The Ronulans are among us: How Ron Paul’s delegate strategy is actually working

[ProvincialPeasant]

When will we know for sure how many delegates we will get from all of this? I'm a bit afraid of believing that we will get majorities or pluralities in a lot of these, especially since we were meant to win (it was suggested that winning meant the straw polls) the caucus states.

 

[PolicyReader]

Almost no one will have actual delegate counts (at least for public consumption/open net posting) prior to the vote in Tampa.
As to the delegates themselves they are assigned whenever the state finishes it's convention it's going to be awhile in many cases.
Link: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...-conventions-take-place&p=4244430#post4244430
That provides some dates, tho TX has changed since that list was put together so bear that in mind.

Even with those hard numbers aren't going to be clearly forthcoming for any candidate really because of the number Unbound and the possibilities for delegates who'd vote for someone else when unbound (I think there's more of a shift than most might expect and primarily, but certainly not exclusively, toward Paul).
Pluralities are obviously more likely in many cases than majorities but we'll have to see there.
Then to further muddy the waters there are all the individual state rules which could alter certain things about delegates from their states & the possible challenges to various delegates being seated at both the state and national levels (there have been sufficient rules violations for grounds in both cases, the question is what will come of it and in which cases).

In summation don't believe anyone who tells you they know for certain what the delegate numbers actually are because honestly they don't.
And don't believe the media delegate counts regardless because they're so bad it hurts

So far tho the delegate assessments coming out of the Paul camp have been pretty solid, in fact part of what makes them as accurate as they are is that Paul isn't throwing out hard number guesses like most of the others who claim to have counts.

 

[CTRattlesnake]

Almost no one will have actual delegate counts (at least for public consumption/open net posting) prior to the vote in Tampa.
As to the delegates themselves they are assigned whenever the state finishes it's convention it's going to be awhile in many cases.
Link: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...-conventions-take-place&p=4244430#post4244430
That provides some dates, tho TX has changed since that list was put together so bear that in mind.

Even with those hard numbers aren't going to be clearly forthcoming for any candidate really because of the number Unbound and the possibilities for delegates who'd vote for someone else when unbound (I think there's more of a shift than most might expect and primarily, but certainly not exclusively, toward Paul).
Pluralities are obviously more likely in many cases than majorities but we'll have to see there.
Then to further muddy the waters there are all the individual state rules which could alter certain things about delegates from their states & the possible challenges to various delegates being seated at both the state and national levels (there have been sufficient rules violations for grounds in both cases, the question is what will come of it and in which cases).

In summation don't believe anyone who tells you they know for certain what the delegate numbers actually are because honestly they don't.
And don't believe the media delegate counts regardless because they're so bad it hurts

So far tho the delegate assessments coming out of the Paul camp have been pretty solid, in fact part of what makes them as accurate as they are is that Paul isn't throwing out hard number guesses like most of the others who claim to have counts.

Agree for the most part.

The trouble the news media runs into is that they allocate the unbound delegates...which you simply cant do.

THe thread in my sig is leaves the unbounds as unbounds. I recommend everyone check it out

 

[PolicyReader]

Agree for the most part.

The trouble the news media runs into is that they allocate the unbound delegates...which you simply cant do.

THe thread in my sig is leaves the unbounds as unbounds. I recommend everyone check it out

For anyone who's wondering I support the thread in question. It is in fact the closet to a true delegate count that I've seen.
One key and very important thing that CTRattlesnake does which almost no one else does at all is to present a current as opposed to a projected delegate count. This is worlds more accurate for a number of reasons.

btw, CT thanks for doing the heavy lifting on that thread I've ref'ed it multiple times for various reasons so you have my gratitude for putting it together

 

[DonovanJames]

The way I feel the Mainstream Media reports is closely paralleled to a neighborhood of enclosed dogs. One dog smells some shit then begins to bark. The other dogs, not be left out in this monumental discovery of complete shit will then too, begin to bark. It is at the peak of this cacophony of noise that you have to wonder, "What the hell are they all barking about?" -- A simple whistle and continuation of walking will usually subside these canine pundits.

This just in! "Bark bark bark!"

 

[opinionatedfool]

Doug Wead rocks!

 

[devil21]

That write-up only covers a little bit. Paulites across the country are winning delegate spots, even if we're not completely dominating the process like in Missouri.

 

[DonovanJames]

That write-up only covers a little bit. Paulites across the country are winning delegate spots, even if we're not completely dominating the process like in Missouri.

We're also the majority of the executive committee in Nevada.. and contesting seats in every Republican Central Committee across the nation

 

[jdcole]

Paultard
Paulbot
Paulite
Ronulan

Wear them all with pride, gents.

 

[papitosabe]

I prefer Paultard. Has that special ring to it.

lol...that term has actually been banned as offensive in another forum i'm in...

 

[papitosabe]

Agree for the most part.

The trouble the news media runs into is that they allocate the unbound delegates...which you simply cant do.

THe thread in my sig is leaves the unbounds as unbounds. I recommend everyone check it out

so what if willard hits 1144 including unbound ones that were semi-allocated to him?? does the show still go on?? and does the unbound delegate situation only work if there is a brokered convention?

sorry, i know this has probably been explained a million times, probably incorrectly, but wanted to hear y'alls thoughts..

 

[sailingaway]

so what if willard hits 1144 including unbound ones that were semi-allocated to him?? does the show still go on?? and does the unbound delegate situation only work if there is a brokered convention?

sorry, i know this has probably been explained a million times, probably incorrectly, but wanted to hear y'alls thoughts..

the unbound ones semi allocated to him? Meaning they were ACTUALLY allocated to him in conventions etc?

I'm suspecting unless he gets 1144 BOUND ones, we go on, since unbound is unbound. 'unbound' means you can vote for whomever you want and the straw poll was like Rasmussen, not relevant to delegates. But I could see where if we thought he had his 'slates' picked in conventions for that number, he'd likely get it on the first ballot. That some TV station misallocated unbound delegates to him wouldn't be a deciding factor though, I would think...

 

[papitosabe]

the unbound ones semi allocated to him? Meaning they were ACTUALLY allocated to him in conventions etc?

I'm suspecting unless he gets 1144 BOUND ones, we go on, since unbound is unbound. 'unbound' means you can vote for whomever you want and the straw poll was like Rasmussen, not relevant to delegates. But I could see where if we thought he had his 'slates' picked in conventions for that number, he'd likely get it on the first ballot. That some TV station misallocated unbound delegates to him wouldn't be a deciding factor though, I would think...

***by semi-allocated, i meant that if he won a state for ex. he got those delegates even though they are unbound...

ok, gotcha...so he's gotta have 1144 bound....but say for the sake of argument, he had 1140 bound ones, and a state which he won had 4 unbound, but they still truly were going to vote for him...the race would still go on until he got 4 more bound ones, correct?

 

[sailingaway]

***by semi-allocated, i meant that if he won a state for ex. he got those delegates even though they are unbound...

ok, gotcha...so he's gotta have 1144 bound....but say for the sake of argument, he had 1140 bound ones, and a state which he won had 4 unbound, but they still truly were going to vote for him...the race would still go on until he got 4 more bound ones, correct?

At that point I'm not sure. That is the 'slate' scenario. If we know they are Romney folks....

but if it were literally only FOUR and he was that close to the number, we might go on figuring some percentage won't end up going and one of our alternates or someone else's would take their place. At SOME point it might be evident enough that he had them, but it isn't likely to be for a long time. That Ron and Jesse are looking to states as late as Texas and CALIFORNIA (June) tells me they plan to be in it all the way, looking at it from the ground today.

 

[georgiaboy]

from sparks to brushfires to wildfires to forest fires to a full blown inferno.

Forecast? A dry, hot, windy summer.

 

[WilliamC]

Ronulan, Paulbot, Paultard, Paulitician, Paulocrat, Ron Paul Republican, the Remnant, whatever label you chose to wear.

I am a sovereign individual and I've come to take my freedom back from the Federal government, and if you want yours for yourself I don't care what you call yourself we can work together towards that common goal, other differences between us notwithstanding.

Since Ron Paul is the only candidate that recognizes me and you as being sovereign over our own lives then it is in our mutual interests to support him, and through him the Republican party which he is a part of.

I will not give my support, tacit or otherwise, to any candidate who wants to tax my income, tell me how to spend my money, restrict my ability to keep and bear arms at all times in public, tells me what I can say or what god I can worship, or who wants to force me to give up my rights to any peaceful behavior in exchange for security and protection.

 

[Aratus]

i'm glad the approach is working

 

[PolicyReader]

***by semi-allocated, i meant that if he won a state for ex. he got those delegates even though they are unbound...

ok, gotcha...so he's gotta have 1144 bound....but say for the sake of argument, he had 1140 bound ones, and a state which he won had 4 unbound, but they still truly were going to vote for him...the race would still go on until he got 4 more bound ones, correct?

At that point I'm not sure. That is the 'slate' scenario. If we know they are Romney folks....

but if it were literally only FOUR and he was that close to the number, we might go on figuring some percentage won't end up going and one of our alternates or someone else's would take their place. At SOME point it might be evident enough that he had them, but it isn't likely to be for a long time. That Ron and Jesse are looking to states as late as Texas and CALIFORNIA (June) tells me they plan to be in it all the way, looking at it from the ground today.

In the most literal sense the race will go on until one of two things happens.
(A) All candidates save one withdraw.
(B) A single candidate gains 1,144 bound delegates.

I haven't read all the RNC bylaws so perhaps there's some other case I'm unaware of but that pretty much covers it.
Based on projections Romney won't hit what he needs to end the race until after Utah (final state) and those projections have made two assumptions;
(A) Gingrich drops (may still happen but he's already stayed in longer than was assumed)
(B) The delegate math used by the AP is accurate and unchangeable. (both tenets of this assumption are flawed)

Drawing from the current arc Romney will fall short on the first ballot at the convention, considerations of Super delegates aside. The real question is will he fall short by a large enough margin that his Super delegate supporters fail to make up the gap? (I suppose a secondary question would be, will everyone stay in the race long enough to maintain current trends but that's true of every extrapolation/projection, if you change the baseline the projection becomes inaccurate)

All of this also glosses over the possible implication of the rules discussed in This Thread

 

[Xenophage]

I'm picky. While I apreciate that the Romulans fought to defeat the evil, statist Borg, Paulista is the only one of those nick names that doesn't make my lip curl.

Be that as it may, I'm fairly used to all of them, just not from friends.

I actually use the word Ronulan in reference to myself a lot! LOL!

I love it!

 

[Athan]

More like Ronvolutionaries, m I rite guys?