Tommorow will be "Bloodly Blackest Monday" you have ever seen

[scooter]

hahahaha, yep.

All the negative news in the world, and the market is up 190pts.

Then a day hits when you get good news, and the market tanks.

The CPI that came out Friday showed basically no change in inflation. The first emotional reaction I had was, "Bullshit! Damn it I'm going to get murdered on my shorts today, and the gov't is lying!!!"

What I should have initially thought was, "Okay. That number is bogus. I know it is bogus. The sheep are going to think it's good. This just gives me more time to stock up on securities that thrive on inflation -- hopefully they'll be down."

Some ended up being down, but lots of people also didn't buy it. It basically gave the greenlight for the Fed to keep hacking rates and debasing the dollar, so Gold closed over $1,000. Though we know there is inflation, the Fed doesn't think so and they aren't worried about it.

No matter how much I think I know on any given day, someone is usually a few steps ahead, and someone is a few steps ahead of them.

Stick with basic supply/demand principles, and limit your downside risk. Only risk capital that if it went to zero, you wouldn't care.

What I can't quantify right now is the effect of a massive Federal gov't bailout of the banks or fannie/freddie. If they swoop in and make everything whole or backstop losses, that could kill my shorts. That being said, I still don't believe they'll have enough funds to truly backstop the whole financial system. So I've allocated some risk to thinking the Fed won't be able to save the ship with the knowledge I could be wrong, but also allocated some risk that the rest-of-the-world will dump the dollar when a massive plan like this unfolds (which it may, or may not).

The market treated the inflation data just as they should have. It looked good when it first came out, but traders remembered that this is just a month-to-month number. Food and energy didn't move all that much in February, the real takeoff happened at the beginning of March. So next month's number is going to be much worse.

 

[Rhys]

Here is a start Rhys...ask if you have further questions.

Info on these credit derivatives.

http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/CDS.pdf
http://www.newton.cam.ac.uk/preprints/NI05022.pdf
http://www.jpmorgan.com/cm/ContentSe...=1136555202065
http://www.isda.org/

Interesting article I just came across as well...

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/21/earlyshow/living/money/main3856688.shtml

Here is an interesting video on distressed corporate debt

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vqZnX1lCZggg.asf

awsome. thanks.

also, the guy who wonders if there's enough funds for all the bailouts needed.... isn't that why the fed is cuttiing rates? so they'll have enough cash?

 

[ghemminger]

awsome. thanks.

also, the guy who wonders if there's enough funds for all the bailouts needed.... isn't that why the fed is cuttiing rates? so they'll have enough cash?

Watching the cbs vid now god stuff...

"High Stakes Crapshoot" = Our economy , Sounds right

 

[manny229]

Just watch and see - the collective mind is waking... gonna be blood tommorrow

Wait a minute, you sound way too confident about tomorrow.....George... did you just get off the phone or come back from a meeting?

 

[Cowlesy]

pretty sure it's just george e-verbally gesticulating

 

[Captain America]

You are full of it G.

Lay off the Tequila.

HA!

G is doubleplusunsane

 

[OptionsTrader]

Wait a minute, you sound way too confident about tomorrow.....George... did you just get off the phone or come back from a meeting?

lol

 

[Dr.3D]

Just watch and see - the collective mind is waking... gonna be blood tommorrow

I take it you are making an educated guess?

I would also make an educated guess, this week is going to be rather interesting.

 

[grizzums]

Its A-Okay everyone...Paulson says so......we all believe him right? I mean he did say last April that the sub prime problem was fully contained and the housing market had already bottomed. Thanks for the insight Hank!

 

[aravoth]

lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Kyi0WNg40 luv ya G

 

[PatriotG]

Short term swings, who knows....but longer term trend is still down. This market is made for prof traders, others will be eaten alive as it is easy to get stuck on the wrong side.

There will be more shoes to drop imo....watch for credit default swaps/options to be an integral element of potential further "dropping shoes". $45 trillion in default swaps??? I wonder how much BSC was the counter party to these credit derivatives. Lookout for this potential mess to be part of the next phase. Just my .02.

Good Luck.

This is very true.
We haven't seen a meltdown yet in derivatives. I suspect major losses are hiding there.

45 trillion might actually be a conservative figure.

And then theres Citi., I dont think we have heard the last of them yet.
Not looking good.

Damn I'm Pissed, I feel im watching my country go on the auction block.

 

[bucfish]

Here comes the collapse of America. Damn Globalists misguided elites. Social engineering never has worked. Yet they still think you can manipulate the markets. Oh so wrong they are. Only so long can money be soured before it sours.

 

[AceNZ]

I don't see any evidence off a big sell off tomorrow.

How about these: The Nikkei is down 515 so far. The yen is below 97 at 96.95. Dow Futures are down 244.

 

[Dr.3D]

How about these: The Nikkei is down 515 so far. The yen is below 97 at 96.95. Dow Futures are down 244.

Seems like a pretty good indication ghemminger is right on this one.

 

[Pauls' Revere]

Anyone else think there is going to be another rate cut?

Already done !!!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/fed_credit_crisis

 

[polomertz]

Peter Schiff called Monday too - unless that's who ghemminger is referring to.
Video
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-FBN-3-14-08_lg.asp

The Fed called Monday as well - with their "emergency session" and all.

Edit: duplicate

 

[danberkeley]

Peter Schiff called Monday too - unless that's who ghemminger is referring too.
Video
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-FBN-3-14-08_lg.asp

The Fed called Monday as well - with their "emergency session" and all.

Edit: duplicate

pretty much anything WE say is what Peter Schiff has said for the past 10 years. lol

 

[asheville4paul]

Dow could lose 1000 points or more tomorrow.

 

[Geronimo]

The Fed will most likely cut the rates on Tuesday so stocks will go down some, but it won't "crash" so to speak. The value of the dollar, on the other hand, will drop.

Bear Stearns will feel the heat.

I just saw on the news that the Fed cut rates today. Sunday of all days.

 

[tpreitzel]

Dow could lose 1000 points or more tomorrow.

Trading will likely be suspended first. Steven Vincent and Peter Schiff have just been talking about the possibility of bank closures on Monday, March 17, 2008. We'll see.