedom]

Yup.

I'd expect Trump to do about the same as Romney (i.e. total wipeout, loses all the major battleground states), and maybe worse in the SW.

Trump's net favorability among Hispanics is -65 (lol).

That's substantially worse than Romney, who himself did very poorly among Hispanics.

Romney didn't lose because of Hispanics, he lost because he did poorly in energizing anybody else to vote for him. Over 60% of them are concentrated in states like CA, TX and NY, that are already locked in the Democratic or Republican column. So most of their vote doesn't change the overall outcome, as it only matters in about 4-5 competitive states. The 'Hillary vs X' polls have been all over the map in recent months, with some months showing her losing to most of all the GOP contenders, other months winning against all of them.

All we know for a fact, regarding Trump vs. Hillary, is that 1) the few weeks Trump directly engaged the Clintons in January, the latter ran for cover, like scolded dogs. 2) We also know, to date, that everybody who has gone negative on Trump has dropped in the polls, and stayed dropped. Hillary will be no exception. If it's Sanders, even worse---I don't expect a socialist to win a single battleground state.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Romney didn't lose because of Hispanics

I didn't say he lost because of Hispanics.

so their vote doesn't change the overall outcome, it only matters in about 4-5 competitive states.

Yes, like in the SW, hence I cited that as a region where Trump might do even worse than Romney.

The Hillary vs X polls have been all over the map in recent months, with some months showing her losing to most of all the GOP contenders, other months winning against all of them.

She consistently beats Trump.

As you can see below, she's beaten Trump in 22 of 25 polls counted by RCP since last November, often by double digits.

If it's Sanders, even worse---I don't expect a socialist to win a single battleground state.

Not that it matters (Hillary will be the nominee), but Sanders beats Trump by an even larger margin in most cases.

He beats Trump in every purple state I mentioned, except FL, where Trump has a 0.8% lead at the moment.

 

[fr33]

I can't predict it. Most of the rules of politics and elections have been thrown out the window this time, otherwise Trump wouldn't be leading. Many of these polls are from likely voters and Trump is bringing in people who don't usually vote.

 

[hells_unicorn]

Do people forget how many states the dem machine has locked up ?

I wouldn't put too much stock in the notion of too many of those states being locked up by the Dem. machine, particularly ones where they've been losing governor's races or have had reasonably close ones. This election is in heavily uncharted waters, particularly because of how rabidly anti-Clinton a significant chunk of Bernie Sanders' voting base has become. These people either not showing up or some of them even crossing over to Trump (I've heard some of them talk this way), combined with a depressed turn out (which seems likely given how many states Hillary has lost to Sanders and how low turnout has been in Democratic primaries), could tip a significant chunk of the electoral map towards Trump, particularly in areas that are considered safe for the Dems.

I'm not saying that Trump will definitely recreate what happened in 1980, but there is a potential for it to happen, particularly if Clinton's legal problems continue to get worse as it will further depress turnout.

P.S. - Just to make sure that everyone is clear on this, I am not supporting Trump, or any of the others, I'm simply taking a guess at how this will turn out based on the state of John Q Public.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

She consistently beats Trump.

As you can see below, she's beaten Trump in 22 of 25 polls counted by RCP since last November, often by double digits.

Not that it matters (Hillary will be the nominee), but Sanders beats Trump by an even larger margin in most cases.

He beats Trump in every purple state I mentioned, except FL, where Trump has a 0.8% lead at the moment.

And Romney and most of the GOP 2012 field consistently led Obama in the pre-election campaign months in the last cycle, example:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/wa...an-cain-rick-perry-mitt-romney-all-beat-obama

Until the candidates face off head to head, and accordingly take a beating from each other, pre-campaign early polls are unreliable. Hillary will likely not stand up to the scandal barrage Trump will put her through, and Sander's socialism will not stand up to the campaign Trump can raise against it in the purple states.

 

[oyarde]

Romney didn't lose because of Hispanics, he lost because he did poorly in energizing anybody else to vote for him. Over 60% of them are concentrated in states like CA, TX and NY, that are already locked in the Democratic or Republican column. So most of their vote doesn't change the overall outcome, as it only matters in about 4-5 competitive states. The 'Hillary vs X' polls have been all over the map in recent months, with some months showing her losing to most of all the GOP contenders, other months winning against all of them.

All we know for a fact, regarding Trump vs. Hillary, is that 1) the few weeks Trump directly engaged the Clintons in January, the latter ran for cover, like scolded dogs. 2) We also know, to date, that everybody who has gone negative on Trump has dropped in the polls, and stayed dropped. Hillary will be no exception. If it's Sanders, even worse---I don't expect a socialist to win a single battleground state.

Depends on what you consider battleground states . A states like MN , WI have a huge socialist following .

 

[r3volution 3.0]

And Romney and most of the GOP 2012 field consistently led Obama in the pre-election campaign months in the last cycle, example:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/wa...an-cain-rick-perry-mitt-romney-all-beat-obama

Until the candidates face off head to head, and accordingly take a beating from each other, pre-campaign early polls are unreliable.

Sure, polls can change. But the fact is that the polls now, and for the last several months, have Trump getting crushed across the board.

Hillary will likely not stand up to the scandal barrage Trump will put her through

...Trump has skeletons too.

and Sander's socialism will not stand up to the campaign Trump can raise against it in the purple states.

The guy who's been promoting socialized medicine for decades, and continues to do so even now, is going to attack Sander's socialism?

...don't think so.

It's much the same problem Romney had with Romneycare.