The Official BREXIT Thread

Queue? Obama’s use of British English makes Brits suspicious.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...se-of-british-english-makes-brits-suspicious/

President Obama was in London on Friday, where he delivered a passionate plea to Britain to vote to remain in the European Union in an upcoming referendum.

The American leader's intervention in the country's fierce "Brexit" row has proven remarkably divisive in London, with some politicians attacking him for being "anti-British" and others suggesting that Obama's part-Kenyan heritage led to an "ancestral dislike of the British empire."

Obama was apparently not fazed. During a joint news conference with Britain's David Cameron on Friday afternoon, he offered a stern warning of the potential consequences for the transatlantic relationship should Britain leave the E.U. However, it wasn't just Obama's warnings that gained attention among the Brits – it was a subtle stylistic shift in the way he worded those warnings.

“I think it’s fair to say maybe some point down the line, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our focus is on negotiating with the E.U.,” Obama told reporters. “The U.K. is going to be at the back of the queue.”

Obama was simply repeating a warning made before by U.S. officials: that the U.S. is not interested in bilateral trade deals with individual countries, and that they would focus instead on deals with larger organizations like the E.U. However, the president's choice of words when making this point left many gobsmacked. The president of the United States had used the word "queue," typically used by Brits, rather than "line," considered the proper term in American English.

Some Brits quickly grew suspicious – was Obama pandering to his audience with this Britishism? Or was this a secret sign that someone British had been helping him craft his speech?






Okay, it's certainly true that queue is used relatively rarely in American English: As the Oxford English Dictionary says in its listing for the word, it is a "chiefly British" word. But this isn't exactly a smoking gun. As James Ball of Buzzfeed UK was quick to point out on Twitter, Obama has actually used the word "queue" a number of times before.

You can see it in this White House transcript from 2010, for example, when Obama says: "There were several people who were still in the queue who didn’t have a chance to speak prior to us breaking." Or in another transcript from 2011, when he says: "Could I just say that Chuck is the only guy who asked two questions — so far. So just — when I cut off here, whoever was next in the queue — I’m messing with you, Chuck." Or in yet another transcript from two years after that, when he says: "We’ve got to make sure that we have a legal immigration system that doesn’t cause people to sit in the queue for 5 years, 10 years, 15 years — in some cases, 20 years."

The instances of Obama using "queue" do seem relatively rare, but they exist and they appear to be off-the-cuff comments. And importantly, in none of the above examples was the president being used to trick British people to not act in their own interest. In fact, Obama has something of a habit of using British English. According to Not One-Off Britishisms, a blog run by University of Delaware English professor Ben Yagoda with the aim of catching the British English that enters into American daily life, the president has also been caught saying things like "full stop," "run to ground" and "take a decision."

Why would Obama be keen on British English? Well, you could probably make an argument that it comes from his father, who spoke English with a British accent. Additionally, for years people have noted that Obama's use of language tends to shift depending on his audience – it's certainly plausible that on Friday, he was subconsciously placating those worried about Britain's sovereignty with the use of some British English. Or perhaps it was simply an attempt to sound fancy.

He may also be a fan of Netflix. Yes, in 2014 the New Republic warned that "Americans have started saying 'queue,' " because of the popular movie-and-television subscription service, which uses the word to refer to a playlist. To some that may sound like rubbish, but there are plenty of other signs that British English is seeping into American English more and more regularly.
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OECD warns of ‘Brexit tax’ if UK leaves EU

http://www.euronews.com/2016/04/28/oecd-warns-of-brexit-tax-if-uk-leaves-eu/

04/28/16




It will cost the average British household the equivalent of a month’s salary of around 2,800 euros by 2020 if they vote to leave the European Union in a June referendum.

That’s the warning from the the west’s leading economics thinktank, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. (OECD).

It was made by its chief Angel Gurria during a lecture at the London School of Economics.

“Brexit would, rather like a tax, hit the wellbeing and the pockets of UK citizens. Unlike most taxes, however, this one will not finance the provision of public services or close the fiscal gap. The ‘Brexit tax’ would be a pure deadweight loss,” said Gurria.

Echoing the assessment made by the Treasury earlier this month, the chief of the 34-nation OECD said the costs of exit would increase over time. “By 2030, in a central scenario GDP would be over five percent lower than otherwise,” it said, “with the cost of Brexit equivalent to £2,200 per household (in today’s prices).” The Treasury predicted that the economy would be six percent smaller by 2030.



Gurria also said those campaigning to leave the EU were “delusional” over Britain’s trading prospects which he said would suffer from less access to the bloc’s single market.

“Our conclusion is unequivocal. The UK is much stronger as a part of Europe and Europe is much stronger with the UK as a driving force. There is no upside for the UK in Brexit.”

The OECD’s entry into the debate has not been welcomed by the Out campaign. They have challenged the organisation’s credibility, recalling how it had once suggested Britain might benefit from joining the euro currency.



They have also accused the organisation of making “improbable assumptions” that a post-Brexit Britain would initially have less favourable trading ties with the EU than South Korea or Mexico.



British economists who support leaving the EU will announce their results shortly.

QEGnrPe.png


Graph shows an aggregate of the six most recent opinion polls of voting intentions. Source: whatukthinks.org
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Donald Trump Backs UK Leaving European Union

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presi...donald-trump-backs-uk-leaving-european-union/

5 May 2016

WASHINGTON, DC – Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has said he thinks Britain would be better off out of the European Union. His comments come just one day after British Prime Minister David Cameron, who is campaigning for an ‘in’ vote, said he would not apologise to Mr. Trump for calling him “stupid.”

Speaking to Fox News this evening Mr Trump reflected on the EU and the migration crisis.

He said: “I think the migration has been a horrible thing for Europe. A lot of that was pushed by the EU. I would say that they’re better off without it personally, but I’m not making that as a recommendation – just my feeling … I would say that they’re better off without it, but I want them to make their own decision”.

Mr. Trump has previously shied away from involving himself in the Brexit debate despite being dragged into UK politics by parliamentarians and activists who sought to ban him from the country after his assertion that there should be a pause on mass Muslim immigration to the United States.

U.S. President Barack Obama waded into the debate last month during a visit to the United Kingdom where he told a press conference with Mr Cameron that it was in America’s interest for Britain to remain in the expanding political union.

Mr. Trump all but secured his party’s nomination this week, beating out Ted Cruz and John Kasich in Indiana’s primary, leading the pair to suspend their campaigns.

Britain will vote on June 23 on whether to leave the European Union.
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Brexit vote may spark recession, Mark Carney warns

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36273448

The Bank of England has given its starkest warning yet that a UK vote to leave the EU could hit the economy.
A leave vote may cause sterling to fall and unemployment to rise, according to the latest minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
Mark Carney, the Bank's governor, warned that the risks of leaving "could possibly include a technical recession".
Vote Leave said there was no need for more forward guidance from the Bank.
The Bank had not compiled formal forecasts about the possibility of a recession - defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth - resulting from a Brexit vote, Mr Carney added.
Chancellor George Osborne said the UK now had a "clear and unequivocal warning" from the MPC as well as the Governor of the Bank of England about the risks of a Leave vote.
"The Bank is saying that it would face a trade-off between stabilising inflation on one hand and stabilising output and employment on the other," he said.
"So either families would face lower incomes because inflation would be higher, or the economy would be weaker with a hit to jobs and livelihoods. This is a lose-lose situation for Britain. Either way, we'd be poorer."
Lord Lamont, the former Chancellor and Vote Leave spokesman, said: "The Governor should be careful that he doesn't cause a crisis. If his unwise words become self-fulfilling, the responsibility will be the governor's and the governor's alone. A prudent governor would simply have said that 'we are prepared for all eventualities'."

The Bank's latest quarterly Inflation Report, released on Thursday, predicted that economic growth would slow in the second quarter of the year, but pick up in the second half. It also cut the growth outlook for the next three years.
The report also forecast that inflation would reach 0.9% in September if long as the UK stayed in the EU.
The MPC unanimously voted to keep interest rates at 0.5%.
Analysis: Kamal Ahmed, economics editor
In the Bank of England's assessment of the health of the UK economy, one ringing sentence jumps out: "The most significant risks to the [economic] forecast concern the referendum," the Monetary Policy Committee says.
It goes on to reveal that far from this simply being a judgement on what Bank officials describe as the "uncertainty spike" around the fact the referendum is taking place at all - this is a judgement that Brexit would have a material effect on the economy.
In a Bank world of carefully chosen words, "material" means significant. And significantly downwards.

The Inflation Report said that uncertainty over the EU referendum was already weighing on economic activity: "There is evidence that a material proportion of the 9% fall in sterling exchange rate since its peak in November could reflect referendum effects.
"It is hard to judge how much of the slowdown reflects a loss of underlying momentum and so may persist and how much is likely to unwind if uncertainty recedes following the referendum. Referendum effects will also make it harder to interpret economic indicators over the next few months."
However, it noted that the MPC would face the difficult choice of raising rates to control inflation or lowering them to stimulate the economy.
The Report said that inflation probably fell back to 0.3% in April from 0.5% in March, reflecting the falls in oil and food prices over the last year and the strength of sterling in the same period.
It expected inflation to return to the target 2% level by mid-2018 as these factors faded out.
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IMF says Brexit 'pretty bad to very, very bad'

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36284200



The International Monetary Fund chief has said a vote by the UK to leave the European Union would have "pretty bad, to very, very bad" consequences.
Christine Lagarde said she had "not seen anything that's positive" about Brexit and warned that it could "lead to a technical recession".
She echoed similar comments made on Thursday by Bank of England governor Mark Carney.
Vote Leave said the IMF had been wrong in the past and was "wrong now".
The IMF said in a report on the UK economy that a leave vote could have a "negative and substantial effect". It has previously said that such an outcome could lead to "severe regional and global damage".
The Fund said a Brexit vote would result in a "protracted period of heightened uncertainty" and could result in a sharp rise in interest rates, cause volatility on financial markets and damage London's status as a global financial centre.
Ms Lagarde said the IMF had a duty to assess the risks of Brexit. It has a mandate to oversee the international monetary and financial system.
The Fund is expected to publish detailed estimates of the economic impact of a vote to leave the EU in the week before the 23 June referendum, the timing of which has been criticised by leave campaigners.
It was not just a domestic issue but an international one as well, Ms Lagarde told a briefing at the Treasury attended by the Chancellor, George Osborne.
"I don't think that in the last six months I have visited a country anywhere in the world where I have not been asked 'what will be the economic consequences of Brexit?" she said.

Asked if the Treasury had had any input into the IMF's conclusions, Ms Lagarde responded: "Heck no! If you are suggesting that, you don't know the IMF."
Priti Patel MP, who is backing the leave campaign, said the IMF was "wrong then and they are wrong now. It appears the Chancellor is cashing in favours to Ms Lagarde in order to encourage the IMF to bully the British people."
Lord Lamont, a former chancellor, said: "This daily avalanche of institutional propaganda is becoming ludicrous and pitiful. Important institutions are being politicised and used to make blood-curdling forecasts.
"There are plenty of respected individual economists, plenty of respected professional investors, and plenty of entrepreneurs who take a very different view from Christine Lagarde and who have probably been better at foreseeing the future than the IMF."

Britain Stronger in Europe chairman Lord Rose said: "This is yet another economic expert that agrees Britain is stronger in Europe, adding to the comments of the Bank of England."
Former Treasury minister Lord Myners, who backs staying in the EU, added: "Every major independent economic institution, from the Bank of England to the IMF, has made it clear that leaving the EU would damage the UK economy. This is yet more evidence that leaving is a risk we cannot afford to take."
The Fund said it expected UK growth to fall below 2% for the full year in 2016 before returning to an average of 2.25% over the medium term.
However, the IMF said that this "broadly positive" forecast was subject to notable risks, the biggest of which was the EU referendum, but also the low level of household savings, high levels of household debt, a wide current account deficit and concerns that productivity growth will not rise significantly.

Priti Patel MP accused the IMF of 'bullying' UK voters
Concerns about a possible Brexit may have affected UK markets in recent months, according to the Fund.
It pointed to a 40% decline in the number of commercial real estate transactions in the first three months of the year.
Deciding whether to remain in the EU was a choice for voters to make, the IMF said, adding that "their decisions will reflect both economic and non-economic factors".
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Her threats sound horrible...
(when is the next election?)
Very sad times for England.

It will just get worse every minute,
so they had better hurry up and just
GET OUT OF THE EU, RIGHT BLOODY NOW!

+++

p.s. Did anyone watch the Sefbot YT in post #34?
 
Johnson Invokes Hitler as Brexit Debate Heats Up

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...johnson-as-team-brexit-seeks-carney-s-silence

Brexit campaigners invoked Adolf Hitler as a parallel with the European Union and criticized the Bank of England governor, evidence of the debate becoming increasingly caustic six weeks before Britain’s referendum.
The two-pronged offensive began with former Mayor of London Boris Johnson making the historical analogy in an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, saying attempts to unify the region tend to end “tragically.” Allies backed him in that analysis and also used media appearances to criticize Mark Carney for the BOE’s warning of the economic consequences of a vote to leave, forcing the governor to defend his actions.
The remarks reflect pressure points in the fight over EU membership that were underscored in a ComRes poll published over the weekend showing Brexit arguments for the June 23 vote are convincing people more on national security grounds than on the economy. The Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund last week both released analyses on the risks of an exit, and Carney insisted that was the right thing to do.

‘Daily Business’
“If we’re potentially going to alter the path of interest rates or other instruments of monetary policy because of certain things manifested, we have a duty to explain that to the British people and to Parliament,” Carney told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show. “The bank’s comments on these issues have been in the context of testimony to the House of Lords, testimony to the Commons committees, and inflation reports and associated press conferences around those reports, so it’s in our daily business.”
He spoke days after Conservative lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg told Sky News that the governor “should be fired,” and minutes after the Conservative energy minister, Andrea Leadsom, described the BOE’s comments last week as “incredibly dangerous.”
Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative former work and pensions secretary who is campaigning to leave, added his voice to the criticism, saying on the BBC’s Sunday Politics show that the governor should explain to Parliament’s Treasury Committee why he hasn’t presented both sides of the matter.
Duncan Smith also defended Johnson’s mention of Hitler. The former mayor’s allusion came in an interview that ranged from what wartime leader Winston Churchill would do to a discussion of the euro’s effect on Italy.
‘Ends Tragically’
“The truth is that the history of the last couple of thousand years has been broadly repeated attempts by various people or institutions -- in a Freudian way -- to rediscover the lost childhood of Europe, this golden age of peace and prosperity under the Romans, by trying to unify it,” Johnson was quoted as saying. “Napoleon, Hitler, various people tried this out, and it ends tragically.”
While Rees-Mogg voiced his support of that view on Peston’s Politics on ITV, the comments provoked outrage from supporters of the “remain” camp.
“Leave campaigners have lost the economic argument and now they are losing their moral compass,” Labour Party lawmaker Hilary Benn, who speaks on foreign affairs, was quoted by the Guardian as saying. “After the horror of the Second World War, the EU helped to bring an end to centuries of conflict in Europe, and for Boris Johnson to make this comparison is both offensive and desperate.”
The exchange of verbal blows coincided with new polling by ComRes published in the Independent on Sunday, which showed that 45 percent of voters trust Johnson to tell the truth about Europe, compared with 21 percent saying the same of Prime Minister David Cameron.
The poll also found that on national security, 42 percent said it would be better to leave the EU, compared to 38 percent favoring remaining. Questioned on the economy, 33 percent said that they would be personally better off with the U.K. remaining, compared with 29 percent favoring leaving on that count, and 38 percent saying they didn’t know.
That focus on the economy has proven crucial in general elections, and an unidentified polling specialist with links to Cameron’s office was cited by the Mail on Sunday as saying that it will be decisive in the referendum. Their private prediction was for a vote of 58 percent in favor of remaining in the EU, compared with 42 against, the newspaper said.
Addressing the prospects for Britain’s economy, leaders of business groups across the Commonwealth spoke out on Sunday in favor a vote to remain, in a release from the Confederation of British Industry, the country’s biggest business lobby. It included comments from representatives in Canada, India, South Africa, Singapore, Kenya and Jamaica.
Playing to the same theme, Business Secretary Sajid Javid said that despite being “a euroskeptic and proud of it,” he still believes Britain is better off in the EU.
“Do businesses want the benefits and security of continued access to the single market, or the instability and uncertainty of a lost decade?” he wrote in an article on the Sunday Telegraph’s website. “However you feel about Europe, whether you’re an enthusiastic federalist or an ardent advocate of leaving, that is the question you have to answer on 23 June. And from where I’m standing, there’s only one answer – a vote to remain.”
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Over 250 British celebrities back remaining in EU in a letter

http://www.reuters.com/video/2016/05/20/british-celebrities-back-remaining-in-eu?videoId=368576472

Friday, May 20, 2016



British actors Benedict Cumberbatch, Keira Knightley, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Helena Bonham Carter are among more than 250 celebrities from the arts world who have signed a letter urging Britons to vote to remain in the European Union. Some of Britain's best-known artists, musicians and writers are also signatories to the letter in the Guardian newspaper that warns of the country becoming "an outsider shouting from the wings" if Britons vote to leave the EU in a June 23 referendum. "Britain is not just stronger in Europe, it is more imaginative and more creative ... Our global creative success would be severely weakened by walking away," they said. The letter was coordinated by "Stronger In", the official campaign to persuade voters to stay in the EU that is also backed by Prime Minister David Cameron. Cameron's governing Conservative Party is deeply split over the issue. Other signatories to the letter include singer Paloma Faith, designer Vivienne Westwood and writer John Le Carre. The move by "Stronger In" is likely to be seen as an attempt to broaden the EU debate beyond economics and immigration. Though opinion polls have given sharply different pictures of public opinion, betting odds on Friday indicated a 79 percent implied probability of Britain voting to stay in the EU.
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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/20/luvvies-brexit-letter-eu-largesse
The luvvies’ Brexit letter only shows most people vote with their wallets

That our lucky stars of stage and screen benefit from the EU’s largesse should hardly be a clincher for anybody else
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