Trends, statistics and analysis

[InTradePro]

Guys, I do a lot of analysis of things happening with political figures. Perhaps you are interested in some of it. Can't really share the specifics of how it is worked out, but to say all the information comes from sources on the internet, then adjusted as best that can be done with demographic information available - so there is a small potential for error but unlike polls the sample sizes are often much bigger meaning you get more accuracy built in as a starting point.

Top five states for Ron Paul within republician voters

As you might expect the two early states New Hampshire and Iowa are some of the best states for Dr Paul, but challenging are Montana, Rhode Island, Vermont. When polling is done, double figures in all these states are likely.

Florida
As today is the day of the Florida CPAC straw poll I thought it would be nice to see how Dr Paul is holding up in Florida.
Four years ago Florida was a tough state for Dr Paul. If I recall correctly he had about 5% in the Florida primary. How about today?

Among republican voters at this time Ron is currently running at 8%

How would a Obama vs Paul vote head to head turn out today?
In 2008, Obama best McCain on Florida with 50.9% to 48.4%

Making the assumption(from a recent poll) that Paul is 1% behind Obama nationally the result of a head to head in this state would be a tie
Paul: 48.8%
Obama:48.8%


Let me know if this interests you. I'm open to looking at specific states by request.

 

[jeremiahj13]

I like this! How is Paul doing in IA, NH, SC, FL, and NV as of lately?

 

[afwjam]

ohio?

 

[Revolution9]

Guys, I do a lot of analysis of things happening with political figures. Perhaps you are interested in some of it. Can't really share the specifics of how it is worked out, but to say all the information comes from sources on the internet, then adjusted as best that can be done with demographic information available - so there is a small potential for error but unlike polls the sample sizes are often much bigger meaning you get more accuracy built in as a starting point.

Top five states for Ron Paul within republician voters

As you might expect the two early states New Hampshire and Iowa are some of the best states for Dr Paul, but challenging are Montana, Rhode Island, Vermont. When polling is done, double figures in all these states are likely.

Florida
As today is the day of the Florida CPAC straw poll I thought it would be nice to see how Dr Paul is holding up in Florida.
Four years ago Florida was a tough state for Dr Paul. If I recall correctly he had about 5% in the Florida primary. How about today?

Among republican voters at this time Ron is currently running at 8%

How would a Obama vs Paul vote head to head turn out today?
In 2008, Obama best McCain on Florida with 50.9% to 48.4%

Making the assumption(from a recent poll) that Paul is 1% behind Obama nationally the result of a head to head in this state would be a tie
Paul: 48.8%
Obama:48.8%


Let me know if this interests you. I'm open to looking at specific states by request.

Algorithms. I like it. I want to build a game called The Political Machine where you dial in stats here and there and twiddle fuck about with the economy and demographics and the machine reacts accordingly.

Break it all down for us. Interesting statistical stuff.

Best
Rev9

 

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

Minnesota is a win. Agree?

 

[Xenophage]

Without specifics your statistics are dubious.

 

[InTradePro]

Without specifics your statistics are dubious.

Your correct of course. If someone else had posted the thread I would pretty much ignore it because there is not the information on how it was derived.
I don't mind if you ignore it or see it as a bit of fun. My intention is to inform with information more timely then polls, I'm maintening and using this information for myself so why not share it with the forum? If no one is interested then fair enough I'll just keep it to myself.

 

[Revolution9]

Your correct of course. If someone else had posted the thread I would pretty much ignore it because there is not the information on how it was derived.
I don't mind if you ignore it or see it as a bit of fun. My intention is to inform with information more timely then polls, I'm maintening and using this information for myself so why not share it with the forum? If no one is interested then fair enough I'll just keep it to myself.

HNHey!

I am interested..and from a technical standpoint as well. Don't that count fer sumthin'?

Rev9