Trump Is Doubling Down On A Losing Strategy

[CPUd]

Trump Is Doubling Down On A Losing Strategy

By Nate Silver

Filed under 2016 Election

One quirk of the American political system is that a candidate can win a primary with a much narrower slice of the electorate than he’d need to win a general election. Donald Trump claimed 45 percent of the vote in Republican primaries and caucuses this year, about 14 million votes. That’s a healthy total as these things go: the highest number of votes ever received by a Republican in the primaries. But Trump will need four or five times as many votes — perhaps 65 million — to win in November. His primary voters are just a drop in the bucket.

All presidential candidates face some version of this problem. But most make at least some effort to expand beyond their base and build a majority coalition. Trump hasn’t — and he has his work cut out for him like no nominee in history. Trump’s decision this week to make Stephen Bannon of the combative, anti-establishment website Breitbart News his campaign’s chief executive suggests that he’s moving in the opposite direction.

In January, even as he stood atop Republican primary polls, Trump was exceptionally unpopular with general election voters. At that time, Trump had a 33 percent favorable rating and a 58 percent unfavorable rating with the general electorate. Today? His numbers are even worse. His favorability rating is just 32 percent, according to the HuffPost Pollster aggregate, while his unfavorable rating has risen to 65 percent.

Trump is helped by the fact that Hillary Clinton might be the second-most-unpopular nominee ever, after Trump. But still, remarkably few Americans are willing to commit to voting for Trump. In the table below, I’ve listed every poll from a 2012 swing state1 taken since the conventions. On average, Trump has just 37 percent of the vote in these polls (Clinton has 44 percent). That puts him on par with Barry Goldwater and George McGovern, who each got 38 percent of the vote in their respective landslide defeats of 1964 and 1972.

Trump will probably finish with more than 37 percent by picking off some undecided and third-party voters.2 Still, with almost two-thirds of voters holding an unfavorable view of Trump, it’s not clear how many more people he can rally to his side without a big change in tone and message.

...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-doubling-down-on-a-losing-strategy/

 

[kahless]

Likely not for much longer since you could see the flip in strategy tonight. His NC speech was carried live in prime-time and it was very different from past campaign events where he talks off the cuff about those whom have wronged him. He rather hit on all the right economic talking points that will appeal to voters across the political spectrum. He was really on his game and probably one of the best speeches of his campaign.

 

[RandallFan]

30 year old wealthy elite educated gated liberal jew Nate Silver is in touch with the average swing vote. Sure.

 

[AuH20]

Likely not for much longer since you could see the flip in strategy tonight. His NC speech was carried live in prime-time and it was very different from past campaign events where he talks off the cuff about those whom have wronged him. He rather hit on all the right economic talking points that will appeal to voters across the political spectrum. He was really on his game and probably one of the best speeches of his campaign.

The polls were altered to make DJT unpalatable to the weakminded. It's the herd mentality strategy at work. Think of someone who places a 'poison' sign at the shore of a lake. That's the purpose of these skewed polls.

Hillary can't even fill up high school gymnasiums across the state of Pennsylvania, while Trump is often turning away several hundreds in various locations. Enthusiasm is on Trump's side.

 

[CPUd]

Ron Paul got hella large crowds, too. Not all of them showed up at the polls.

 

[AuH20]

30 year old wealthy elite educated gated liberal jew Nate Silver is in touch with the average swing vote. Sure.

Here's the problem I have with Nate Silver. His volatile model seems to be hocus pocus if DJT can jump to the high 50 percentile as the victor and then crash down to below 20 percent in less than two weeks. Trump did nothing catastrophic during that time to incur a drastic change like that. The Khan story was overblown because the driving issue is the lackluster economy. No one is overly concerned about some fabricated Gold Star nonsense from a Muslim immigration lawyer. I'm not buying it's significance.

 

[CPUd]

Here's the problem I have with Nate Silver. His volatile model seems to be hocus pocus if DJT can jump to the high 50 percentile as the victor and then crash down to below 20 percent in less than two weeks. Trump did nothing catastrophic during that time to incur a drastic change like that. The Khan story was overblown because the driving issue is the lackluster economy. No one is overly concerned about some fabricated Gold Star nonsense from a Muslim immigration lawyer. I'm not buying it's significance.

LOL just about everything he did since the convention has been catastrophic. Voters don't want to hear that shit, and they are letting him know.

 

[kahless]

The polls were altered to make DJT unpalatable to the weakminded. It's the herd mentality strategy at work. Think of someone who places a 'poison' sign at the shore of a lake. That's the purpose of these skewed polls.

Hillary can't even fill up high school gymnasiums across the state of Pennsylvania, while Trump is often turning away several hundreds in various locations. Enthusiasm is on Trump's side.

CPUd's job it seems is to post the poison sign on RPF. With the lack of low information voters here it is a wasted effort.

7 Times Nate Silver Was Hilariously Wrong About Donald Trump - Hat tip to [MENTION=47648]RandallFan[/MENTION]
http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7...ously-wrong-about-donald-trump/#ixzz4HjzODJw4

 

[AuH20]

Ron Paul got hella large crowds, too. Not all of them showed up at the polls.

I guess that's a valid point. But the question I pose to Hillary supporters. If they can't show up at her rallies, why does anyone think that some will wait in long lines from 45 minutes to an hour in some busy districts? It's not going to happen IMHO. The only real reliable voting demographic she has, will be urban blacks and single women. Beyond that, mileage may vary. However, early voting does not help Trump due to the potential for voter fraud.

 

[RandallFan]

Nate Silver mitigates big issues & and elevates small issues in the polling.

Big Issue: Trump loves Murica; Clinton doesn't give fuck either way.

Id say the average 50 year old white woman in Ohio is way less offended by Trump's so called anti-mexican, anti-BLM, fat ass women comments, Real Housewives type trashtalk then a 30 year old who went to the best schools in chicago & london.


Any woman less attractive & less famous than Megyn Kelly is totally offend by Trump.

He said Jeb's immigration stance was harmless to his appeal.

They aren't letting him know. 30% of blacks and 50% of hispanics aren't voting in November & are staying at home.

Not that he needs or will get a turnout a lot of moderate jews are probably offended by Israel-all-the-time rhetoric of the GOP alternatives to Trump.

 

[CPUd]

I guess that's a valid point. But the question I pose to Hillary supporters. If they can't show up at her rallies, why does anyone think that some will wait in long lines from 45 minutes to an hour in some busy districts? It's not going to happen IMHO. The only real reliable voting demographic she has, will be urban blacks and single women. Beyond that, mileage may vary. However, early voting does not help Trump due to the potential for voter fraud.

They'll do it the same way they did for Obama in 2012. What Ted Cruz had in Iowa, the Democrats have in all 50 states. Go look how hard Orca failed Team Mitt in 2012.

 

[RandallFan]

Mitt didnt' win rustbelt whites. The only reason he lost. He tied hispanic florida. Now people think he should do what rand did and speak to empty rooms in Detroit every week.

 

[AuH20]

They'll do it the same way they did for Obama in 2012. What Ted Cruz had in Iowa, the Democrats have in all 50 states. Go look how hard Orca failed Team Mitt in 2012.

You really think they can turn out in the Obama coalition in this dismal economic climate? I'm extremely skeptical. The democrat coalition is burnt out to a degree, even with the looming threat of Trump. Morale is really in the toilet, thanks to whole Bernie saga. I don't see it, but I could be wrong.

 

[CPUd]

You really think they can turn out in the Obama coalition in this dismal economic climate? I'm extremely skeptical. The democrat coalition is burnt out to a degree, even with the looming threat of Trump. I don't see it, but I could be wrong.

Not everyone believes the economy is dismal.

 

[CPUd]

Mitt didnt' win rustbelt whites. The only reason he lost. He tied hispanic florida. Now people think he should do what rand did and speak to empty rooms in Detroit every week.

Mitt lost because he couldn't get enough people to vote for him.

 

[AuH20]

Not everyone believes the economy is dismal.

The Bernie people do. That was the entire thrust of their campaign. The plutocrat driven economy was stealing more and more from the middle class. Many Bernie supporters were dismayed that good paying jobs are becoming scarcer and scarcer as recent graduates enter the marketplace.

 

[nikcers]

The Bernie people do. That was the entire thrust of their campaign. The plutocrat driven economy was stealing more and more from the middle class.

No they don't. Sanders supporters strongly supported him because of his progressive policies and because they said he was anti establishment. Sanders supporters think college education should be free and that health care should be free and that minimum wage should be scaled to inflation. Their candidate promised them a magical solution and he was never really challenged on it. Trump definitely might put those policies in his platform though, he does believe in them.

 

[spudea]

ads start tomorrow for trump. This is a rope-a-dope folks. It's ok if you don't understand after 3 failed campaigns on this forum.

 

[RandallFan]

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[puppetmaster]

Ron Paul got hella large crowds, too. Not all of them showed up at the polls.

the demographics were very different at there events. Apples and oranges. The never hillary crowd is massive and motivated.