To Stay Viable You Have To Place In the Top 4 In Iowa

[ProBlue33]

If you look at the race in Iowa, realistically you can be no further back than 4th, as McCain was in 2008.
Every other primary they were above that. Really and honestly if Rand can't at least get #4 he should drop out and focus on his senate seat.
The reality is actually everybody should drop out that is not in 4th or higher because the voting is too splintered now, with Trump winning this way.

I think NH will tell the tale the top 4 there would carry on and everybody else will either drop or just stay on to troll the real contest.


Here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary

 

[Kotin]

thanks for the sage advice..

 

[presence]

To stay viable all you have to to is remain irate and tireless.

The liberty movement is not about a binary flip of winning or losing; its about spreading a message.

Since this last debate Rand has had more air time than any other potus candidate. And he's not making vague "making america great again" statements, he's educating people as to the liberty message. That is winning.

 

[LatinsforPaul]

 

[Peace&Freedom]

Based on the 'three tickets out of Iowa' rhetoric coming from MSM central, Rand has to finish third or higher to be taken seriously. Then Rand will then have to finish third in NH to lock in 'serious' status for himself, and keep the media from framing his IA finish as a worthless one-off.

A second place finish for Rand in IA will be catastrophic for Cruz as a third place candidate, since he was expected to place first, and for Rubio as a fourth place finisher since he was expected to finish third.

 

[mwkaufman]

Rand Paul needs better than that. Going into the 2008 Iowa Caucus McCain had a 6 point lead in New Hampshire.

 

[TheNewYorker]

Since at least 1992, to win you must either place top 4 in Iowa and #1 in New Hampshire, or top 3 in Iowa and top 2 in New Hampshire.

Even if Rand places top 3 in Iowa, there's no way he's going to place top 2 in NH. No way at all.

I'm not trying to be negative, but the odds aren't on his side.

Even if Rand wins Iowa, he would still probably need a top 2 in NH.

 

[derek4ever]

Since at least 1992, to win you must either place top 4 in Iowa and #1 in New Hampshire, or top 3 in Iowa and top 2 in New Hampshire.

Even if Rand places top 3 in Iowa, there's no way he's going to place top 2 in NH. No way at all.

I'm not trying to be negative, but the odds aren't on his side.

Even if Rand wins Iowa, he would still probably need a top 2 in NH.

I think rand has a big challenge in NH. He could win iowa and place in the top 4 in NH. Rand could survive the early bird states with a win in ia and nv and being in the top half in NH and sc, for example.

 

[RDM]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?

 

[Badger Paul]

"Even if Rand places top 3 in Iowa, there's no way he's going to place top 2 in NH. No way at all."

Don't be so sure. Trump is way out in front in NH but it's pretty fluid for second place and and top three finish in Iowa would be a tremendous lift for Rand largely because it will come as a shock, no one will expect it and he'll gain a lot of free media over the next week which will boost his poll numbers in NH. The question is will it happen?

 

[TheNewYorker]

he'll gain a lot of free media over the next week which will boost his poll numbers in NH.

LOL

Have you met the media?

 

[MelissaWV]

LOL

Have you met the media?

The media is pushing the Rubio "surge" which they will continue to report on instead of anything to do with Rand.

Also, the OP's premise is based on smaller fields at this juncture.

 

[Cabal]

I'd say percentage is more important than placement where Iowa is concerned. 15% is the minimum threshold of viability. As I understand it, any low than that and no delegates will be awarded.

 

[RonPaulMall]

I'd say percentage is more important than placement where Iowa is concerned. 15% is the minimum threshold of viability. As I understand it, any low than that and no delegates will be awarded.

Delegates are irrelevant. Media only reports the "winners". Rand needs to finish in third place ahead of Rubio. If he does that the media can't ignore him because they've spent the past week endlessly hyping Rubio's phantom "surge". If Rand gets third he has a "ticket" going in to New Hampshire and the Establishment has to completely regroup and pick a new candidate to replace Rubio (most likely Kasich). Then Rand will have to finish ahead of that guy in New Hampshire.

 

[Dianne]

I don't think Rand should drop out of the race, under any circumstances. He is the only candidate with a different voice than the others. He is the only alternative to the neocon war hawks running. That option needs to remain in the running.

 

[erowe1]

I expect him to be top 4 in both.

But the only way I think that's good enough is if this goes all the way to the convention.

 

[jllundqu]

Take it to the convention, beyotch!

 

[Southron]

If Rand could rise to 3rd with Cruz declining with a big gap between him and Trump, perhaps Rand could take his position away as the alternative to Trump.

 

[seapilot]

LOL

Have you met the media?

Saw this on another site. They called them the proper name. The ENEmedia.

 

[Jan2017]

I'd say percentage is more important than placement where Iowa is concerned. 15% is the minimum threshold of viability. As I understand it, any low than that and no delegates will be awarded.

In some primary states there is a percentage threshold,
but of course in Iowa there will be no delegates or allotment for anyone decided tonight.

NH and SC will be the only states before Super Tuesday to allot any bound delegates