Correct me if im wrong. McCain doesn't have all the delegates they say he has. Example in Florida he won and it is a so called winner take all but he has still yet to receive 1 delegate. The only way he could take all in Florida is if Dr. Paul drops out and Huckabee drops out, which is not likely. We could still collect delegates from Florida even tho we did not win the winner take all.
This can increase chances for a brokered convention!!!
- Thread starter alarga
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When was the last time you EVER had a positive comment on these boards?
nate895
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Ohio, Vermont, and Wisconsin are winner take all statewide or by Congressional District.
Texas is winner-take-all if someone gets more than 50% of the vote.
nate895
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He has pledged delegates, that haven't technically been apportioned yet though.
The plan is to have 1,191 "sleeper" delegates that will vote for Paul when they become unbound.
alarga
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True. But if they stick to the estimates, and he wins, then he takes all because they are pledged.
But this makes me think: Is it too late to make such deals in winner takes all states where the election is over and where McSwine won - but not in a number higher than Hucks and Pauls together?
Not 1 candidate has the number of delegates the media reports...
The delegates in most states have not been decided at the state level.
Has the media gone to each of these elected delegates and asked them who they are going to vote for? No, the media is guessing that the delegates represent the same percentage of the populace that votes in the primaries and then assigns delegates. This is not true, most people do not want to become delegates... only the "real" grassroots become delegates.
Until the convention happens all candidates have ZERO delegates. You can hope that each of the delegates that have been "morally bound" to a candidate will vote for him but you cannot force them. You can speculate, you can guess but until its over it aint over. This is why it is important to become a delegate and only vote for Ron Paul delegates.
The delegates in most states have not been decided at the state level.
Has the media gone to each of these elected delegates and asked them who they are going to vote for? No, the media is guessing that the delegates represent the same percentage of the populace that votes in the primaries and then assigns delegates. This is not true, most people do not want to become delegates... only the "real" grassroots become delegates.
Until the convention happens all candidates have ZERO delegates. You can hope that each of the delegates that have been "morally bound" to a candidate will vote for him but you cannot force them. You can speculate, you can guess but until its over it aint over. This is why it is important to become a delegate and only vote for Ron Paul delegates.
limequat
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My projections have Ohio and Wisconsin going to Huck with Vermont going to McCain. McCain WILL NOT have enough pledged delegates to win on the first ballot. The question is how many unpledged delegates will vote for him.
limequat
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Yes, we agree on that much. McCain can only win on the first ballot if he gets a lot of the unpledged delegates.
How could they go by the estimates? they are obviously wrong. Ron has more than 16 delegates and I doubt McCain really has the 800 whatever delegates they say he has. And it is not to late to collect delegates in winner take all states. If you live in Florida become a delegate a.s.a.p. h ttp://www.rpof.org/rnc.php
nate895
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You still didn't get my math. It is nearly impossible for him, nearly impossible, to lock it up.
nate895
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Yes, but it's nearly impossible for McCain to get those delegates outright. See my spreadsheet.
And if you don't think the rules back this up see:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-DSVE.phtml
P.S. We may get 27 Indiana delegates.
Oh! I was confused, looking at the spreadsheet, thinking I was looking at *present* count but realized that you were giving a projected *total* based on estimate (you're using $/voter, right?)
I don't know enough if the math will hold, so I'll leave it alone then. That said, I sincerely hope enough of delegates for McCain/Huckabee/Romney are RP supporters.
I don't know enough if the math will hold, so I'll leave it alone then. That said, I sincerely hope enough of delegates for McCain/Huckabee/Romney are RP supporters.
nate895
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Oh! I was confused, looking at the spreadsheet, thinking I was looking at *present* count but realized that you were giving a projected *total* based on estimate (you're using $/voter, right?)
I don't know enough if the math will hold, so I'll leave it alone then. That said, I sincerely hope enough of delegates for McCain/Huckabee/Romney are RP supporters.
I'm using how good they'll do based on the voter makeup and exit/entrance polls done from previous primaries and caucuses. States like Indiana, Ohio, and Texas, GOP voters closely reflect those of Iowa, Kansas, and Southern States, so I projected they'd go for Huckabee. I then assumed for proportional ones where McCain would do better that Huckabee would get apx. 40% of the vote. Puerto Rico I assumed Huckabee would get at least the 20% threshold and come in second.
All this is is assuming, the entire delegate count so far is all assumptions. Until you get to the convention you will not know how many Ron Paul supporters actually became delegates compared to the other candidates. You can unbind delegates... you can change the party completely at the convention with the grassroots. Its entire platform can be changed.
The election process is still completely grassroots but the media wants you to think you don't have the power to change it. That it is over and your participation does not count. This is FALSE. The delegates decide the nominee, the individual people that became a delegate will shape the party. This is what we are doing and why it is not important what the media is saying. Stop listening to them, turn off the tv. Ron Paul knows what he is doing. Believe in yourself and encourage others to believe. Stop with these delegate counting nonsense it means nothing, go out there and get other people to actually become delegates it WILL make a difference.
coffeewithchess
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Yea, this is the same HQ that asked us for $12 million in the 4th quarter and we gave them $19 million, and they wasted it on garbage. This is the same HQ that took two months to actually call Glenn Beck back and schedule an interview after they had already canceled on Glenn Beck before. This is the same HQ that also scheduled an interview with Neal Boortz and backed out. I say we vote for Huckabee all we can, at this point, HQ is an absolute failure and I hope that we are smart enough to realize that Huckabee is our only chance at a brokered convention at this point.
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