The Official BREXIT Thread

jllundqu

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http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

Lord willing, the Brits will sack up and kick the Eurozone right in the twig and giggle-berries. The UK needs to leave the EU, out of self-preservation if not anything else.

This site should be totally promoting this and other efforts to bring the world closer to liberty. Friends of human liberty like Farange and Hanaan and others across the pond should get our support.



Who thinks there will be a false flag in the UK before the vote on 23 June? :toady:

Who thinks the Euroskeptics will end up at the bottom of an elevator shaft or have yet another plane crash (see Nigel Farange)?

Countdown to June 23 begins! GO UK! GO BREXIT!!
 
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

Lord willing, the Brits will sack up and kick the Eurozone right in the twig and giggle-berries. The UK needs to leave the EU, out of self-preservation if not anything else.

This site should be totally promoting this and other efforts to bring the world closer to liberty. Friends of human liberty like Farange and Hanaan and others across the pond should get our support.
I completely agree. Farage also is a Rand Paul supporter.. We are likeminded in many ways. On liberty and self-determination mostly. Maybe less on the details... But we sure can have an international coalition of liberty loving individuals who don't want globalization and are in general for a more humanistic approach to things.

Who thinks there will be a false flag in the UK before the vote on 23 June? :toady:
Don't know but probably not.

Who thinks the Euroskeptics will end up at the bottom of an elevator shaft or have yet another plane crash (see Nigel Farange)?
Very unlikely. The resulting sympathy from their deaths would massively increase peoples dedication to vote for BREXIT.

Countdown to June 23 begins! GO UK! GO BREXIT!!
I might cross the pond to help them campaign a bit if I'm able to.
 
I guess this is a NO?

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I guess this is a NO?

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Hell yeah. (green is in favor / red is against.. more or less obvious)

The 30% turnout was needed to make it a valid referendum. (Turnout = 'opkomst')

There's still some voting going on on the Islands in the Caribbean that belong to the kingdom. Their polls close in 3 hours.
 
I think one of the major arguments for the 'out' campaign to combat the scaremongering of the 'stay' campaign should be;

"Imagine the UK wasn't a member of the EU, would you vote to join today ?"

Or something like it. Because the thing is, people can always find some arguments for why it's convenient to stay.. People like the status quo and the thought of real change makes a lot of people soil their pants. So turn it around. Pretty much everyone I know who wouldn't necessarily vote to leave (Dutch people) say they wouldn't have voted to join if they knew it would come to what the EU is now. A corrupt power-eusurping near-unstoppable beast that's ravaging the European continent. Destroying it's wealth and freedoms but most of all, it's identity. Selling us out to the Chinese, international banks...

Anyways, I really really hope the people in the UK vote to leave. If they'd vote to stay I don't think much good would come from that. The EU would be emboldened to start further expansions of it's borders and it's powers. And they would use the UK vote as license to do it. Really scary stuff. I do believe in a democratic, political solution to these problems.. Sadly some of the people we disagree with do not. As has been evidenced by decades of EU officials pissing in voters faces.
 
The people's army will prevail over anti-democratic EU - Nigel Farage, UKIP Leader



• Nigel Farage MEP, Leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), Co-President of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) Group in the European Parliament - http://www.nigelfaragemep.co.uk @Nigel_Farage

• Debate: Conclusions of the European Council meeting of 17 and 18 March 2016 and outcome of the EU-Turkey summit
European Council and Commission statements
[2016/2546(RSP)]

Transcript:
I'm very surprised. We're here in what I was told repeatedly is the home of European democracy, and so, surely, we could have taken the opportunity this morning to celebrate the Dutch referendum last week in which the people said No to EU enlargement, No to the deal with the Ukraine. And no doubt had it been Turkey an even bigger number of people would have said No to Turkish accession.

So it was a victory for democracy, but in paricular it was a victory for a little organisation called Geenpeil, a group of young bloggers who managed to get together 427,000 signatures.

So it was a victory as well for direct democracy - and this in the week when we remember that Gianroberto Casaleggio, the genius behind the 5-Star Movement in Italy, has died.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is new politics. And yet, we were told by Mr Juncker that if the Dutch voted No it would be a disaster. But he hasn't mentioned it today at all. And indeed your predecessor Mr Van Rompuy, my old mate, says we should carry on lively.

So what we're seeing is the big battalions of vested best interest doing their best to completely ignore the will of the Ducth people.

Well, I think that things are changing. I don't believe these institutions can survive 21st Century technology. I think the will of the people is changing politics in a way that makes all of you in this room deeply fearful - and so you should be.

And as we in the united Kingdom enter the final countdown of our referendum, all eyes are on this Turkish deal. And I think what we see is, we see the bosses of the EU bowing and scraping before Mr Erdogan who gleefully walks all over you, tramples over human rights at every level - and for Mr Juncker to tell us this morning that we're making progress!

Let's just examine that.

1.8 million people have come to the EU in the last eighteen months and we've sent back 300. It doesn't sound, sir, that it's going very well to me.

The one group that will be pleased though are ISIS. They have now managed to put 5,000 of their operatives into the European continent, according to the boss of Europol - something that should send a shiver down our collective spines.

I have to say that in the end, I think it's what the British referendum will turn on. I think we will vote for Brexit, and the reason is we'll vote to put our own safety first.

It is going to be as it was in the Netherlands last week - a battle of people vs the politicians. You may have the big money and the big businesses and Goldman Sachs, but we've got our armies of bloggers, and in the end the people's will is going to prevail. This place won't survive.

[This was followed by a bluecard question from Swedish MEP Peter Erikson, Greens] @3:30 in the video
....................
• Video: EbS (European Parliament)
 
Brexit campaign is doomed – if bookmakers are right again

https://theconversation.com/brexit-campaign-is-doomed-if-bookmakers-are-right-again-57514

As we edge closer to the EU referendum on June 23, the latest opinion polls put the Remain and Leave campaigns either neck and neck or at least close together.

But the reputation of opinion polls has plummeted following their abject failure to predict the winner of last year’s general election. According to a recent independent review by Professor Patrick Sturgis of the University of Southampton, inadequate sampling procedures led to biased estimates of party support.

Prediction markets, which are often based on betting odds, are an increasingly popular alternative for predicting election outcomes. When you look at their past performance, they have been relatively successful. Where opinion polling tends to be irregular and noisy because of the different sampling methods used by the various companies involved, betting data is collected continuously and on a consistent basis.

Prediction markets successfully forecast the outcome of the Scottish referendum of 2014, for example. Whereas the opinion polls suggested the outcome was uncertain and increasingly hard to call nearer the vote, the betting odds always suggested that the probability of a majority vote for independence was quite small.

So what are the odds for the Brexit referendum? The most recent data, as you can see from the chart below, suggests that the probability of a Leave vote is around 30%, with the chance of a Remain vote being correspondingly around 70%.

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These data are based on www.oddschecker.com, which lists more than 20 companies which have offered odds on the referendum at different times. The most active is Matchbook, which frequently offers multiple small variations in its odds during a single day. The odds from the different companies are transformed into estimates of the average daily probability for each outcome, going back as far as last May if you click the “All” box on the chart.

Events, dear boy …

You can also see the timing of some key events which might have been expected to influence the odds, such as when David Cameron announced the referendum date. When an event doesn’t make much difference – that announcement did not – it might be because it was expected and has therefore already been discounted by punters.

On the other hand, Iain Duncan Smith’s resignation was arguably a surprise, but it had little impact on the odds. This suggests that those placing bets did not feel this event would have a significant effect on the referendum outcome.

Similarly, Tory leadership pretender Boris Johnson’s decision to throw his weight behind the Leave campaign had little impact.

The only good news for Brexit supporters is that there has been some whittling away of the advantage enjoyed by the Remain campaign since the beginning of March. When the referendum was called, the probability of leaving was around 29%. It fell to 27% in early March but has been rising since, before levelling off in the last few days of that month.

The most recent data at time of writing, for April 7, suggests that the probability of Britain leaving the EU has now reached 33% – a one in three chance. Even so, there is still a clear feeling among those with a monetary interest in the outcome that the UK will remain part of the European Union.

Indeed, the highest odds in favour of a Leave vote were last November, giving a 39% probability. Save this page and we’ll keep updating the chart as we get closer to the referendum. If you want to cut through the noise of the opinion polls, these are probably the numbers to watch.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-18/gove-attacks-cameron-s-case-for-the-eu-as-tory-divisions-deepen

U.K. Brexit Vote Would Be End of EU as We Know It, Gove Says

Justice Secretary Michael Gove said a British vote to leave the European Union on June 23 would spark a reaction among people across Europe that would force the 28-nation bloc to change beyond recognition.

There would be a “democratic liberation” of Europe, with opponents of budget cuts, austerity and regulation imposed by the EU following Britain’s lead in a so-called Brexit and overturning decades of bureaucratic and undemocratic centralization, Gove said in a speech in London on Tuesday.
For Europe, Britain voting to leave will be the beginning of something potentially even more exciting -- the democratic liberation of a whole continent,” he said. U.K. success outside the bloc will “send a message to the EU’s peoples, they will see that a different Europe is possible. It is possible to regain democratic control of your own country and currency, to trade and cooperate with other EU nations without surrendering sovereignty to a remote and unelected bureaucracy.”

Gove further deepened divisions in the Tory party by pouring scorn on arguments by Cameron and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne that EU nations would block trade with the U.K. in the event of a Brexit. His adviser, Dominic Cummings, told reporters he had spoken to “umpteen” ambassadors who said they would do a deal with Britain after a “Leave” vote but weren’t allowed to say so in public.

Gove, one of Cameron’s closest political allies before the two decided to back different sides in the referendum, also used the speech to belittle two of the main gains the prime minister cited from his negotiations with other European leaders before he called the vote.




An opt-out from the EU drive toward “ever closer union,” which Cameron heralded as a major victory, “makes no difference,” Gove said. He also warned that concessions won by Cameron on access to welfare, which the premier claimed would slow immigration to the U.K., won’t work.

‘Safer Choice’

With fewer than 10 weeks to go until the plebiscite, both sides of the argument are ramping up their rhetoric over the merits of EU membership. On Monday, Osborne warned that a Brexit would cause “permanent” damage to the U.K. economy. Gove responded that a vote to leave is the “safer choice” for Britain.

“If we vote to stay we are not settling for the status quo, we are voting to be a hostage, locked in the boot of a car driven by others to a place and at a pace that we have no control over,” Gove said. “If we vote to leave we take back control.”

Polling is inconclusive, with some indicating the vote will be tight, and others showing a lead for the “remain” side. An Orb poll for the Telegraph published on Tuesday showed 52 percent of voters plan to opt to remain, with 43 percent choosing to leave. YouGov Plc’s most recent polls show a much narrower margin.

Immigration Warning

Cameron, who first pledged the referendum as a way of placating Euro-skeptics in his party, is facing a widening rift. Gove and Mayor of London Boris Johnson have the support of many rank-and-file lawmakers and activists for their campaign, while Cameron and Osborne are leading the attempt to keep Britain in the bloc.

“If we do vote to stay in the EU then immigration will continue to increase by hundreds of thousands year on year,” Gove said. “Over 250,000 people came to Britain from Europe last year. As long as we are in the EU we cannot control our borders and cannot develop an immigration policy which is both truly humane and in our long term economic interests.”

The justice secretary criticized a Treasury document, published on Monday, which analyzed some of the options available to Britain if voters choose to leave. Quitting the bloc would leave the U.K.’s economic output between 3.8 percent and 7.5 percent lower after 15 years, costing as much as 2,100 pounds ($3,000) per person, the Treasury said.

The Treasury isn’t alone in its analysis, with the International Monetary Fund, the London School of Economics and the CBI business lobby all saying EU membership boosts employment and the economy, Alan Johnson, who heads the opposition Labour Party’s “In for Britain” campaign, said Tuesday in a statement.

“Michael Gove wants to wish away reality, but the truth is every credible independent forecaster says Brexit will hurt our economy,” Johnson said. “The fact is Britain is better off remaining in the EU and no amount of false promises and bluster from the ‘Leave’ camp can change that.”
 
Barack Obama urges UK voters to 'stick together' with EU

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-london-with-eu-referendum-high-on-the-agenda

Barack Obama has made an emotional plea to the British public to “stick together” with the rest of the European Union, as he arrived in the UK to celebrate the Queen’s 90th birthday.

With the result of June’s referendum looking too close to call, the US president eschewed careful diplomatic language to make a direct appeal to voters to back the remain campaign.

“As citizens of the United Kingdom take stock of their relationship with the EU, you should be proud that the EU has helped spread British values and practices – democracy, the rule of law, open markets – across the continent and to its periphery,” he wrote in an article in the Daily Telegraph.

He evoked the close cooperation between the US and UK during the second world war, citing Franklin D Roosevelt’s toast to King George VI in 1939, when the president said: “I am persuaded that the greatest single contribution our two countries have been enabled to make to civilisation, and to the welfare of peoples throughout the world, is the example we have jointly set by our manner of conducting relations between our two nations.”

But contrary to the claims of some in the leave camp that the UK could strengthen its ties with the US by leaving the EU, Obama insisted: “I will say, with the candour of a friend, that the outcome of your decision is a matter of deep interest to the United States. The tens of thousands of Americans who rest in Europe’s cemeteries are a silent testament to just how intertwined our prosperity and security truly are.”

He added: “The US sees how your powerful voice in Europe ensures that Europe takes a strong stance in the world, and keeps the EU open, outward-looking, and closely linked to its allies on the other side of the Atlantic. So the US and the world need your outsized influence to continue – including within Europe.”

His unequivocal language is likely to infuriate leading figures in Vote Leave, the main anti-EU campaign, who believe the prime minister has been able to distort the public debate by calling on a range of global policymakers to support his case to remain.

Writing in the Sun newspaper, Boris Johnson accused the president of hypocrisy.

“The US guards its democracy with more hysterical jealousy than any other country on earth,” the mayor of London wrote. “It is not just that the Americans refuse to recognise the jurisdiction of the international criminal court, or that they have refused to sign up to the international convention on the law of the sea. America is the only country in the world that has so far failed to sign up to the UN convention on the rights of the child, or the UN convention on the emancipation of women.
“For the United States to tell us in the UK that we must surrender control of so much of our democracy is a breathtaking example of the principle of do as I say, not as I do. It is incoherent. It is inconsistent, and yes, it is downright hypocritical.”
Johnson called on the public to “channel the spirit of the early Obama” and believe in Britain again. “Can we take back control of our borders, our money and our system of government? Yes we can,” he said. “Can we stand on our own two feet? Yes we can.”

Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, said that by backing the remain campaign Obama was asking British citizens to accept a surrender of sovereignty that Americans would never be willing to contemplate.

“I have a huge amount of respect for America’s unrelenting commitment to the patriotic principle of self-governance. President Obama, and every one of his predecessors, have ferociously protected the sovereignty of the USA.”

The former home secretary Alan Johnson, chair of the Labour In for Britain campaign, defended Obama’s intervention. “President Obama is head of state in a country that has been Britain’s ally in war and in peace,” he said.

“US soldiers lost their lives in two world wars on our continent. Not only does this give the president an entitlement to comment, I believe he has an obligation to point out the wider ramifications of a British withdrawal from the EU.”

David Cameron will hold talks with the president during his visit on a range of foreign policy issues, including the battle against Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria.

Those talks will focus on how to retake the northern Iraqi city of Mosul – something that Obama has said he hopes may be possible by the end of this year.

Mosul, where Isis has its Iraqi headquarters, is viewed as the key strategic prize after Iraqi forces recently took back Ramadi, west of Baghdad. Britain is part of the US-led coalition that provides training and air support to Iraqi forces.

Cameron and Obama will also discuss the progress in taking on Isis in Syria, where British planes joined the US bombing campaign after the House of Commons voted to back military action in December.

Downing Street sources said that in total, across Syria and Iraq, coalition airstrikes had killed more than 25,000 fighters and destroyed or damaged more than 22,000 targets. They added: “The fall of Mosul is an important objective, and tomorrow’s [Friday’s] talks are expected to address how this will be achieved.”

Speaking before the trip, the prime minister said: “Daesh’s brutal campaign of terror is creating instability and causing unimaginable suffering in Syria, Iraq and beyond. I look forward to talking to the president about our joint efforts to root out extremism around the world. I am confident that Britain and the US can continue to build on a solid basis of friendship and a shared commitment to freedom, democracy and enterprise to shape a better world for future generations.”

Obama will attend a 90th birthday lunch for the Queen during his visit. He and Cameron will then fly to Germany for a summit with the German, Italian and French leaders on Monday about the future of Libya.

The United Nations envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, has said foreign powers should offer training and military support to Libya’s fledgling government, combined with an end to the UN arms embargo.

“The Daesh expansion can only be stopped militarily,” he said. “There is a consensus that a united Libyan army needs training; the lifting of the weapons embargo is very important.”

An assessment has circulated in foreign missions in Libya reporting that, in the past two weeks, the militant group has broken out of its base in the coastal town of Sirte.

The summit with European leaders has a wide agenda, but the presence of the Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, suggests a chief focus will be Libya, including the need to defeat Isis and stem the refugee crisis. The west is pressing the new Libyan government to seek permission for the EU’s Operation Sophia to operate inside Libyan waters, increasing the effectiveness of the EU’s efforts to defeat people smugglers.

Obama has described Libya as his biggest foreign policy mistake, and there is now no quick way to persuade the many Libyan factions to unite behind a stable UN-backed government of national accord.

Three weeks after he arrived in the capital, Libya’s prime minister, Fayez al-Sarraj, was shunned by both an Islamist-led Tripoli government and the elected parliament in Tobruk. The need to garner sufficient political support has led Sarraj to hold off from formally requesting western help, including allowing the west to operate in Libyan waters. His opponents are already accusing him of being a tool of the west.
 
Anger as London Mayor Tells 'Part-Kenyan' Obama to Butt Out

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wire...-campaign-annoyed-obama-intervention-38591978

London Mayor Boris Johnson, a leader of the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union, faced a flurry of criticism Friday for suggesting U.S. President Barack Obama may have an "ancestral dislike of the British Empire" because of his Kenyan roots.

On a visit to the U.K., Obama weighed in on Britain's debate about European Union membership, urging U.K. voters to back staying in the 28-nation bloc.

"I don't think the EU moderates U.K. influence in the world — it magnifies it," Obama said at a news conference with Prime Minister David Cameron.

His opinion — also expressed in a Daily Telegraph newspaper article — angered campaigners for a "leave" vote in the June 23 referendum, who accused the American president of meddling.

Johnson said Obama's advice was "paradoxical, inconsistent, incoherent" because Americans "would never contemplate anything like the EU for themselves."

Writing in The Sun newspaper, Johnson recounted a claim that a bust of former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill was removed from the Oval Office after Obama was elected and returned to the British Embassy.

Johnson wrote that some said removing the bust "was a symbol of the part-Kenyan president's ancestral dislike of the British Empire, of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender."

Obama's late father was from Kenya, a former British colony that gained independence in the 1960s.

Obama did not respond directly to the remarks about his ancestry. But he did mention the Churchill bust, saying the Oval Office had limited space and, as the first African-American U.S. president, he thought it was important to have a bust of Martin Luther King Jr. in the room.

He said the Churchill bust remained in a prominent White House location outside his private office "so that I see it every day — including on weekends when I'm going into that office to watch a basketball game."

"I love Winston Churchill," Obama said. "I love the guy."

Johnson said later that he was "a big fan of Barack Obama" and had not been trying to suggest the president was anti-British.

But the mayor's comments drew criticism from his political opponents. Former Liberal Democrat leader Menzies Campbell said "this attack constitutes an unacceptable smear."

"Many people will find Boris Johnson's loaded attack on President Obama's sincerity deeply offensive," he said.

Stephen Wall, former British permanent representative to the European Union, said: Johnson's comment about the president's Kenyan heritage "is demeaning to the debate," and Labour Party lawmaker Diane Abbott said that "Boris dismissing president Obama as 'half-Kenyan' reflects the worst Tea Party rhetoric."

Churchill's grandson Nicholas Soames — like Johnson a Conservative lawmaker — tweeted that Johnson's article was "totally wrong on almost everything."

"It is not compulsory to have head of WSC (Winston Spencer Churchill) in President's office. Stupid irrelevant empty point to make," he said.

Nigel Farage, leader of the anti-EU U.K. Independence Party — who told Obama bluntly to "butt out" — supported Johnson's remark.

"Because of his grandfather and Kenya and colonialization, I think Obama has a bit of a grudge against this country," he said.

After meeting Obama at 10 Downing St., Cameron was asked about the comments by Johnson — a political rival in the Conservative Party who aspires to succeed Cameron as prime minister.

"Questions for Boris are questions for Boris ..." he said. "They're not questions for me."
 

Dirty politics. We'll se a lot more of this, trying to tie certain personalities to one side of the debate in order to marginalize it.

This is the most meaningful vote in decades. Not just for the UK but for the entirety of Europe; it's a referendum with the potential to change the playing field completely. The thing is, normal elections have normal levels of dirty politics.. Which is bad enough. Normal elections, that elect representatives, don't have any direct effect on policy. This referendum has a really big, direct impact. The ruling class and worldwide elites are shit-scared their road to World Government is washed away by the tide of public awakening. They are truly fearful that the peoples, the general public isn't as stupid as they consider them to be and as they have treated them over the years.
 
Dirty politics. We'll se a lot more of this, trying to tie certain personalities to one side of the debate in order to marginalize it.

We need more dirty politics in US. We have a king who shows up once a year in congress to deliver fake as fuck speech and no questions asked. When someone yells 'You lie' during the speech it is a major crisis.
 
We need more dirty politics in US. We have a king who shows up once a year in congress to deliver fake as fuck speech and no questions asked. When someone yells 'You lie' during the speech it is a major crisis.

Dirty politics is generally not a good thing as it's most likely the establishments doing.
 
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