Trump Is Doubling Down On A Losing Strategy

[nikcers]

I fail to grasp the idea that people who don't like Hillary and don't like Trump are going to vote for one or the other in spite. That's what the media keeps telling me though so I am trying to understand it. I think its just much more likely that the people who don't like Trump or Hillary will either not vote at all or vote for a third party. If that is the case then all of the polls showing that the race is close are way off base. If that's the case then the person who wins will be the one who unites the party the most.

 

[AuH20]

the demographics were very different at there events. Apples and oranges. The never hillary crowd is massive and motivated.

The exclusively Never Trump or NeverHillary factions won't decide the election. Trump has the advantage of a far more motivated fanbase that would crawl through a path of hot coals for Trump. However, Hillary does have the notorious 'drag you out of the alley' ground game where they literally throw you into a van and drop you off at the polling station with a ten dollar bill in your pocket.

 

[TheCount]

Here's the problem I have with Nate Silver. His volatile model seems to be hocus pocus if DJT can jump to the high 50 percentile as the victor and then crash down to below 20 percent in less than two weeks. Trump did nothing catastrophic during that time to incur a drastic change like that. The Khan story was overblown because the driving issue is the lackluster economy. No one is overly concerned about some fabricated Gold Star nonsense from a Muslim immigration lawyer. I'm not buying it's significance.

The model didn't do that. Silver doesn't type Khan into the model and numbers change. It's the poll results that changed.

 

[TheCount]

Trump has the advantage of a far more motivated fanbase that would crawl through a path of hot coals for Trump.

 

[dannno]

Ron Paul got hella large crowds, too. Not all of them showed up at the polls.

I was at a Ron Paul event at a college that had 10+ thowow, they turned people away. Crowd was very enthused - but also almost everyone was under 28.

 

[CaptUSA]

Likely not for much longer since you could see the flip in strategy tonight. His NC speech was carried live in prime-time and it was very different from past campaign events where he talks off the cuff about those whom have wronged him. He rather hit on all the right economic talking points that will appeal to voters across the political spectrum. read what Kellyanne put on the teleprompter for him. He was really on his game and probably one of the best speeches of his campaign.

FTFY.

Please tell me you're not this naïve.

 

[Schifference]

I guess that's a valid point. But the question I pose to Hillary supporters. If they can't show up at her rallies, why does anyone think that some will wait in long lines from 45 minutes to an hour in some busy districts? It's not going to happen IMHO. The only real reliable voting demographic she has, will be urban blacks and single women. Beyond that, mileage may vary. However, early voting does not help Trump due to the potential for voter fraud.

Maybe dedicating time and effort to attend a rally for someone you already support is considered a waste. Showing up on election day and voting is the real deal.

 

[kahless]

FTFY.

Please tell me you're not this naïve.

From the little coverage I saw this morning the media seems to concur with my observation of last nights speech. You are so irrational in your hatred of Trump you are unable to make objective observations and stoop to insults.

 

[CaptUSA]

From the little coverage I saw this morning the media seems to concur with my observation of last nights speech. You are so irrational in your hatred of Trump you are unable to make objective observations and stoop to insults.

Um... he read it straight from the teleprompter. Words written after Kellyanne's role was expanded. You really think he just miraculously had a change in tone?? They're going to want him to stick to the teleprompter from here on out.

"Naïve" is not meant to be an insult; it's meant to make you question yourself. Damn, you guys are so easily conned. You just believe what you want to believe.

And it that the same media that is "out to get him"?!! Geez, make up your mind.

 

[kahless]

Um... he read it straight from the teleprompter. Words written after Kellyanne's role was expanded. You really think he just miraculously had a change in tone?? They're going to want him to stick to the teleprompter from here on out.

"Naïve" is not meant to be an insult; it's meant to make you question yourself. Damn, you guys are so easily conned. You just believe what you want to believe.

And it that the same media that is "out to get him"?!! Geez, make up your mind.

It does not matter that he was reading off a teleprompter or who wrote it. The observation was that it is a change in strategy that resulted in one of the best speeches of his campaign. The media is taking notice of it today. Polls will shoot up since that is how fickle people and the polls are.

I disagreed wholeheartedly with Obama's policies ,thought he was full of shit and was angry people would buy into his speeches. But that was not to say when you observed his speeches you knew he was saying all the right things - in platitudes that the mainstream voter eats up.

Again, you have lost your observational objectivity for this race. Go and watch some Mark Dice videos or go to the local cafe to discuss politics with the average voter, then come back for a discussion.

 

[angelatc]

Maybe dedicating time and effort to attend a rally for someone you already support is considered a waste. Showing up on election day and voting is the real deal.

ANd maybe Trump is just more entertaining.

Regardless, Scott Adams is always a good read, and he has some thoughts on this new strategy.

[FONT=&quot]Trump is using the issue of Muslim immigration to argue that Clinton is the candidate promoting bigotry against women and the LBGTQ community. By Trump’s framing, the Democrats might help you get a gay wedding cake but Trump will prevent you from being raped and killed. Fear is the strongest persuader, so Trump effectively owns this argument now. He took the highest of the high ground. Trump is literally risking his reputation and his own life to protect women and gays. Clinton is just trying to get elected. That’s the new frame. And it is persuasive.

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Trump is also making a direct appeal for African-American votes, and that’s smart. One of the biggest rules of sales is that you have to directly ask for what you want. Asking for votes is one thing, but asking the African-American community to “try something new” because Clinton hasn’t worked out for them is perfect framing. [/FONT]

You should click here to read the whole thing, because it's very insightful.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

I disagreed wholeheartedly with Obama's policies ,thought he was full of $#@! and was angry people would buy into his speeches. But that was not to say when you observed his speeches you knew he was saying all the right things - in platitudes that the mainstream voter eats up.

I noted the same thing about Obama's convention remarks, that from the point of view of delivery, its soaringly elegant, positive rhetoric about hope and the future made it the best speech of the convention. He had to talk that way, because he couldn't straightforwardly list his accomplishments, or state how he had improved much of anything while in office.

Ultimately, substance matters more than rhetoric. Trump and Hillary have similar high negatives, but the reason people find Trump unfavorable (insulting remarks, overly vague or negative sounding proposals on Latino and Muslim immigration, alpha male egotism, etc) pales in comparison to Hillary's negatives (a failed record as Senator and Secretary of State, constant lying, constant scandals, that body count, etc). The latter has much worse substance to recoil from. The voters will ultimately choose his sometimes bad manners, over her always bad everything.

 

[fcreature]

The exclusively Never Trump or NeverHillary factions won't decide the election. Trump has the advantage of a far more motivated fanbase that would crawl through a path of hot coals for Trump. However, Hillary does have the notorious 'drag you out of the alley' ground game where they literally throw you into a van and drop you off at the polling station with a ten dollar bill in your pocket.

I thought we already learned this lesson from Ron Paul? Large, enthusiastic crowds does not equate to votes.

It's also a horrible and time proven losing strategy to rely on hatred of one candidate to GOTV in support of another candidate.

 

[AuH20]

Another encouraging sign for Trump. Extreme disappointment creates seismic political shifts that start off like ripples. Just like Bush created the path for Obama's coronation, Obama is creating the necessary conditions to catapult an unlikely candidate like Trump.

 

[undergroundrr]

It's really very simple. What trump needs to win is 2-3 ISIS-credited massacres, ideally with one on American soil somewhere in the south not too far from the border. That happens in the next 2 months, he could have it in the bag.

trump wins with fear of Muslims.
Hillary wins with fear of trump.
The LP succeeds proportional to fear of trumplary.

 

[Jamesiv1]

You should click here to read the whole thing, because it's very insightful.

Yes, quite.

Thanks.

 

[AuH20]

Did they really think that this would be easy? The media makes me chuckle.

 

[CPUd]

I noted the same thing about Obama's convention remarks, that from the point of view of delivery, its soaringly elegant, positive rhetoric about hope and the future made it the best speech of the convention. He had to talk that way, because he couldn't straightforwardly list his accomplishments, or state how he had improved much of anything while in office.

Ultimately, substance matters more than rhetoric. Trump and Hillary have similar high negatives, but the reason people find Trump unfavorable (insulting remarks, overly vague or negative sounding proposals on Latino and Muslim immigration, alpha male egotism, etc) pales in comparison to Hillary's negatives (a failed record as Senator and Secretary of State, constant lying, constant scandals, that body count, etc). The latter has much worse substance to recoil from. The voters will ultimately choose his sometimes bad manners, over her always bad everything.

Almost every poll that asks the question is showing the opposite to be true:

Poll: Clinton Maintains Big Lead as Voters Doubt Trump's Temperament

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 9 points — 50 percent to 41 percent — in the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll.

The numbers were virtually unchanged since last week's poll. Generally low favorability and negative attitudes among voters plague both candidates, however, as they make appeals to voters in key swing states in the weeks ahead.

A majority of voters continue to hold unfavorable impressions of both current nominees; Clinton's negative feelings were held by slightly less voters (59 percent) than Trump (64 percent). These results are according to the latest from the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll conducted online from August 8 through August 14, 2016 among registered voters.

...

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...lead-voters-doubt-trump-s-temperament-n631351

 

[LifeLibertyPursuit]

Hahahahaha Hahahahaha use NBC as the rebuttal seriously wow

 

[jmdrake]

Likely not for much longer since you could see the flip in strategy tonight. His NC speech was carried live in prime-time and it was very different from past campaign events where he talks off the cuff about those whom have wronged him. He rather hit on all the right economic talking points that will appeal to voters across the political spectrum. He was really on his game and probably one of the best speeches of his campaign.

For once I agree with you. Trump's latest speech, where he said he regretted saying a lot of stupid things before, might help him turn things around. Now if his supporters will follow along he might win.