"There's no inflation."

All the counties are printing money, so the dollar can actually be getting stronger (relatively) in the future. We then get deflation.

LOL not even on imported goods...

I like the sound of it, though!

Ok, if the broad CPI includes food and energy prices (which have both increased by a lot over the past few years), then why does it say there's basically no inflation?

Because they're figuring inflation based on the spending habits of someone who spends three percent of their income on food and ninety-seven percent of their income on Chinese electronics, or something close to that.
 
P.S.P.S.P.S.

Me again.

I think we've been conditioned to think all wrong about the stock market. I'm thinking the Dow Jones Industrial average is an indicator of inflation.

If you got into the market in the sixties with a million dollars and road out the last fifty years you'd have about thirty million.

While on the one hand we might think thirty million is a good thing we could be deceived. I'm thinking that when they double the money supply your Uncle Phil gets twice as many of something worth half as much.

The same thing happens with your ride up to thirty million. You can still buy the same amount of stuff as you could with your one million when you started except for now the very people that made the inflation possible have something they call capital gains taxes. All the while the markets been going up we've been thinking we are better off. Like so many things I think we've been tricked.

If it was to fall all the way back down you'd end up with your original million and owe no taxes on it.


The early crash in the thirties I think most of the people like us were late comers to the market. Old money could have road it out. Same thing now as long as it doesn't go below what you've paid your still setting pretty.

P.S.P.S.P.S. and P.S Even if you got in on the high with inflated currency and took a heavy hit and a ride to what we were thinking was down you'd end up with the same value in deflated currency when you sold plus be able to deduct a loss on the illusion of a loss.

Seems the only downside is the upside.
 
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Ok, if the broad CPI includes food and energy prices (which have both increased by a lot over the past few years), then why does it say there's basically no inflation?

1) What's your source for claiming that both food and energy both increased a lot over the past few years?
2) What's your source for saying that the broad CPI shows basically no inflation?

Do you have any actual numbers for either of those?
 
P.S.P.S.P.S.

Me again.

I think we've been conditioned to think all wrong about the stock market. I'm thinking the Dow Jones Industrial average is an indicator of inflation.

That is one if the first destinations of monetary inflation.
 
LOL not even on imported goods...

I like the sound of it, though!



Because they're figuring inflation based on the spending habits of someone who spends three percent of their income on food and ninety-seven percent of their income on Chinese electronics, or something close to that.

Food is closer to eleven percent.

Link to CPI FAQs: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm

What goods and services does the CPI cover?

The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W) BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups. Major groups and examples of categories in each are as follows:

FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewelry)
TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
RECREATION (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions);
EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories);
OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses).

Also included within these major groups are various government-charged user fees, such as water and sewerage charges, auto registration fees, and vehicle tolls. In addition, the CPI includes taxes (such as sales and excise taxes) that are directly associated with the prices of specific goods and services. However, the CPI excludes taxes (such as income and Social Security taxes) not directly associated with the purchase of consumer goods and services.

The CPI does not include investment items, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and life insurance. (These items relate to savings and not to day-to-day consumption expenses.)

The examples are general- not specific. To count the costs of a home you own, they consider what the rental cost of an equivalent home would be.

How are CPI prices collected and reviewed?
Each month, BLS data collectors called economic assistants visit or call thousands of retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors' offices, all over the United States, to obtain information on the prices of the thousands of items used to track and measure price changes in the CPI. These economic assistants record the prices of about 80,000 items each month, representing a scientifically selected sample of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services purchased.

During each call or visit, the economic assistant collects price data on a specific good or service that was precisely defined during an earlier visit. If the selected item is available, the economic assistant records its price. If the selected item is no longer available, or if there have been changes in the quality or quantity (for example, eggs sold in packages of ten when they previously were sold by the dozen) of the good or service since the last time prices were collected, the economic assistant selects a new item or records the quality change in the current item.

The recorded information is sent to the national office of BLS, where commodity specialists who have detailed knowledge about the particular goods or services priced review the data. These specialists check the data for accuracy and consistency and make any necessary corrections or adjustments, which can range from an adjustment for a change in the size or quantity of a packaged item to more complex adjustments based upon statistical analysis of the value of an item's features or quality. Thus, commodity specialists strive to prevent changes in the quality of items from affecting the CPI's measurement of price change.
 
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gold is $1330 , silver is $20, therefore no inflation, case closed.
 
Workforce participation rate has gone from 66% to 63%. Is that a huge change?


Sure doesn't seem like much of a change but it really showed up in the San Francisco Bay Area or Silicon Valley area. No work. Many layoffs. The traffic dropped drastically.

Maybe it didn't show up much at all in the farm areas. Maybe they are too necessary to have seen heavy layoffs.

I tried changing the dates on the website to, "1996 to 2014" to get back before the big bust around 2011. I'm not sure if it will show up in this link. Didn't work. You'll have to manually change it at the top.

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
 
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Workforce participation rate has gone from 66% to 63%. Is that a huge change?

It is a pretty big change. 3/66=0.045. So if those people were being counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would be 12% rather than 7.5%, meaning it would be worse now than back when the labor participation rate was at 66%, not better.
 
Workforce participation rate has gone from 66% to 63%. Is that a huge change?

Isn't that nearly five million human souls?

Depends on if you're one of them, I guess. Or if you have enough sense to know that growing a huge, hopeless underclass doesn't strengthen the nation. Or if you have an ounce of human compassion.
 
It is a pretty big change. 3/66=0.045. So if those people were being counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would be 12% rather than 7.5%, meaning it would be worse now than back when the labor participation rate was at 66%, not better.

Should people who are not looking for a job (for whatever reason) be counted as unemployed?
 
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