yongrel
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Bailouts and Third Party Possibilities
by J. Bradley Jansen
http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/10/01/bailouts-and-third-party-possibilities/
Recent scientific public opinion polls show independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party presidential nominee Bob Barr attracting statistically significant support nationwide, and both are on nearly all state ballots. In various states, their votes will likely determine which candidate gets a plurality. Real Clear Politics and Pollster.com provide useful collections of national polls: Nader and Barr for RCP and Nader, Barr and McKinney for Pollster.com. Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney, like Barr, served in the US House of Representatives. If Cynthia McKinney is included in polls, she gets no more than 1% support nationwide and is on the ballot in 32 states with 368 electoral votes. Constitution Party candidate Chuck Baldwin is on the ballot in 37 states with 318 electoral votes, but the only poll where I have found any Baldwin support was 0.1% back in August (the same poll also had American Independent Party candidate Alan Keyes at 0.7% who is on the ballot in 3 states with 91 electoral votes). Baldwin in 2008 has about the same support as Michael Peroutka and Charles Baldwin got last time with 144,499 popular votes and 0.12%—although he is on the ballot for fewer Americans this time so the total will likely be lower especially with Keyes splitting the vote.
The Libertarian Party’s high water mark was in 1980 when Ed Clark got 1.1% of the vote and 921,299 popular votes. Ron Paul in 1988 and Harry Browne in 1996 both received about half that level of support. With high name recognition and aggressive media appearances, Bob Barr was polling in the mid-single digits in national polls over the summer hitting 6% in a June Rasmussen poll, 4% in a June LA Times/Bloomberg poll and 2-3% in other national polls over the early summer. Then Green Party presidential nominee Ralph Nader got an impressive 2,883,105 popular votes and 2.73% in 2000 but also hit 6% in several nationwide polls this June and July.
The Democracy Corps poll (conducted September 28nd-30th and released October 1st) has Nader holding steady at 2% and Barr’s support hovering between 1-2% from the previous apples-to-apples comparison. It also the only poll to include “Constitution Party/Louisiana Taxpayer Party candidate Ron Paul” who is on the ballot in two states with 12 electoral votes, but he consistently gets zero percent of the vote both nationwide and in selected battleground states. Support for Baldwin would seem to be negligible since the poll does explicitly include the Constitution Party candidate Ron Paul (who has affirmatively asked state Secretaries of State to remove his name from the ballot). It is doubtful that Baldwin’s support would be higher than Ron Paul’s who acts as the party standard bearer in the poll.
A DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 poll during the same dates has Barr and Nader with 2%. The results have remained steady. The Daily Kos poll also shows some very useful crosstab information: Barr has 2% in every geographic region of the country, has 3% of the male vote but only 1% of the female vote, 2% of Republicans and 4% of independents and 3% of “other” and whites, and 4% of 30-44 year olds. No other (minor party/independent) candidate gets 4% of any crosstab except for Barr. Nader gets even support from men and women, and his best crosstab is 3% from independents. The poll is weighted with only 26% Republicans (notably lower than most other polls: Rasmussen’s sample includes 33.4% Republicans, e.g.) so the numbers are probably even better for Barr and Nader. (Scientific public opinion polls often use a two or three-day rolling averages with some margin of error so the magnitude of the changes should be taken with a grain of salt—especially for daily tracking polls.)
The most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted September 27-29th shows the (major) minor party candidates doing well. Barr’s support doubled from 1% to 2% while Nader also gained one point to 3% (a 50% increase) compared to the same poll a week earlier. In the poll ending the 29th, Barr’s support among likely voters and registered voters holds at 2% in both camps (up from 1% for both likely voters and registered voters in the same poll ending September 22nd). On the other hand, Nader’s support fell from 4% of registered voters to only 3% when likely voters were considered (his support in both categories increased by 1% from the previous poll). This data indicates that Barr’s support is “firmer” than the support for Nader (who is probably benefiting from higher name identification among those less likely to actually show up at the polls).
A Zogby (Internet) poll conducted September 26th & 27th put Barr at 3.7% with Nader at 1% and McKinney at 0.6%. In the Zogby internet poll, Democratic presidential nominee Barak Obama’s support drops from 47.1% in a two-way matchup with McCain to 46.4% in a five-way race (a drop of only 0.7%) while McCain’s support falls from 45.9% against only Obama to 43.4% when the minor party candidates are included. McCain’s loss of two-and-a-half points is four times greater than Obama’s drop indicating that McCain should be more threatened by the minor parties than his Democratic rival. “Other/not sure” slips from 7.0% to 4.8% when the minor parties are included.
The national polls conducted September 19th to the 22nd include an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that put Nader at a solid 5% and Barr again at 2%. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll provides a breakdown both of likely versus registered voters but also some crosstab information for Nader, Barr and McKinney: Nader gets the support of 2% of registered and likely voters, 6% of independents, 1% each from Democrats and Republicans, 2% from liberals and moderates and 3% of conservatives, 3% of whites and men but only 2% of women; Barr gets 1% of registered and likely voters, liberals and women but 2% of independents and Republicans, moderates and conservatives, whites and men; McKinney got 0% of registered voters, liberals and moderates, whites and women, but she got 1% among likely voters, independents and Republicans, conservatives and men; neither McKinney nor Barr got any statistically measurable support from Democrats. Similarly, a CNN/Opinion Research poll on the same dates has Nader at 4% and Barr and McKinney at 1% with Americans blaming the Republicans over the Democrats for the financial crisis by a margin of 2-to-1.
This year is shaping up to be a banner year for third party candidates. Libertarian Party presidential nominee Bob Barr is set break all party records, and Ralph Nader is also polling well. Obama’s support is relatively firmer than McCain’s. That not only Barr—but Nader and McKinney—are drawing their support from what should be McCain voters does not bode well for the Republican nominee.
J. Bradley Jansen was a legislative staffer for U.S. Congressman Ron Paul from 1997-2001. He is director of the Center for Financial Privacy and Human Rights of the Liberty and Privacy Network (but views expressed here are his own), which is part of Bob Barr’s Patriots to Restore Checks and Balances.
by J. Bradley Jansen
http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/10/01/bailouts-and-third-party-possibilities/
Recent scientific public opinion polls show independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party presidential nominee Bob Barr attracting statistically significant support nationwide, and both are on nearly all state ballots. In various states, their votes will likely determine which candidate gets a plurality. Real Clear Politics and Pollster.com provide useful collections of national polls: Nader and Barr for RCP and Nader, Barr and McKinney for Pollster.com. Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney, like Barr, served in the US House of Representatives. If Cynthia McKinney is included in polls, she gets no more than 1% support nationwide and is on the ballot in 32 states with 368 electoral votes. Constitution Party candidate Chuck Baldwin is on the ballot in 37 states with 318 electoral votes, but the only poll where I have found any Baldwin support was 0.1% back in August (the same poll also had American Independent Party candidate Alan Keyes at 0.7% who is on the ballot in 3 states with 91 electoral votes). Baldwin in 2008 has about the same support as Michael Peroutka and Charles Baldwin got last time with 144,499 popular votes and 0.12%—although he is on the ballot for fewer Americans this time so the total will likely be lower especially with Keyes splitting the vote.
The Libertarian Party’s high water mark was in 1980 when Ed Clark got 1.1% of the vote and 921,299 popular votes. Ron Paul in 1988 and Harry Browne in 1996 both received about half that level of support. With high name recognition and aggressive media appearances, Bob Barr was polling in the mid-single digits in national polls over the summer hitting 6% in a June Rasmussen poll, 4% in a June LA Times/Bloomberg poll and 2-3% in other national polls over the early summer. Then Green Party presidential nominee Ralph Nader got an impressive 2,883,105 popular votes and 2.73% in 2000 but also hit 6% in several nationwide polls this June and July.
The Democracy Corps poll (conducted September 28nd-30th and released October 1st) has Nader holding steady at 2% and Barr’s support hovering between 1-2% from the previous apples-to-apples comparison. It also the only poll to include “Constitution Party/Louisiana Taxpayer Party candidate Ron Paul” who is on the ballot in two states with 12 electoral votes, but he consistently gets zero percent of the vote both nationwide and in selected battleground states. Support for Baldwin would seem to be negligible since the poll does explicitly include the Constitution Party candidate Ron Paul (who has affirmatively asked state Secretaries of State to remove his name from the ballot). It is doubtful that Baldwin’s support would be higher than Ron Paul’s who acts as the party standard bearer in the poll.
A DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 poll during the same dates has Barr and Nader with 2%. The results have remained steady. The Daily Kos poll also shows some very useful crosstab information: Barr has 2% in every geographic region of the country, has 3% of the male vote but only 1% of the female vote, 2% of Republicans and 4% of independents and 3% of “other” and whites, and 4% of 30-44 year olds. No other (minor party/independent) candidate gets 4% of any crosstab except for Barr. Nader gets even support from men and women, and his best crosstab is 3% from independents. The poll is weighted with only 26% Republicans (notably lower than most other polls: Rasmussen’s sample includes 33.4% Republicans, e.g.) so the numbers are probably even better for Barr and Nader. (Scientific public opinion polls often use a two or three-day rolling averages with some margin of error so the magnitude of the changes should be taken with a grain of salt—especially for daily tracking polls.)
The most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted September 27-29th shows the (major) minor party candidates doing well. Barr’s support doubled from 1% to 2% while Nader also gained one point to 3% (a 50% increase) compared to the same poll a week earlier. In the poll ending the 29th, Barr’s support among likely voters and registered voters holds at 2% in both camps (up from 1% for both likely voters and registered voters in the same poll ending September 22nd). On the other hand, Nader’s support fell from 4% of registered voters to only 3% when likely voters were considered (his support in both categories increased by 1% from the previous poll). This data indicates that Barr’s support is “firmer” than the support for Nader (who is probably benefiting from higher name identification among those less likely to actually show up at the polls).
A Zogby (Internet) poll conducted September 26th & 27th put Barr at 3.7% with Nader at 1% and McKinney at 0.6%. In the Zogby internet poll, Democratic presidential nominee Barak Obama’s support drops from 47.1% in a two-way matchup with McCain to 46.4% in a five-way race (a drop of only 0.7%) while McCain’s support falls from 45.9% against only Obama to 43.4% when the minor party candidates are included. McCain’s loss of two-and-a-half points is four times greater than Obama’s drop indicating that McCain should be more threatened by the minor parties than his Democratic rival. “Other/not sure” slips from 7.0% to 4.8% when the minor parties are included.
The national polls conducted September 19th to the 22nd include an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that put Nader at a solid 5% and Barr again at 2%. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll provides a breakdown both of likely versus registered voters but also some crosstab information for Nader, Barr and McKinney: Nader gets the support of 2% of registered and likely voters, 6% of independents, 1% each from Democrats and Republicans, 2% from liberals and moderates and 3% of conservatives, 3% of whites and men but only 2% of women; Barr gets 1% of registered and likely voters, liberals and women but 2% of independents and Republicans, moderates and conservatives, whites and men; McKinney got 0% of registered voters, liberals and moderates, whites and women, but she got 1% among likely voters, independents and Republicans, conservatives and men; neither McKinney nor Barr got any statistically measurable support from Democrats. Similarly, a CNN/Opinion Research poll on the same dates has Nader at 4% and Barr and McKinney at 1% with Americans blaming the Republicans over the Democrats for the financial crisis by a margin of 2-to-1.
This year is shaping up to be a banner year for third party candidates. Libertarian Party presidential nominee Bob Barr is set break all party records, and Ralph Nader is also polling well. Obama’s support is relatively firmer than McCain’s. That not only Barr—but Nader and McKinney—are drawing their support from what should be McCain voters does not bode well for the Republican nominee.
J. Bradley Jansen was a legislative staffer for U.S. Congressman Ron Paul from 1997-2001. He is director of the Center for Financial Privacy and Human Rights of the Liberty and Privacy Network (but views expressed here are his own), which is part of Bob Barr’s Patriots to Restore Checks and Balances.
Good to see you back ya asshole. 
