This Is A Promising Way Of Looking At Things

[carterm]

let's be simple:

States/Places Mitt Romney Won/Probably Won (18):
New Hampshire
Florida
Nevada
Arizona
Michigan
Wyoming
Idaho
Massachusetts
Ohio
Vermont
Virginia
U.S. Virgin Islands
Guam
Puerto Rico
Northern Mariana Islands
Hawaii
American Samoa
Illinois

States Ron Paul Won/Probably Won (7):
Iowa
Minnesota
Missouri
Maine
Washington
North Dakota
Alaska

States Rick Santorum Won/Probably Won (6):
Colorado
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Kansas
Alabama
Mississippi

States Newt Gingrich Won/Probably Won (2):
South Carolina
Georgia

 

[zadrock]

FYI, you have Georgia under Romney. So he only has 19 once you take that out. GA is also listed (correctly) under Newt.

But thanks, this is a good synopsis...

 

[carterm]

woopZ fixed

 

[zadrock]

Do we have any shot at picking up a plurality of delegates in CO?

 

[PaulSoHard]

Give Georgia to us if Gingrich drops out hahahah.

I want Colorado under Paul too, but this list gives a fair assessment, much more fair than the MSM.

 

[carterm]

Do we have any shot at picking up a plurality of delegates in CO?

a shot, yes

 

[IDefendThePlatform]

I've got little knowledge to go on, but I feel like Colorado and Nevada are both still in play for us.

Of course, we can't count our chickens yet in Iowa or some of the other "probably Paul" states either. A lot still up in the air. But still a good list. +rep

 

[zadrock]

hey, i just noticed that Colorado is also double-counted in your list, under Romney and Santorum. So I guess Rom is down to 18...

 

[rpwi]

Give Georgia to us if Gingrich drops out hahahah.

I want Colorado under Paul too, but this list gives a fair assessment, much more fair than the MSM.

Newt could have a much tougher time meeting 'rule 40' than Paul... If Newt doesn't qualify for first ballot...wonder how all his delegates will vote? It won't be for Romney...and Santorum might be too much competition on later rounds of voting...

 

[PolicyReader]

we also have an outside chance at Idaho, it is properly listed under Romney where it currently belongs but the fight isn't over there. It's a long shot I'll admit but our ground game was/is strong there and if they keep going as planned we could see a change.

+rep for list

 

[HaryTemp]

Give Georgia to us if Gingrich drops out hahahah.

I want Colorado under Paul too, but this list gives a fair assessment, much more fair than the MSM.

the LAST thing Ron Paul wants at this point is for Gingrich to drop out.

If the strategy really is <1144 for Romney, they you do't want to release ANY delegates. Sure..MAYBE Ron Paul picks up most of them...but not all. Romney will get some...and that brings him closer to 1144 for free.

The time for rooting for gingrich to drop out is long gone. He isn't taking any delegates away from anyone from here on out anyway. So you don't want ANy of his delegates to be free to even consider Romney.

Some people really HAVE to stop with this incorrect notion that every vote for Gingrich is a vote for "anyone but Romney" because it isn't. Sure...many are. Maybe even most. But not all. There really ARE a lot of people voting for Santourm or Gingrich that would vote for Romney as their second choice. If for no other reason than becuase he is considered the leader. And if he is the presumtive nominee Newt WILL pledge his delegates to Romney. That doesn't force them to vote for him, but it will make a lot of them do it. And again....even vote that Romney picks up would be a freebie toward 1144.

Look at it this way...if Newt has 100 delegates, and Ron Paul picks up 99 and Romney gets 1, that is BAD for Ron Paul...not good. And the reality is, out of 100, Romney won't just get 1. He might get 20. And that could EASILY be the difference between 1128 and 1148.

 

[carterm]

updated

 

[harikaried]

Is the reason Nevada is listed under Romney that Nevada is officially binding? Someone was saying the delegates at the state convention could vote to unbind the delegates, and Ron Paul got around 50% of the delegates from Clark County (2/3 of the state population there).

 

[zadrock]

Your list got me wondering... When is the earliest that RP could claim to win a state from your list? Here is the list of dates for the various conventions in each state. I also threw in Nevada and Colorado at the bottom.

Iowa - June 16
Minnesota - Apr 14 - 21 (District) May 4 - 5 (at-large)
Missouri - Apr 21 (District) June 2 (at-large)
Maine - May 5/6
Washington - May 30 - June 2
North Dakota - March 30 - Apr 1
Alaska - Apr 26-28

Nevada - May 5-6
Colorado - Apr 12-13 (District) Apr 14 (at-large)

Wouldn't you know it, the earliest date is april 1st. So when we announce that RP has won North Dakota, no one will believe us...

I wonder whether the campaign itself will make big announcements after these conventions have taken place and they know they have the delegates...

 

[eleganz]

Idaho Nevada and colorado can still be won it depends if our majority can overrule the popular vote

 

[Titus]

+rep

 

[carterm]

for CO, NV, and ID, i'll wait before switching them to the paul list. could make for a nice surprise.

 

[gerryb]

I wonder whether the campaign itself will make big announcements after these conventions have taken place and they know they have the delegates...

They better be getting them together for group photo with Ron Paul, and having a statement about what type of candidate they will be voting for at the convention...

 

[Peace&Freedom]

There's going to be an uproar in the media once these "what, X won the state vote, but Paul wins the delegates at the state convention???" results start happening, or even are threatened to be happening. The rebels have found the exhaust port!